Denostin Horse Racing Tips

Follow

EW @

Kurakka is a 3-year-old colt trained by Alan King and ridden by Rossa Ryan. He comes here in good form, winning his last two starts and did it in good style from off the steady pace at Haydock, posting a career-high RPR of 91 under today's jockey, Rossa Ryan. Rossa Ryan has ridden 32 winners for Alan King, a trainer very much in form, winning with 3 of his last 6. He also won on him at Kempton over today's trip and has a 100% strike rate on turf and in handicap company. The last five winners of this race had been ridden by an experienced jockey who rode 600+ horses in the last 12 months. Of the five winners, 2 had run in the same class last time, 2 dropped down from a class 1, and 1 had risen from a class 4. None wore cheekpieces or blinkers or were sent off bigger than 25-1. Also, 4 out of 5 winners had run over the same trip or 2f further on their previous run. Kurakka fits this criteria and could make it three wins today.

WIN @

Mythical Guest is a 5-year-old gelding trained by George Margarson. He is a two-time winner and sits some 5lb above his last winning mark and is on 84 and has never won ontoday's good ground or distance so some question marks but he has been ultra- consistent, posting an RPR of 91 in 4 of his last 6 runs at some good tracks such as Newmarket and Ascot. He won't mind if the ground dries out as a two-time winner on good to firm ground. Owners John Guest Racing have picked up 57 wins in handicaps, alincluding Heritage handicaps with Mythical Guest and Ropey Guest, and have always teamed up well with George Margarson, winning some 65 races. While Mythical Guest may be in the grasp of the handicapper, he has shown he's capable in better class races, winning a class 3 at Newmarket, and placing in 3/9 class 3 or 2 handicaps and should be there or thereabout again in this company.

WIN @

Physique is a 5-year-old gelding trained by Pam Sly and ridden by Hollie Doyle. He runs off a mark of 85 and has been largely consistent for the new yard. He won off 1lb higher at Galway during a spell in Ireland for Micky Fenton, an ex-UK journalist jockey, and comes here in good form. His record is 7-2-3-4 in class 2-3 handicaps in all last four starts (three at headquarters at Newmarket) and was sent off no bigger than 6-1, so he has been well found in the market. He was sent off 9-2f and 4-1 in two of those races at Newmarket in class 2 contests, which suggests connections feel there is a race to be won still with Physique. Hollie Doyle, with 8/41 wins of late, rides for Pam Sly for the first time, which also looks like a significant jockey booking. As a footnote, it's also interesting that the previous trainer rode 28 winners for Pam Sly in the UK more than any other jockey, showing a LSP of £89.25, which adds further intrigue. I wouldn't be surprised if Physique ends up challenging for favouritism.

WIN @

In the last five runnings of this 6f (July) Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes, 4/5 winners were ridden by the same jockey as the last race. 4/5 had run previously in a class 1. 4/5 hadn't been sent off bigger than 8-1. 4/5 had run within the last 20-25 days, and all were ridden by experienced jockeys that had ridden 400+ horses in the last 12 months. Dandalla, Sandrine, Mawj, Persian Dreamer, and Mountain Breeze finished runner-up last year. So this leaves Venetian Sun, a 2yo filly with a 100% win strike rate (1-1), winning a Group 3 at Royal Ascot in the Albany Stakes, and is my short-priced banker of the day.

WIN @

Better And Better is a 2-year-old gelding trained by Adrian Paul Keatley. He finished 2-1 on his first two starts, winning on his penultimate start at Hamilton over today's trip and good going, posting a RPR of 89. He beat Try Storm Cat by a head, picking him up close to home, and they finished 3.5 lengths ahead of the third. He was thought capable enough of taking his chance at Royal Ascot and finished a respectable 12th out of 23 in the Windsor Castle, beaten by 6.5 lengths. He's in much calmer waters today, with conditions to suit, and in receipt of 8lb from top weight Front Line Fury, who has to shoulder a welterweight burden of 10 stone. Front Line Fury is likely to attempt to make all the running, which could play right into Better And Better's hands, who can nail him close to home.

EW @

Arabian Dusk is a 3-year-old filly trained by Simon & Ed Crisford. She has an in-and-out form, but her good days would bring her right into the reckoning. She is 1/8 wins on turf, having won a Group 2 at Newmarket, winning the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes, beating the useful Mountain Breeze over 6f on today's good ground under today's jockey, Harry Davies, posting an RPR of 99 as a 2-year-old. She seems to have trained on, having been beaten in a better race on her penultimate start, beaten a short head by Symbol Of Honour (she is a progressive filly winning four of her last five) in a Group 2 at Haydock, again under Harry Davies, posting a career-high RPR of 112 again over 6f on good ground, with today's rival First Instinct only 3/4 lengths behind. So conditions are perfect. Put in an RFC with First Instinct as that Group 2 form in the Betfred Sandy Lane Stakes looks solid.

WIN @

In the last 5 runners in this race 1m6f (July) bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap), all five winners had run no more than 15 starts in their entire career; no more than 5 starts in the last 12 months. Not a single apprentice wins. All winners were aged 4-5-6-7 and had run in the last 15-31 days, and all were running in a class 2 or rising in class by 1-2 levels from their previous start. Endless Victory looks primed to run a big race under William Buick. He's a two-time winner in this grade and unexposed over 1m 6f. Made first attempt at Royal Ascot on last start, beaten 5l behind the useful French Master, posting a career-high RPR of 108. Dwelt start, held up in rear, headway from 2f out, nearest finish. That was after a 130-day break and should strip a lot fitter today - Buick will also still be buzzing and brimming with confidence having achieved career landmark of 2000 winners in is extremely successful career to date.

WIN @

Roman Centurion is a 3-year-old gelding trained by John Ryan and ridden by Callum Shepherd (2/11 wins for Ryan). He is a winner over today's trip on good to firm ground, so today's good ground should suit. In the last four runnings of this race, all winners Isla Kai; Al Marmara; Good Gracious and Zain Blue had run over a mile on their last start. All four winners were priced between 3-1 and 25-1. No winner wore a hood. None of the four winners were ridden by an apprentice. With this being a class 3, none of the last four winners had run in a class 5 on their last start. This leaves Roman Centurion at a very appealing 11-1, who comes here having posted a career-high RPR of 87 at Newbury last time out without look that much ahead of his current mark. Regalian, who finished 1/2 length ahead, has since gone down by a nose at Musselburgh. Owners BB Thoroughbreds have had 10/74 winners with John Ryan, their trainer of choice, showing a LSP of £22.92.

EW @

Chilli Queen is a 3-year-old filly trained by Emma Lavelle. She comes here on the back of two wins on the AW. She posted a career-high RPR of 81 on her last start, readily beating Vilaine Verlaine by 1.75 lengths, who had risen from 60 to 74 having won her last two races on the AW. Chilli Queen has a 100% strike rate over today's trip going 1-1 and makes her turf debut. She is a full sister to a horse called Hariboux, who went 4/9 wins on turf, with 2/4 wins for Hugo Palmer on turf (also won on AW) and went 1-1-2 in handicaps, winning a class three and getting beaten a head in a class 2 before being shipped abroad to win two more on turf, including a Listed race, and was rated 97. Chilli Queen could still be progressing and is fairly treated off 8st 3lb and a mark of 79. The last two winners of this race, Yafhd and Sunset Point, hadn't run more than six times and had previous winning form on the AW and run over today's 1m 4f on their last start. Chilli Queen fits all that criteria and appeals at 18-1.