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- Taiwan Travelogue by Yáng Shuāng-zǐ is the 5/2 favourite to win the International Booker Prize 2026, with the winner announced on Tuesday May 19 at a ceremony at Tate Modern in London
- The Nights Are Quiet in Tehran by Shida Bazyar is second in the market at 3/1, with The Director by Daniel Kehlmann at 4/1 and She Who Remains by Rene Karabash at 5/1
- Taiwan Travelogue was selected from 128 submissions and is the first Taiwanese work ever to reach the International Booker Prize shortlist
One of Literature's Greatest Prizes And a Market With a Clear Frontrunner
The International Booker Prize 2026 reaches its conclusion on Tuesday evening at Tate Modern in London, and for the first time in the prize's history, a Taiwanese work stands at the head of the winner market.
Betting sites have priced up the shortlist in full, and Yáng Shuāng-zǐ's Taiwan Travelogue, translated into English by Lin King, leads the field at 5/2 ahead of one of the most internationally diverse and critically celebrated shortlists the prize has produced.
The winner and their translator will share a £50,000 prize, with the ceremony at Tate Modern supported by Bukhman Philanthropies.
2026's shortlist was selected from 128 submissions, a record number, and represents writers and translators from eight countries: Taiwan, the UK, the US, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, France and Germany.
Each shortlisted author-translator pair has received £5,000, and the six books have generated some of the most engaged literary debate of the year.
Taiwan Travelogue: The Novel That Made History Before It Even Won
Yáng Shuāng-zǐ's Taiwan Travelogue is, in many respects, already a prizewinner.
Disguised as a translation of a rediscovered text by a Japanese writer, the novel won Taiwan's highest literary honour, the Golden Tripod Award, on its original Mandarin-language publication in 2020.
Its English translator Lin King previously won the US National Book Award for Translated Literature for her work on the novel, a first for Taiwanese literature in its own right.
The shortlisting for the International Booker Prize represented yet another first: the first time a Taiwanese author has reached the final stage of the prestigious award.
What the expert says...
International Booker Prize 2026 Winner Odds
| Book | Author | Translated From | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan Travelogue | Yáng Shuāng-zǐ | Mandarin Chinese | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| The Nights Are Quiet in Tehran | Shida Bazyar | German | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| The Director | Daniel Kehlmann | German | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| She Who Remains | Rene Karabash | Bulgarian | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| On Earth As It Is Beneath | Ana Paula Maia | Portuguese | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| The Witch | Marie NDiaye | French | 18/1 | 5.3% |
Tehran, Berlin and the Formidable Challengers
The Nights Are Quiet in Tehran by Shida Bazyar is the most credible challenger to Taiwan Travelogue at 3/1.
Bazyar, a German-Iranian author writing in German, has been one of the most celebrated voices in contemporary European literature, and the subject matter of her novel carries an urgency that the current geopolitical climate makes impossible to ignore.
A novel set in Tehran, navigating themes of identity, resistance and survival, resonates with a depth and immediacy that the International Booker Prize judges have historically found compelling.
At 25% implied probability, the market rates her chances highly, and not without reason.
Daniel Kehlmann's The Director sits at 4/1 and the German novelist brings perhaps the most established international profile of anyone on the shortlist.
Best known for his global bestseller Measuring the World, Kehlmann has long been one of Europe's most widely translated and critically admired novelists, and a second International Booker shortlisting underlines his status as one of the defining literary voices of his generation
Where To Bet on the International Booker Prize 2026
With the winner announced on Tuesday May 19 at Tate Modern, there is very little time left to get your selections on before the market closes.
A wide range of bookmakers offer literary prize markets, with new customers often finding free bets available to get started.
Always compare prices before placing, and head to our guide to the best entertainment betting sites for a full comparison of where to find the best International Booker Prize odds before Tuesday's ceremony.
