3:00 Haydock Tips

The 5yo mare is clear on the ratings for this Listed contest and wouldn't need to be at her best to land this contest. Just one run this year, a decent run in a strong Group 2 contest during May. She's had a nice break since. She did win three Group 1 races in a row last Aug-Oct, one in France, one in Ireland and the last one in the UK.

With only five runs to her name, ALOBAYYAH is one of the least exposed in this field. She makes her third start as a four-year-old today, having failed to win in two starts last season. She was a winner on debut as a two-year-old and recorded a second victory last time out, winning the Kensington Palace Stakes (8f, Good to Firm) at Royal Ascot. She didn't get the ideal run that day but showed an impressive turn of foot inside the final furlong to catch the leader late on. She steps out of handicap company today, and with further improvement forthcoming, she looks like a big danger. The trainer has a good record at this track, recording 8 winners from 27 runners (strike rate: 29.63%) over the past 12 months, yielding a level-stakes profit of +1.13, and has very strong claims with this representative.

I'm happy to take on Fallen Angel who has arguably been below par on both previous visits to Ascot. She may be good enough to be 10lbs below her best but on quick ground and a poor reappearance 86 days ago I'll look elsewhere. Calendar Girl comes here fresh after niggles made her miss the 1000 Guineas. The fact connections thought she was a Guineas horse speaks volumes and her 2yo form is stacking up well. Have to take fitness on trust but I think connections will want to see what they have to work with and this looks a very winnable Listed race if the fav doesn't perform as the 2nd fav is only rated 96.

Some classy individuals in this, but one who can outrun her odds is Silenciosa. She was still green when finishing second to the unbeaten Secret of life and is open to further improvement for her in form team and could sneak a place.

Mostar Dreams has improved markedly in her last couple of races, inspiring hope that she can pick up some black type here. The favourite is a very short price and may have bigger targets later in the season. A speculative each-way selection on Mostar Dreams is a sporting play at huge odds.