Premier League Statistics Trends and Results

Collating EPL Statistics

I have been collating and collecting football statistics especially EPL statistics for the last number of years. 

This has enabled me to take advantage of trends within the EPL and place value bets. 

I have run a range of studies including the ongoing Premier League Relegation Diary and having these stats available has helped me no end. 

I hope you will glean the same amount of footy knowledge.

If you have any questions for me (Davidg3907) please post in the comments section below or on the OLBG forum. 

Further reading on football betting is on offer via the excellent how-to assess football form article at the betting school. 

Starting Statistics

This table shows data by frequency rather than profit/loss. 

Basic statistics and their frequency.

There are 380 games per season.  

You can see below the AVERAGES for each season between specific dates, you can also see that results remain fairly static across all the seasons. 

For example in the 2019/20 season, BTTS occurred in 194 games which was exactly what we expected looking back at past data. 

There are only 3 changes of any significance. 

The AWAY WIN TO NIL figure has been boosted by 63 last season and 66 the previous season.

To some extent, this may be explained by the dominance of Liverpool and Manchester City over that period.

In the first 8 seasons, there were only two instances of more than 114 Away favourites. 

In the last five seasons, 116 is the lowest with the most recent figures being 135 and 137. 

The exact reasons may be unclear but it could go some way towards explaining why backing Home underdogs is becoming a decent option, the more away favs the bigger priced home underdogs we get. 

The BORE DRAW (no score draw) is of more interest. There were 21 last season and 23 the season before.

The only other season with fewer than 27 was 2010/11 (25). so we are seeing fewer goalless games. 

Best Odds At Kick Off

The next three tables show average returns per season to betting at a level 1 point stake (at Best Odds At Kick Off.) 

Returns for Home Draw Away 

You can see that home wins last season overperformed compared to previous seasons. 

This may in part have been caused by bookmakers looking for market share and offering better value odds for home teams.  

Remember these are betting odds figures, so if you had backed every team at the BOKO odds

Returns for Favourite Draw Underdog

We can see last season underdogs did well again, more value may have been on offer for outsiders with the bookies seeing more bets struck on the favs and therefore pushing out the underdog odds at kick-off time. 

The next table is a breakdown in more detail of the above two tables. 

Odds On Favourites

For those who like to bet odds on 

Here are the odds on bets and returns. 

Bookmaker Overrounds

One trend that has changed massively over this period is the bookmakers’ over round figure. (if you are unsure about what are over rounds check out this -understanding bookmaker article. 

All of my data is based on BOKO (Best Odds at Kick-Off) available at top bookmakers but excluding exchanges.

There had been a gradual diminishment over the first six years with a drop from 103.26 in 2007/08 to 100.77 in 2012/13. 

It then remained constant for two seasons at 100.80 and 100.77.

However, the past five seasons have seen figures of 100.88 100.96 101.13 101.27 and most recently 101.88. 

Various circumstances possibly affected the last figure, so let’s look at that before and after the enforced break. 

For the first 29 rounds of matches, the average BOKO was 101.75 but for the 9 rounds played after the break it was an alarming 102.29. 

Bookies may have been more careful due to the vagaries of the situation, and my source no longer collected data from two of the bookmakers that I had been using previously. 

That probably had little effect but I shall extend the list again for next season but still using only the top brands and excluding exchanges for consistency.

The BOKO factor on which all returns are based

Goals Goals Goals

Turning my attention to goals, the next table shows the number of goals per season and two other over/under angles.

It did surprise me that despite the seemingly greater emphasis on defending stoutly and counter-attacking, the number of goals scored has increased. 

There have also been many ruled out by VAR.

Total goals per season and alternative over/under statistics

Goals Per Match

So, how does the actual number of goals per match reflect the above trend? 

There is one figure that stands out immediately; the six goals in a match for last season. For now, that can only be interpreted as a statistical blip.

The EXACT GOALS group of 2 or 3 goals may need closer inspection. However, it is only the 2 goal figure that is really out of line.

Backing Specific Teams In the EPL

Finally, a look at blindly backing certain teams, maybe your own. 

Where the team might finish in the league table can be a guide. 

For the 13 seasons so far, the finishing league position of the most profitable team to back has been 9th 17th 6th 19th 15th 8th 14th 8th 7th 1st 7th 12th 7th. 

This is not really surprising as it shows teams that will have either won a fair number of matches not always at short odds or winning at very long odds a few times. 

Blackpool have proved the most lucrative to follow with a return of 52.28 pts in their only season at this level during the 13 years. However, the following table only covers teams with at least 5 seasons data.

Chelsea is the only team to have been the most profitable and finish in the top five when winning the title in 2016/17.

Unless you are looking for a team to win many matches at short odds, the best policy is to find a mid-table side that may over-perform or spring the occasional shock - preferably both. 

Further Reading

You can read more details on my individual blogs that flesh out in more detail some of the stats.

1. ODDS ON FAVOURITES BLOG

2. FAVOURITES AND UNDERDOGS

3. PREMIER LEAGUE DRAWS