8:45 Newcastle Tips

He wouldn't have troubled the runaway winner at Ripon last time, but he was threading his way through the field when badly hampered and looked unlucky not to make the frame. He can make amends today by adding to his four course-and-distance wins off his lowest mark for over two years.

He's been steadily dropping in weight after competing against more demanding horses. Today he carries a very comfortable 9 stone 4 pounds, an ideal weight for maintaining a steady gallop on the Newcastle straight.

He reverts to a highly advantageous handicap mark at Newcastle, a location where he has secured two wins at this C&D. He recently placed over this trip. He is a likely prospect to repeat that success at 12/1.

The horse is 12 now but still capable enough at this level. Trainer fine; apprentice decent with that 5 lb claim. This horse was a CD winner LTO off 4 lb higher in this class. Should be thereabouts.

First Encounter has won 2 of the last 4 races, being once runner-up. It failed to make the frame last time, when trying a longer distance. Today, on its usual surface and distance, it is likely to at least make the frame.

This is a tricky race, as there are several previous course-and-distance winners who are very well handicapped but appear to be out of form. It's ripe for one of these to bounce back, and for me Little Ted could be the one from a career-low mark. A risky each-way.

Nap bet here for one dropping significantly in class. Having worked his way up to fitness, he is now dropping back into a 0-55, a grade he won in at the beginning of the year.

Probably needed this 6 week break to freshen up, he's had a very busy start to the year without success but now despite top weight is gradually looking more attractive mark of 55 (once rated 71) and also a course and distance winner

Abu Royal is a 6yo gelding trained by L J Morgan and has been In freefall since joining this yard dropping some 16lb to a career low handicap mark of 46 - was sent off as short as 7-1 on penultimate start over 14f off a 3lb higher mark but showed diddly squat - on last start over slightly short he went off unfanced and run very freely over 11f in first time visor 'Took keen hold, led, headed and weakened from over 2f out' they were different tactics and today's is dropped again in trip to 8f and if similar tactics are employed today he may just get home off current mark under Aiden Brookes and a yard who are 7/44 wins on the AW with recent runners showing a LSP of £83.00.

Second bite at the cherry in his handicap life. Although he has not shown much in the last few races, a three-pound weight reduction could be pivotal.