NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs 2023 Betting Update: David Pastrnak +450 To Win The Conn Smythe

With each of the NHL Playoffs' first-round series being four or five games through, some teams have tight strangleholds on their matchups while others are still neck and neck. With this, those who are holding comfortable leads and look likely to be advancing to the next round have seen their Stanley Cup odds drop exceedingly low while the teams on the other sides of these lopsided series have seen their odds balloon. 

2023 Stanley Cup Champion

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With the first-round matchups for the NHL Playoffs set and underway, let’s take a quick look at each series. 

In the Eastern Conference, the league-best Boston Bruins hold a 1-0 series advantage over last year's President’s Trophy-winning Florida Panthers. The top seed from the Metropolitan, the Hurricanes, also took care of business in Game One against the New York Islanders. The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning are set to face off in a rematch of last year’s seven-game first-round series which saw the Lightning move on. Toronto once again will look to rid themselves of their first-round demons and win a playoff series for the first time in nearly 20 years. Lastly, the New York

As expected and without too much need for a big explanation, the Boston Bruins hold the best odds to win it all currently at +270. The Presidents' Trophy winners and winningest regular season team of all time are leading 3-1 against the eighth-seed Florida Panthers and look to wrap up the series in Boston tonight. 

Coming in behind them with odds at +450 are the Toronto Maple Leafs. With a 3-1 series lead over Tampa Bay the Leafs will have three opportunities to finally exercise their playoff demons and progress past the first round. However, when it comes to the Maple Leafs and playoff hockey, nothing is a sure thing and as we have seen over the past number of seasons they have no problems blowing series leads. With that being said, the Lightning’s odds have understandably skyrocketed up to +8000 which honestly could be worth a little sprinkle seeing as they have made the Cup Final the past three seasons and won it all twice. 

The other teams I want to highlight are the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche. The Golden Knights are sitting at +700 as they hold a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Jets and with the West seemingly anyone’s for the taking, the likelihood of them making it to round two makes them essentially as good a bet as any. The defending champion Avalanche are in a different boat as they find themselves tied two to two in a dogfight with the Seattle Kraken. Their odds have popped up a little to +800 as most expected them to dispose of the Kraken relatively easily, which has not been the case. 

Series Winner Odds

Moving on, let’s think smaller than the Stanley Cup and just look at odds for different teams to win their first-round matchups. Understandably, some of these numbers will be extremely lopsided with the few 3-1 series leads that have developed, however, there are also lots of matchups that seem primed to go the distance and the odds reflect that. 

As mentioned earlier, the Bruins, Golden Knights, and Leafs are all comfortably up 3-1. Of those three teams, the Bruins have by far the best odds to win the series sitting at -5000. The Golden Knights come in after them at -1700 and the Leafs, likely because they are playing Tampa Bay and have a rough history of closing out series have the worst odds of the three but are still massive favorites at -1600. Tampa Bay also has the best odds of coming back and winning the series out of the three teams that are down 3-1 with +950 odds.

The biggest coin flip of a series according to the bookmakers is the Rangers vs. Devils. After losing the first two games at home, the Devils bounced back in Madison Square Garden winning both games and reclaiming home ice “advantage” in what is now a best-of-three series. The margin between these two teams is razor thin as the Devils are favorites at -115 while the Rangers are just a tick behind them at -105. The winner of tomorrow's game five matchup is sure to gain a significant odds boost likely into the -300 range. 

Despite being a 2-2 tied series, the Avalanche are still substantial favorites to advance at -230 against Seattle. The Kraken are at +190 and may be worth the risk as they seem to have that “it” factor and are hungry to prove themselves. Along with this, Colorado’s superstar defenseman Cale Makar is suspended for tonight’s pivotal game five, leaving the door open for the Kraken. 

The Oilers, Hurricanes, and Stars are all substantial favorites around the -400 to -500 range as they lead their respective series 3-2. 

Conn Smythe Odds

The Conn Smythe Trophy is an extremely tough one for oddsmakers to make lines on and for the public to predict this early in the playoffs as no one knows who will win the Stanley Cup and history shows that nearly every year the trophy goes to the best player from the Stanley Cup Champions. However, that doesn’t mean that we can’t take a way-too-early glimpse at the odds for the Conn Smythe Trophy. 

Unsurprisingly, two Boston Bruins lead the way with the top odds for the Conn Smythe. Superstar winger and 60-goal scorer David Pastrnak currently holds the best odds at +450 and right behind him is their goaltender Linus Ullmark at +650. Pastrnak has just two goals in four games this postseason but if the Bruins hope to complete their historic season with a Cup, he will need to perform to his highest of capabilities which is likely the reasoning behind his odds. Ullmark has been rock steady for the Bruins against the Panthers just as he was in the regular season. Aside from a poor game two in which he allowed five goals he has given up five total in the other three games.

Connor McDavid and Nathan Mackinnon are the next two on the list both tied at +1000. Similar to Pastrnak, if they hope to lead their teams to the Stanley Cup, they will have to play top tier hockey which would then give them a solid chance at the Conn Smythe. Each player however has other quality contenders on their own teams as last year’s winner Cale Makar is sitting at +1500 and McDavid’s running mate Leon Draisaitl is at +2000 and has had an unbelievable start to the playoffs with 10 points in five games. 

Teammates Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews are both sitting at +1200 and each will have to be playing at their best if Toronto wants to break their 55-year Stanley Cup drought. In series one, Marner likely has the edge due to his point production with 10 points to Matthews’ seven, yet as the odds illustrate, the two are still neck and neck. 

Riding With the Road Team?

NHL teams grind all season to not only make the playoffs but also to have as high of a seed as possible so as to gain home ice advantage in as many rounds as they can. Well, this year, this “advantage” hasn’t been that at all. So far in the first round, visiting teams are an impressive 21-14. This includes the Rangers and Devils trading away sweeps to start their series, and each of the Bruins, Golden Knights, and Maple Leafs having taken both games as the visiting side. Along with this, not one series has had a team that has won each of the games that they have played on their home ice. 

Coming up over the next few days there are some pretty important games in which I think this road team trend can continue. The Maple Leafs are looking to close out Tampa in Toronto tomorrow and are currently -155 favorites to do so. I like Tampa in this one at +135 as I think the Bolts have still got a whole lot of fight left in them and the nerves could creep up on the Leafs with the amount of pressure they have on them especially when playing at ScotiaBank Arena. 

Along with that game, The Devils are returning home after taking both games on the road against the Rangers. The Rangers handled New Jersey with ease in the first two games of the series at the Prudential Center before stumbling in MSG. I expect more of the same from the talented Rangers who I like to win the game as +105 underdogs. 

If you’re really leaning into this whole road team winning trend, the Panthers, Kraken, and Jets are all substantial road dogs in their coming games and could offer some value with their odds currently between +150 and +200.