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- Conservative co-chair Oliver Dowden resigned early on Friday morning following two by-election losses for the party to Labour and the Liberal Democrats
- Bookies give 3/1 odds that there's another resignation in the cabinet before July 1st
- Odds also given on Rishi Sunak to be replaced as Chancellor in 2022 with 8/11 odds he stays on
Conservative co-chair Oliver Dowden resigned early on Friday morning
Conservative co-chairman Oliver Dowden resigned at 5:35am on Friday morning after the Tories' two defeats in Thursday's by-elections.
Losing in both the Tiverton and Honiton by-election and in Wakefield, Dowden said in his resignation letter that "someone needs to take responsibility."
Bookies give 3/1 odds that there will be another cabinet minister resignation before 1st July with all eyes on what happens next.
| Will there be another cabinet minister resigning before July 1st? | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| No | 1/3 | 75.0% |
| Yes | 3/1 | 25.0% |
No resignations before the 1st of July is a heavy favourite at 1/3 with the majority of the cabinet still sticking by Boris Johnson.
The Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that "we will keep going, addressing the concerns of people until we get through this patch."
Boris Johnson under increasing pressure as Prime Minister
More and more pressure is heaping on Boris Johnson with two major seats lost in the last 24 hours.
The betting odds for Boris Johnson's exit date are constantly moving with the current favourite that he is replaced this year at 6/4.
Johnson is currently in Rwanda where he is attending a Commonwealth head of government meeting so hasn't been here for the important by-elections.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has said the the result in Wakefield "tells you that the next government is going to be a Labour government," with confidence growing for the party.
Odds also given on Rishi Sunak to be replaced as Chancellor in 2022 with 8/11 odds he stays on
Rishi Sunak was one of several Tory MP's who have spoken up about Oliver Dowden's resignation this morning.
In a post on his Twitter Sunak said, "I'm sad that my colleague and friend Oliver Dowden took the decision to resign this morning."
Bookmaker Smarkets make it 8/11 that Sunak at least sees out the year as Chancellor of the Exchequer with a 57.9% chance of that happening.
On the other hand though, Sunak leaving at some point this year is as short as 6/5 so the market is tight.
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