I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- Labour Leader Starmer is fancied by bookies to be able to retain his position and not be found guilty in curry-gate
- No clear betting favourite as to when he will leave the office with punters betting on all possible outcomes
- Angela Rayner odds of becoming the next Labour leader have slipped from 4-/1 to 10/1 with bookmakers
- Betting sites reporting big support for Wes Streeting to replace Stamer eventually
Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party has taken a big gamble and stated he will stand down if fined by Durham police for Breaking Covid Rules by having a Beer and a Curry during lockdown, claiming the event took place between work which continued until 01:00am
Betting sites have a range of odds for which date Keir Starmer will leave his post as Leader of the Labour Party, but also there are odds available on whether he will be fined by police for breaking rules of not.
One market is of course intrinsically linked to the other in the event of any conviction being tabled and the upholding of the promise to resign if such an event unfolds
Odds one Keir Starmer being Fined by Police for breaking COVID lockdown rules.
| Fined | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.60 | 21.74% |
| No | 1.11 | 90.09% |
As we can see from the odds above, the bookmakers are betting a 90% probability that no fine and conviction will be issued which backs up Starmers stance on standing down should it happen, with betting sites going just over 20% probability on that outcome.
This leads us to the odds available on When Sir Keir may leave his current position with an interesting market.
When will Keir Starmer Cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?
As we can see there is little to choose between the three possibilities of before 2024, during 2024, or after 2024 with probability pretty evenly shared between the three possible outcomes, with slight favour for 2023 or earlier, possibly driven by current events.
| Date | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 or Earlier | 2.62 | 38.17% |
| 2024 | 2.72 | 36.76% |
| 2025 or Later | 2.74 | 36.50% |
Angela Rayner has also come out and stated she would stand in the event of getting a fine also, the former 2nd favourite in the Next Labour Leader Betting Odds is also involved in the 'work meeting' - She has previously been as short as 4/1 second favourite behind Andy Burnham to be the next Labour LEader but has dropped to 10/1 this year as a host of candidates including Wes Streeting have come to the fore.
