Is Win To Nil An Underrated Market?

A lot of the football markets that I am interested in these days revolve around low scores or one team not scoring. Win to nil is one of my favourite football bets and one that always seems to surprise me with how much value it offers. Just look at the football betting odds for the win to nil on EPL matches.
Is Win To Nil An Underrated Market?
James Banting
James Banting Tipster Competition Assistant

James has worked for the jockey club and has 20 years sports betting experience he utilises his skills in our tipster competitions and writes sports betting content.

What Is Win To Nil Football Betting?

A lot of the football markets that I am interested in these days revolve around low scores or one team not scoring.

One of my favourite types of football bets, and one that always seems to surprise me with how much value it offers, is the win to nil market. 

Types of Football Bet
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Types of Football Bet

In the win to nil betting markets, you predict that one team will win the game without the other team scoring. 

All the best betting sites offer win to nil markets on the major football leagues.

Below are the number and percentage in the EPL of WIN TO NIL matches over the last four seasons. 

EPL SeasonWTN MatchesTotal Matches%
2023/2413438035.30%
2022/2316138042.30%
2021/2216838044.21%
2020/2116438043.16%
2024/25 Season
In the opening 4 weeks (40 games) of the 2024/25 EPL season 15 of 40 games were won to nil (37.5%).

There are plenty of teams that I don't think are value to win their matches at the odds, but then when you look at the win to nil odds the price boost for keeping that clean sheet often looks a bit too generous to me. 

Win To Nil
You will get between 40% and 100% better odds by backing the home team to win to nil.

Below are the opening games of a previous EPL season, you can immediately see the pre-match generous win to nil odds in comparison to the standard home price.

Win To Nil Football Odds
Why not split your stake between a standard 1x2 bet and a win to nil bet at bigger odds?

I know it's obvious but betting on teams to win to nil is most profitable when a team that is likely to win and has a good defensive record is playing a team that has a poor offensive record. 

These stats are readily available so it doesn't take a lot of research to pick the best win to nil bets and as we've established above, the extra returns from backing win to nil look well worth the extra risk. 

Win To Nil - Best & Worst
Arsenal topped the 2023/24 records with 45% of their games being won to nil. On the flip side relegated Sheffield United only managed 1 win to nil.

WTN V Correct Score

The alternative to win to nil when you feel strongly that one team will stop the other from scoring is the correct score option. 

This involves predicting the exact final score of a match. 

As you can see by the example odds below, when you hit a correct score, the payout is decent, but we all know how hard it is to get those correct scores right. 

West Ham United v Chelsea

MatchWTNWTNCorrect ScoreCorrect ScoreCorrect ScoreCorrect ScoreCorrect ScoreCorrect Score
West Ham United vs ChelseaHomeAwayWest Ham 1-0West Ham 2-0West Ham 3-0Chelsea 0-1Chelsea 0-2Chelsea 0-3
Betting Odds7.54.75172341131523

Leicester City v Everton

MatchWTNWTNCorrect ScoreCorrect ScoreCorrect ScoreCorrect ScoreCorrect ScoreCorrect Score

To checkout all the upcoming fixtures and betting odds from matches around the world please visit the OLBG football tips pages. 

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