A Profitable NBA System Backing a Winning Streak

Updated: 1165 Basketball

Searching for profitable betting strategies on the NBA has led us to find this system where wagering on the hosts who have won their last three games has proved profitable in the past.

A Profitable NBA System Backing a Winning Streak
Andy Powell Content Editor

Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.

NBA Betting Strategies & Systems

There are many angles that you can approach the NBA to find profitable betting strategies and systems and different markets too.

The main NBA sportsbooks have the three major markets, Moneyline, Points Spread and Total Points, we will be using Moneyline in this blog which is the winner of the game.

In an ideal world, you would use the information in this blog and then compare it to what the expert NBA handicappers are predicting to see if they are in agreement.

NBA - Winning Streaks

We are looking at hosting teams who are on a winning streak, those who have just started a winning streak by winning their last game return a profit of $166.50 if wagering $10 on them, and those on the back-to-back wins also show a profit ($13.00) if wagering $10 on each of them.

However, those only had win rates of 58% & 59%, and once you get to a host who has won their last three games not only do those have a 68% win rate with a profit of $205.80 to $10 wagers over the last five seasons.

Four of the last five years have seen those return a profit with only the 2022-23 season producing a small loss.

Winning Streaks - Digging Deeper

Whilst a 68% win rate is a very good return already, it is always worth digging deeper to see if there are areas that maybe do not do so well, remember 32% have been losers so we may be able to reduce that number.

There is not too much of a difference depending on whether the team is coming off a home win (69% & +$145.50) or a win on the road (66% +$60.30).

Looking at the days which is sometimes difficult to understand but Tuesdays and Sundays both show losses, just a 54% win rate and a loss of -$44.50 on Tuesdays and a 63% win rate and a loss of -$51.80 on Sundays.

NBA - Putting The System Together

If we plug those circumstances mentioned into the base of the system, then we are looking at the following criteria:

  • Back host team when won three consecutive games

  • Ignore games on Tuesday & Sunday

Following those criteria bumps the original win rate over the past five seasons from an opening 68% up to a 71% win rate which cuts the losers down to 29%.

The original profit from a $10 stake was $205.80, however, with the criteria added, that profit improved to $302.10 to $10 stakes.

Over the last five seasons, there would have been a total of 276 picks, meaning a total stake of $2,760 for a return of $3,062.10 which is a good 10.95% R.O.I.

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