Jake is a Football and Entertainment betting expert, with a Man City season ticket and a deep knowledge of reality TV betting angles
- Raphinha is now the 1/1 favourite to win the 2025 Ballon d'Or after Barcelona’s UCL progress
- Kylian Mbappé drifts to 14/1 as Real Madrid exit prompts market reaction
- Lamine Yamal and Mo Salah remain joint second-favourites at 5/1
Raphinha now evens to win the 2025 Ballon d'Or
Barcelona’s Raphinha is now 1/1 favourite with UK betting sites to win the 2025 Ballon d’Or after his side sailed through in the Champions League, with bookmakers reacting swiftly to recent knockout action.
The Brazilian winger has leapfrogged competition following a string of stellar performances that helped Barcelona progress further in Europe’s elite competition.
That momentum has seen punters pile in, prompting Bet365 to slash his price from 2/1 to even money in the past month.
Betting odds for the award now gives an implied probability of 50% that Raphinha will win the Ballon d'Or later this year.
| 2025 Ballon d'Or Winner | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Raphinha | 1/1 | 50.0% |
| Lamine Yamal | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Mohamed Salah | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Ousmane Dembele | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Robert Lewandowski | 7/1 | 12.5% |
What the expert says...
Yamal, Salah and Dembele joint second favourites
The biggest mover besides Raphinha is Lamine Yamal with the winger sharing second-favourite status at 5/1, alongside Mo Salah and Ousmane Dembele.
Salah’s odds remain static after Liverpool’s own Champions League exit but his goalscoring numbers this season keep him firmly in the conversation.
Another notable mention is Robert Lewandowski, currently 7/1, who may require both individual and club success to close the gap on his teammate.
It’s worth noting that voting trends for the Ballon d’Or heavily favour Champions League finalists and international performers, but a big Club World Cup showing this summer could change things.
