James has worked for the jockey club and has 20 years sports betting experience he utilises his skills in our tipster competitions and writes sports betting content.
After the very favorable comments I got regarding my Bulgarian league analysis, I have decided to share my knowledge on another league, which is close to me and I have particular interest in both as a fan and from a betting perspective. Coincidentally, the Belgian league has just split into the different playoff groups and there is a one week break, which could be used by all punters to get to know the specifics of one of the most peculiar league formats in Europe.
THE LEAGUE FORMAT
What every punter must know before throwing any money at a particular team is the incentive behind this team performances and that is rule number one if one does not wish to give the bookies early Christmas presents due to lack of knowledge. The Belgian league is by far the trickiest to understand and most ridiculously structured among the top European leagues. Forget the two groups of seven in Bulgaria, here we have three playoff branches and on top of that one is divided into two sub-groups and the third one leads to yet another playoff, this time involving second division teams.THE REGULAR SEASON is a simple home and away format of 30 games with the idea of accumulating points, which shockingly enough only matter for the teams that after those 30 games will contest the championship and the relegation candidates. Following the regular season the league divides into three branches with different goals for all teams involved. In a way, I support that kind of format, because it allows even teams that were near the bottom to have something to play for come the second part, but the critics rightly point out that a team, which narrowly avoided relegation could actually end up playing in Europe…bummer, isn't it?
THE THREE BRANCHES
- The TOP SIX TEAMS battle for the title
- The NEXT EIGHT TEAMS battle for European qualification
- The BOTTOM TWO decide who gets relegated directly and who will play in another playoff with Second division teams
THE CHAMPIONSHIP GROUP is simplest of all as the top six teams will face each other for a second time in the same home and away format with points accumulation deciding the champion, the Champions league and one Europa league place. The difference from the Bulgarian league, which I looked at in the past is that points are actually HALVED here, which obviously makes it more interesting as big differences are split in half. In addition odd number of points are rounded in favor of the club, but for the purpose of league winner bets, please consider that at the end if a team did receive that half point and ends up on level with a team that did not, this particular team will be ranked lower than the one without a half point advantage in the beginning.
THE EUROPA LEAGUE PLAYOFFS is where it gets complicated as you will rarely see a team that finished third from the bottom with a clear shot at making the Europa league. Those ranked 7th to 14th are divided into two playoff groups of four and face each other on the home and away basis with any points from the regular season totally wiped out. The goal is to win the group you are in and subsequently advance to the next stage of the playoffs. The equivalent to this is group-stage format at the World and European cups with the only difference that the group winner is the only one to advance to the knock-out stages. The two winners meet up in another home and away session with the winner then…not really winning anything but going to the final stage, where a match with the fourth-ranked team from the Championship group determines the last Belgian quota for the Europa league.
THE RELEGATION battle includes the bottom two from the regular season facing each other a whopping five times and again accumulating points. The team with fewest points after this marathon is directly relegated while the winner is forced to join another playoff with three second division teams for the final league place for next season. The specific here is that the two bottom teams do not start from scratch but the second to last is given three point advantage, which means the bottom one would need to secure at least three wins from five in order to stay alive.
THE CURRENT SITUATION
The teams are split already and the groups are set. The points in the top group are divided and on first sight things indeed got much more intriguing as the 16 point difference between first and fifth is now merely 8 points. All teams have showed some good and not so good things over the course of the season and some ride a better form than others. How they enter this phase would pretty much determine who battles for a title, who for Europe and who is just out of depth in this company.
THE TITLE RACE
I shall start from bottom team Genk, who is now within a few points of the Champions league places. This is the same GENK team that fell victim to Anzhi in the Europa league and was on a huge losing streak of six in December and January that saw them drop from second to almost out of these playoffs. They also secured their sixth place in the very last round when a come from behind point and a Gent defeat at home was what they needed to reach the top group. Among the others, I must emphasize on CLUB BRUGGE, who made the best run after the break to finish second and are the in-form side entering this but also have the most balanced squad. The obvious favorites remain STANDARD LIEGE but they did not look all that convincing in the last few weeks, winning just one of their last four games. They will certainly feel the pressure now that the lead is down to two points and in a championship group, the opponents are much stronger and hungrier. The powerhouse ANDERLECHT must also enter calculations as they have proven to be very effective since the format was introduced and are one of those to monitor for a significant rise in form. LOKEREN and ZULTE-WAREGEM might not strike as the most obvious contenders, but the situation is congested and all it takes is a few good results to get you into the title frame. Zulte are of interest in particular due to their solid defense and resilience even in losing situations.
THE RACE TO EUROPE
While qualifying for the Europa league out of this part of the playoffs might look a long and difficult process, some of those teams might actually have something to settle with those in the top six and that is motivation enough to give it a serious go. As it could be seen from the groups, both have something of a top seed, namely GENT and KORTRIJK, who finished just outside the championship playoff and had a healthy point advantage over those behind them. Both have a lot to be sorry for as Gent missed out on the last day of the regular season after losing at home to Zulte while Kortrijk, who were deep in the top six in early December had such a slip up in form with just two wins out of their last 15 games, that ended up six points short. REMEMBER THAT OBSERVATION about Kortrijk as a team that could not show improvement following the winter break from a slump might not be a good selection to back here. I will not look into detail all these involved, but only briefly will point out my favorite Belgian team, KV OOSTENDE who were tipped up as certain relegation candidate with smallest budget and no quality signings. Yet, they managed to finish 9th, which is a huge achievement and at home are particularly dangerous, so one must always look out for some shocks from them. If I were you, I would allow at least one game to pass before drawing any conclusions as to who is favorite to win those groups, but Gent are the richest team with the biggest fan base and historical background, so backing them to go all the way and eventually take revenge on those in the top six, who narrowly edged them in a final Europa league showdown looks very mouth-watering scenario.
THE BOTTOM TWO
Not much to say about the bottom two apart from quick note that MONS enter in a better overall form but with obviously less depth and quality in the squad. Not to mention, the very last round of the regular season saw the two teams face each other and it was precisely Mons who came out on top. On the positive side for OH LEUVEN is that they have the three point advantage, have the home court advantage and have beaten no other than Anderlecht a week ago. Unlike last year when one of the teams was obviously down and out before it even started, here it could be a very interesting battle, which I won't be surprised is decided in the very last game.
SUMMARY AND ADVICE
I am sure some of you are totally confused as to who on Earth thought of such complicated system, but there is good reason behind everything. Imagine you are stuck in mid-table come Christmas and you can still play in Europe? One thing I must stress when betting in the second phase is not to take anything that happened in the regular season for granted. Teams that underachieved might actually come out strong as the three-week long winter break was late in the schedule of the first 30 rounds and transfers or other developments could propel these more fortunate to a stronger finish than expected. On the same note, do not follow form from the last few rounds either as some teams might have gone slower to prepare better for the playoff battles, unless of course they were battling hard for a playoff place.
All in all, one of the fascinating leagues to bet on and hopefully my knowledge as a former resident of Belgium will be helpful for those who want to make some profits late in the season.
