You know how punters get lost in too much data or bet blindly? I break down the stats and trends so you can feel confident you’re betting with more than just gut instinct.
In Part One we approached the statistical advantage of course winners at individual courses, the main point being that certain horses are more suited to the characteristics belonging to different tracks.
In Part Two I will further this by looking at the significance of a horses racing style at different tracks, and therefore which tracks favour front runners or hold up horses etc.
To do this, I've accumulated a list of all winners and assigned a number either 1, 2, 3 or 4 depending on the running style of said horse as follows:
1 - Front Runners/Made All
2 - Tracked Leaders/Close Up
3 - Mid Division
4 - Held Up/Rear
Then I simply worked out an average figure for each course and an overall average figure to use as standard.
Here are the results:
It comes as no surprise that a course like Doncaster favours horses generally held up towards the back of the pack. The mile straight on a flat galloping track like that provides ample opportunity to come off a strong pace and pick up well.
No less surprising should be the favouring towards those who race prominently at Brighton, Carlisle, Chester and Warwick where there finishing straight is very short and clearly hinders those trying to make up ground.
I'm not completely decided on part three, whether to go for a course type analysis or the targetting of courses by certain trainers. Let me know what you think guys.
Further reading on course characteristics is available on our how to find winners betting school article.
