Jun 21st, 2015, 18 comments
Massive NFL and horse racing fan, more likely to discuss NFL and happy to share my thoughts.
Week 10 seen the OLBG Experts land a third straight consensus accumulator.
Week 11 sees the week start with an all AFC clash of teams with possible playoff implications for later in the season.
We offer two possible bets for your consideration from the TNF game.
Another week in the record books and the season is flying by. Week 10 wasn’t without its dramas on and off the field but for the most part the OLBG NFL Experts panel managed to negotiate it unscathed.
What will Week 11 bring? As always it starts on Thursday Night with two AFC teams on four game winning streaks so the stakes look high! Who do we like? How did we do last week? Read on to find out...
WEEK 10 REVIEW:
For the third week in a row the consensus acca lands as our unanimous fivefold hit home. Admittedly it wasn’t at a price that would make you rich but a winner is always a good price! Only the Steelers let it down on the handicap and only the Bears stopped our majority acca from landing as well. All in all a pretty successful week and our individual and collective pick records reflect that.
Jim Brown, the old Underdog picker, hit an excellent 11-3 and he was joined by lazarus76. Myself and arniehi hit double digits at 10-4 whilst toadie21 and TouchdownTips were still respectable at 9-5.
Week 10 started on a positive note with the majority of us hitting the winner on the TNF game but overall our record on the first day of the week still leaves a lot to be desired. Can we take another step back towards respectability this week?
20:30 EST / 01:30 GMT Kickoff.
Handicap: Steelers -7
Total Points: 44
TENNESSEE TITANS - 5/2 with SkyBet
PITTSBURGH STEELERS - 5/14 with PaddyPower
CONSENSUS: 6-0 PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Gman84: On the face of it, with the betting and the recent history this looks an obvious pick but Thursday’s haven’t been kind to us and it makes me just pause and think a bit more. The Steelers actually aren’t that great in the turnover department which is a little surprising but I think that comes down to their two losses where they got very sloppy (i.e. Big Ben’s five ints vs the Jags). It feels like they play down the oppositions level at times or just take time to warm up but the former point can also be considered true when you look at them ending the Chiefs winning run. In terms of matchups, the Titans struggle to rush the passer and the Steelers have the big play receivers to hurt you. We all know about Antonio Brown but rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster has been another in a long list of rookie sensations and when you add in how well the Steelers defense is playing I just can’t find enough to take the Titans. I wouldn’t be keen to take the spread of 7 though and would hunt around and see if 6.5 could be found. That half a point is massive in terms of a possible push or a win. I do think the under is the call as I don’t see this as a shootout because both teams like to run the ball which should move the clock swiftly. Pick: PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Jim Brown: Both these teams have a similar affliction - they both play far short of their best on occasions. In Pittsburgh's case that was well shown last week as they barely got past the Colts and in the Titans' case it was the week before in a OT win against the Browns. That leaves a big arrow above this game firmly pointing to the right-hand side of the “@” and the Steelers home wins this season against the Vikings and Bengals have shown the true strength of their teamwork. Yes they lost badly at home to the Jaguars, but that Jaguars side is virtually impossible to predict, home or away. Pittsburgh's roll of wins now includes defeats of the Chiefs, Bengals, Lions, and Colt, and just reads that little bit better than the Titans' winning run of the Colts, Browns, Ravens, and Bengals. It's another TNF game that could well go against what we all think, although knowing these guys I'm expecting a split decision! Tie anyone? Where's my towel? Pick: PITTSBURGH STEELERS
lazarus76: The 6-3 Titans successfully landed my NAP last week with a hard fought win over the Bengals. The performance didn’t really thrill as they nearly threw it away and they are one of those sides in the league that aren’t quite as good as they probably should be. The 7-2 Steelers had to pull out all the stops to beat the average Colts (eventually won 20-17) and the performance wasn’t that much of a surprise really as they have been prone to throwing in a stinker at times this season. For all that the Steelers sometimes don’t perform perhaps as they should they are very strong at home. The Titans are 2-2 on their travels and are also prone to throwing in a stinker. Had this game been played in Tennessee I would be on the Titans but it’s not and the weather could be a factor here. Pittsburgh can get pretty chilly and that has to favour the home team, I’m not a player on the handicap (-7) but I do think the Steelers will edge it. Pick: PITTSBURGH STEELERS
toadie21: The Steelers went into their bye week in great form but came out of it a little rusty last week against the Colts. The Titans have been going about their business quietly and are a good team but I just feel that the Steelers will be sharper this week and the Titans will struggle to score enough to win especially given their scoring record on the road and combine that with the short week and it gives the home team a big edge. Pick: PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Arniehi: Neither of these teams were particularly impressive last week, so much of my opinion is based on home field advantage here as both are also riding four game win streaks. While I really don't rate the Colts, whom the Steelers took their time over last week, the Titans have certainly been struggling to put teams away recently and Pittsburgh have the edge in both yards per game and yards against per game. With both teams on short weeks, Pittsburgh can make home advantage count and I'll take them to come away with a win in what should be a fairly tight game. Expect Antonio Brown to have a good day and it will be interesting to check his total yards for receiving in the individual player props, particularly as the Titans have been so strong against the rush all year. Pick: PITTSBURGH STEELERS
TouchdownTips: What should we make of this game?! Both teams come in on four game winning streaks, but neither has really impressed. A weird quirk of the schedule has meant that the Titans have worked their way up through the AFC North in consecutive weeks winning all three in less than convincing fashion. A margin of 3 vs the Browns and Ravens and beating the Bengals by 4. Mariota and Murray seem to be getting back to health which helps them. But this week is going to be their undoing, they face easily the best team in the North, on a short week, away from home. It doesn't look promising. The Steelers were guff against the Colts but came away with a win thanks to a late comeback and I may have to look at Juju Smith-Schuster as more than a side note when previewing the team as he had more catches than Antonio Brown. They definitely like him there so check for an anytime price, anything over 2/1 is probably a good bet. The Steelers will click eventually and despite them not breaking 30 pts all season, this could be a humbling defeat for the Titans. Pick: PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Summary and Betting Tips
Despite both these teams coming into this game only a game apart on their overall W-L record and both being on four game winning streaks, the panel sees this similar to what the markets says and the clear advantage looks to be with Pittsburgh. Again, our TNF record isn’t great and we’ve been overturned as a majority or a unanimous pick enough times to offer caution with our selection.
However, there is also a feeling that the form is now a bit more reliable so we can feel more confident in offering the Steelers as the selection.
However, when it comes to betting on them, it’s worth considering the option. This has the potential to be a low scoring game. The Steelers average just over 21 points at home and haven’t scored 30 points in any game this season whilst the Titans average over 8 points per game less on the road than at home (26.4/ game compared to 18.2/game).
So, a spread of 7 points generally doesn’t leave a lot of wriggle room -especially if the belief it will be a lowish scoring affair rings true - so I would suggest looking around for alternative spreads and 188BET offer the Steelers -6.5 at odds of 11/12. That half a point is massively important as it stops a potential push and means the Steelers only need to cover by one score (and an extra point).
A points total of 44 is worth strongly considering as an under. We’ve already covered the averages home and away and even if taking into consideration the Titans overall average points per game of 22.8 both teams combined still average under the total of 44.
So, our recommended bets are:
PITTSBURGH STEELERS on the handicap -6.5pts with 188BET at 11/12.
Under 44 points on the Total Points market at 19/20 with Marathon Bet.
Comments and feedback are welcomed and encouraged. Please reply using the comments below or bring your discussion over the OLBG American Football Forum.
You can follow me on Twitter @ChrisJBrophy.
Massive NFL and horse racing fan, more likely to discuss NFL and happy to share my thoughts.
Apr 23rd, 2018, 4 comments