Major League Baseball Cy Young 2023 Odds: Shane McClanahan and Zac Gallen Lead The Way

Updated: 74 Sport

Who is the top ace in baseball?

Major League Baseball Cy Young 2023 Odds: Shane McClanahan and Zac Gallen Lead The Way
Michael Calabrese US Content Manager

Experienced sports journalist, College sports expert and broadcaster, hailing from Pennsylvania

  • Shane McClanahan and Framber Valdez are the overwhelming AL favorites.
  • Zac Gallen, Clayton Kershaw, and Zack Wheeler are all in the mix atop the NL futures board.
  • The Cy Young is awarded in November following the World Series.

The Cy Young is an award reserved, for the most part, for the top ace in each respective league. The NL hasn't awarded a Cy Young to a closer since Éric Gagné in 2003. Gagné recorded 55 saves with an ERA of just 1.20. His 55 saves remain an NL record (tied with John Smoltz, '02). The AL reliever drought is even longer, with the last winner out of the bullpen coming in 1992 when Dennis Eckersley took home the hardware (51 saves, 1.91 ERA). This season, four relievers are in the hunt, two in each league. The AL East has produced two great closers in the Orioles' Felix Bautista (20 saves) and the Blue Jays' Jordan Romano (22 saves). Both relievers can still be found in the market at +25000. As for the NL, the Reds' Alexis Diaz and the Giants' Camilo Doval each have 20 saves apiece. The pair can also be found at +25000. So with relievers being written off, who are the starters that are viewed as favorites?

AL Cy Young Odds

Team Odds Probability
Shane McClanahan
+240 29.41%
Framber Valdez
+340 22.73%
Gerrit Cole +750 11.76%
Kevin Gausman
+750
11.76%
Luis Castillo
+1300
7.14%
Shohei Ohtani +1400
6.67%
Nathan Eovaldi
+2000 4.76%
Joe Ryan +2700 3.57%
Sonny Gray +4000 2.44%
George Kirby +6000
1.64%
Cristian Javier
+7500
1.32%

Shane McClanahan has been dealing all season long. The starter is 11-1 with a microscopic ERA of 2.12. ESPN's Cy Young Predictor gives him a 19-point lead over the next challenger. Historically the winner generally pulls away by 15 to 30 points in ESPN's metric. Framber Valdez, the second favorite on the board in the AL, has been a strikeout machine (104 Ks). That's the fifth-highest strikeout total in the AL. The 29-year-old is on pace for the best season of his career. 

NL Cy Young Odds

Team Odds Probability
Zac Gallen
+200 33.33%
Clayton Kershaw
+500 16.67%
Zack Wheeler
+750 11.76%
Spencer Strider +1000 9.09%
Logan Webb +1000
9.09%
Spencer Steer
+1000
9.09%
Marcus Stroman +1200 7.69%
Mitch Keller +1600 5.88%
Corbin Burnes
+5000 1.96%
Merrill Kelly +6000
1.64%
Justin Steele +6000 1.64%
Blake Snell +6000 1.64%
Alex Cobb +10000 0.99%
Max Scherzer
+10000
0.99%

Unlike the American League, the NL has a handful of viable candidates at the top of the board. Case in point, Zac Gallen (+200) and Merrill Kelly (+6000) are spread out considerably in the eyes of sportsbooks, but their win columns and ERAs are nearly identical. Gallen is 9-2 with a 2.84 ERA and Kelly is 9-3 with a 2.90 ERA. As for the other favorites, Clayton Kershaw has found the fountain of youth and is mowing down batters (103 Ks). After a slow start, Zach Wheeler is coming on strong. He's won his last two starts and has given up just one run in his last 19.1 innings of work. 

 

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