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- Boris Johnson's Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency may face a by-election before the next election
- A possible suspension for Johnson could trigger the by-election in his constituency
- Johnson remains 7/1 second favourite to be next Prime Minister after Rishi Sunak
Boris Johnson's Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency may face a by-election before the next election
Boris Johnson's run as an MP could be over by the end of the Summer with a possible by-election on the cards in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
Johnson faces an appearance before the Commons privileges committee next week with 'Partygate' probe looking into whether he lied to MP's last year.
If found guilty he may get a four-week suspension which could trigger a by-election in his constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
The latest odds from UK betting sites say that there's a 66% chance that a by-election takes place in Johnson's constituency before the next General Election.
| Will Uxbridge and South Ruislip have a by-election before next General Election? | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1/2 | 66.7% |
| No | 6/4 | 40.0% |
There's a 40% chance that no by-election will be called in Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Boris Johnson will be hoping and praying that that is the case.
We'll likely see a Summer by-election if one was to happen and it'll be very interesting to see opinion polls ahead of it taking place.
A possible suspension for Johnson could trigger the by-election in his constituency
The possible four-week suspension for Johnson means that a 'recall petition' for a by-election can be called in and it's looking increasingly likely to happen.
The committee report from Johnson's case could mean that a petition for a by-election would be automatically opened up in the next couple of months.
Around 7,000 sign-ups would be needed to trigger the by-election and with that only being around 10% of the electorate it looks like it would go through.
Johnson remains 7/1 second favourite to be next Prime Minister after Rishi Sunak
Despite the potential for Boris to not even be an MP by the time of the next General Election he is still the second favourite in the next Prime Minister betting market.
The current Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is odds-on at 4/9 to take over from Rishi Sunak next but Boris is 7/1 behind him in the betting.
The current prediction from Electoral Calculus says that Labour's current majority would be 318 seats with a 97% chance of a Labour Majority.
