Is Win To Nil An Underrated Market?

A lot of the football markets that I am interested in these days revolve around low scores or one team not scoring. Win to nil is one of my favourite football bets and one that always seems to surprise me with how much value it offers. Just look at the football betting odds for the win to nil on EPL matches.

Is Win To Nil An Underrated Market?

What Is Win To Nil Football Betting?

A lot of the football markets that I am interested in these days revolve around low scores or one team not scoring.

One of my favourite types of football bets, and one that always seems to surprise me with how much value it offers, is the win to nil market. 

In the win to nil betting markets, you predict that one team will win the game without the other team scoring. 

You can place win-to-nil bets with most online bookmakers, you can also add win-to-nil tips in the OLBG tipping competition. 

Win To Nil Percentages

45 % of EPL matches in the 2020/21 season ended to nil.

There are plenty of teams that I don't think are value to win their matches at the odds, but then when you look at the win to nil odds the price boost for keeping that clean sheet often looks a bit too generous to me. 

Win To Nil

You will get between 40% and 100% better odds by backing the home team to win to nil.

These unusual and different types of bet feature in our dedicated Types Of Bet School Article

The text explains fully your options and types of bet on offer. 

Win To Nil Extra Blog

Why not check out the Euro 2020 Win To Nil Blog?

Euro 2020 Blogs

Below are the opening games of the 2021/22 EPL season, you can immediately see the pre-match generous win to nil odds in comparison to the standard home price. 

Match Home Win Odds Home Win To Nil Odds
Brentford v Arsenal 4.2 8.0
Man Ud v Leeds 1.5 3.15
Burnley v Brighton 3.3 5.2
Chelsea v Crystal Palace 1.25 1.93
Everton v Southampton 1.91 3.5
Leicester v Wolves 1.63 2.63
Watford v Aston Villa 3.6 6.0
Norwich v Liverpool 10.0 22.0
Newcastle v West Ham 3.3 6.25
Tottenham v Man City 5.5 11.0


Games To Nil Last Season

Of the 10 opening games of the 2020/21 season 8 ended to nil, with 6 being away wins to nil.

Win To Nil Football Odds

Why not split your stake between a standard 1x2 bet and a win to nil bet at bigger odds?

Win To Nil Team Performance 2020/21 EPL Season

Club Win To Nil Games Played 2020/21 Season Percentage
Manchester City 18 47%
Chelsea 12 32%
Aston Villa 11 29%
Tottenham Hostspur 11 29%
Everton 10 26%
Leicester City 10 26%
Liverpool 10 26%
Arsenal 9 24%
Leeds 9 24%
West Ham United 9 24%
Burnley 7 18%
Southampton 7 18%
Wolverhampton Wanderers 7 18%
Brighton & Hove Albion 6 16%
Manchester Utd 6 16%
Crystal Palace 5 13%
Newcastle United 5 13%
Sheffield United 5 13%
Fulham 4 11%
West Bromich Albion 3 8%

I know it's obvious but betting on teams to win to nil is most profitable when a team that is likely to win and has a good defensive record is playing a team that has a poor offensive record. 

These stats are readily available so it doesn't take a lot of research to pick the best win to nil bets and as we've established above, the extra returns from backing win to nil look well worth the extra risk. 

Win To Nil - Best & Worst

Manchester City in the 2020/21 season had a 47% Win To Nil record. On the flip side of this WBA only had an 8% WTN record.

Feedback

I'd like to know if everyone agrees that the compared prices in most cases are great value? 

Are there any similar markets (such as to win without a clean sheet) that can offer even better odds increases?

Have you placed win to nil bets with any success?

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