Ever feel like you’re guessing when betting on tennis, cricket or golf? I make sense of the stats and trends so you can bet confidently and enjoy watching your bets play out.
I enjoy a bet on the football but no longer do it for big money as
I feel I can find much better value from betting on horse racing.
When betting on football I normally look for a double or treble on
teams that are priced somewhere between 8/11 and 11/8 and I tend to
find the teams that match these odds in the lower leagues have much
better relative form than those in the Premiership.
This week's matches won't necessarily have the best examples but
here goes:
Premiership
Liverpool 4/11 at home to Reading
Reading have started the season in very poor form picking up just 3
points from 6 games yet Liverpool, the long odds on shots here,
have just 3 points more and have played an extra game. Goal
difference can be an often overlooked way of working out the
quality of a team yet they are similar also here with Liverpool on
-3 and Reading on -5. This is the classic example of odds based on
reputation not form.
League Two
Gillingham 8/11 at home to Burton
This is more of a top of the table clash rather than bottom of the
table clash like the above Premiership encounter but the difference
in actual form rather than perceived quality is similar, although
despite the bigger odds on Gillingham they actually seem to have
more in hand over Burton. Gillingham are 10 points above Burton and
have a goal difference more than three times as good.
Both teams SHOULD WIN but that doesn't mean they will win. However
I do think both teams should be around the same sort of price or at
the very least much closer in the betting. If you are betting for
‘value' then Gillingham certainly seem the better bet.
I realise that betting on football isn't 100% about how many times
each team has won so far this season and there is much more to
consider but I do believe that the bookies price matches up mostly
based on reputation and it shows that they don't seem to half as
much about the lower leagues than the Premiership.
A bit of study on the ‘unfashionable' leagues can provide a punter
with much more value than just looking at 10 games in the
Premiership which I think most ‘shop punters' probably do.
Certainly my non betting fanatic mates who like a bet tend to bet
only on the Premiership and I always here about their accas being
let down by Arsenal at home to Sunderland or similar fixtures where
they have probably backed a team with a big reputation at poor
value odds.
