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- Starmer had been challenging Rishi Sunak in the market but has dropped away
- Odds of 5/2 for Starmer have dropped off to 8/1
- Liz Truss popular with punters as her odds go from 20/1 into just over 4/1 with bookies
- Andy Burnham is still the strongest candidate for the next Labour leader.
As the new year approaches we take a look at what the bookmakers are predicting in 2022 looking at prices on various markets for the Labour party and expectations for the year ahead.
Political betting fans have been placing their bets and the markets are forming on the basis of the wagers placed, which doesn't look good for Sir Kier Starmer as his odds of becoming the Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson have dramatically dropped to 8/1 with betting sites.
This is probably more to do with the security of Boris's job than that of the position of power the party hold, which really leaves Kier out of the running anyway
Next Prime Minister Betting Odds
|
|
Odds | % Probabilty |
|---|---|---|
| Rishi Sunak | 3.25 | 30.77% |
| Liz Truss | 5.40 | 18.52% |
| Keir Starmer | 9.20 | 10.42% |
| Jeremy Hunt | 11.50 | 8.70% |
| Michael Gove | 13.50 | 7.41% |
| Sajid Javid | 23.0 | 4.35% |
| Priti Patel | 30 | 3.33% |
| Penny Mordaunt | 50 | 2% |
Liz Truss - 20/1 into 4/1
In terms of movement in the betting, whilst Kier Starmer is a big drifter in the market, if we are using gambling parlance, and looking for the 'steamer' as it were, then Liz Truss fills that position.
As recently as the beginning of August, Liz Truss was a relatively unconsidered 20/1 chance to become the next prime minister after Boris, Johson,
Today that price stands at just over 4/1 meaning here chance in probability terms has increased from 4% to over 18% in just a couple of months.
Next Labour Leader
If it is not Kier Starmer then Andy Burnham looks the most likely candidate to succeed Starmer and perhaps one day be Prime Minister as the next Labour Leader
Next Labour Leader Betting Odds
|
|
Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 7/2 | 22.22% |
| Rachel Reeves | 9/1 | 10% |
| Yvette Cooper | 13/1 | 7.14% |
| Lisa Nandy | 11/1 | 8.33% |
