I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- Kwasi Kwarteng is now 9/4 to be replaced as chancellor with bookies
- Bookies also make Kwarteng the favourite to be the first cabinet member to leave
- A UK recession still remains odds on at 4/9
Kwasi Kwarteng is now 9/4 to be replaced as chancellor with bookies
Kwasi Kwarteng has been backed in to 9/4 from 4/1 with bookies to be replaced as Chancellor after a disastrous week.
Kwarteng's mini-budget last week led to a slump in the value of the pound with a £65b intervention from the Bank of England.
Smarkets now give a 30% chance that Kwarteng is replaced as Chancellor before the end of the year with many asking him to quit.
| Will Kwasi Kwarteng leave his role before the end of 2022? | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9/4 | 30.08% |
| No | 3/10 | 76.9% |
According to the betting odds, Kwarteng's position still looks fairly safe until the end of the year at least.
With odds of 3/10, bookies give a massive 76% chance that Kwarteng stays in his position as Chancellor going into 2023.
Bookies also make Kwarteng the favourite to be the first cabinet member to leave
Bookies give a variety of different markets around Kwasi Kwarteng's position and that includes making him favourite to be the first cabinet member to leave.
At odds of 11/4, Kwarteng's odds of leaving first in this current cabinet have tumbled down from 12/1 in the space of a week.
A recent voter poll by YouGov has put Labour in a massive 33-point lead ahead of the Conservatives.
Next Prime Minister Odds | Betting History and Trends
Next Cabinet Minister To Leave The Government Betting Odds
A UK recession still remains odds on at 4/9
The chances of a recession in the UK looks more and more likely according to odds from bookmakers.
It's now 4/9 that the UK goes into recession in 2022, shortening from 4/5 back in August.
Bookies make it 8/11 that it doesn't happen before the end of the year though with a 58% chance of that being the case.
