Laying Horse Racing Favourites On Betfair

Around 2 out of 3 Favourites LOSE! You can make money on Betfair by finding them. Here is some help.
Laying Horse Racing Favourites On Betfair
Nigel Skinner
Nigel Skinner Blog Content Manager

Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites

Horse Racing Favourites

This blog has been regularly updated since it was first published in 2012; however, the premise remains the same: you can make money by laying favourites to lose. 

In the context of exchange betting'laying' means betting against a particular outcome. In this blog, we're specifically talking about betting against the favourite winning. 

Favourites are created by the bookmakers based on: 

  • The previous form of the horse
  • Pertinent statistics on the horse/trainer/jockey race. 
  • The expected popularity of the horse.
  • The competitiveness of the race. 
  • The actual weight of money bet on the selection.
  • The bookmakers wish to create balanced and profitable books.

Once they have all the information they require, they publish the odds and then amend the odds as bets are placed. 

This movement of odds is instigated to ensure that they make enough money to profit regardless of the outcome. 

Favourites

Odds Available
The betting exchange odds and bookmaker odds mirror each other.

Imagine a two-runner horse race where the favourite is heavily supported and the price is cut every 30 minutes. The bookmakers will look to take in bets for the other horse so they can balance their book. They will do this by making the outsider a very attractive bet by offering bigger and bigger odds. 

Now we know that around 35% of outright horse racing favourites win their races, and that percentage has been fairly steady for many years. However, that does mean 65% do not win.

YearOutright FavouritesOdds On Favourites
202334.30%61.24%
202235.60%58.25%
202134.90%58.57%
202034.50%58.77%

As you can see when a horse is odds on the favourite does win more often but still loses around 40% of the time.

To recap you have 65% of horse racing favourites losing and 40% of odds on horse racing favourites losing.

Once you have a betting exchange account you can start trying to make money by laying favourites.

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Horse Racing Favourite Statistics

You can now compare favourites per month, below are the winning favourites for 2024, including the percentage.  

MonthRacesWinsLosersPercentage
January 202478330248138.57%
February 202474530643941.07%
March 202485930655335.62%
April 202494732062733.79%
May 2024125942283733.52%
June 2024110939071935.17%

 


Horse Racing Odds On Favourites Statistics

MonthRaces With Odds On Outright FavouritesWinnersLosersPercentage
January 2024163976659.51%
February 20241701046661.18%
March 2024160956559.38%
April 2024168957356.55%
May 2024160976360.63%
June 2024144895561.18%


  

Horse Racing Laying Example

As you progress on your exchange learning curve, you will start to recognise which races are suitable for laying horses and which races should be avoided. 

When you were choosing horses to back with a bookmaker, you often looked, I suspect, for races that looked non-competitive, as this made finding the winner easier. 

When you want to lay the favourite, you must reverse this and look for competitive races at the bookies with LOTS OF POSSIBLE WINNERS. 

The two sample bookmaker races below show that Frankel appears to have a much easier race than Enable. 

FrankelEnable
1.93
53.25
73.75
124.33
145
216
269
3410
100.53%171.00%

Frankel is odds on, and the next horse in the betting range is 5.0 (4/1). 

Enable is odds against and has a host of horses in the market at similar prices. 

The total percentage in Frankel's race is just above 100%, but the total percentage in Enable's race is huge, indicating that the race is very open. 

These are made-up examples to give you an indication of over rounds. Collecting percentages can be a good exercise, and it will pay dividends in your laying. 

When you check the exchange prices, you should look for competitive races such as Enables for laying purposes. 

The exchange prices will be different but will follow the overall theme of the bookmaker prices. 

As you watch more markets, it becomes much easier  to recognise the best races with the bookies, and then transfer your actual wagers to taking on the favourites on the exchange.

You will not get everything right but the choice of race is one of the key attributes to successful laying.  

You can read more about horses racing percentages on the OLBG Odds Converter Blog.

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Horse Racing Favourite Statistics

When the favourite loses, generally, the bookmakers win and win more.

The horse is the favourite because it has been supported and received the most bets and money placed on them.

But as we know, there is more to them, such as shortening and lengthening prices.

Look for races where the head of the market is weak and take those horses on by laying them on the Betfair Exchange.

Odds Compiling
Imagine you are working at the bookmakers and have to price up a horse race, if you find it hard then it is likely the odds compilers also find it hard, those are the races that may indicate weak favourites.

Bookmaker Calculations

I write down all the favourites over all the meetings and add up the percentage that each favourite currently offers compared to the rest of the book.

So you may have the first race with a total book percentage of 120% and the favourite at, say, 5/2 (28.57%), and the second race with a total book percentage of 110% but the favourite at 3/1(25%).

  • Race 1: 8 run (5/2) 28.57%
  • Race 2: 7 run (3/1) 25.00%
  • Race 3: 11run (7/4) 36.36%
  • Race 4: 8 run (6/4) 40.00%
  • Race 5: 16 run (7/1) 12.50%
  • Race 6: 9 run (4/1) 20.00%

When you have these percentages written down across ALL THE CARDS and side by side, it becomes much easier to see and read weak favourites, compare and contrast, as they used to say in school exams.

Now, obviously, the 7/1 favourite is a bigger risk than the 7/4 favourite; that is where the layer's skill needs to be honed. 

This learned skill can take time. The need to watch many markets and see how they play out is crucial in understanding the ebb and flow of odds. 

Reading The Market
When you make a laying mistake or a race goes against you, learn from it. Financially, you will not win 100% of the time, but your market understanding will improve from every setback.

When you are armed with the above stats and knowing that on a regular 6 runner race card a maximum of 3 favourites are going to win at a particular meeting it becomes easier to intuitively see what is happening.

Although do be aware that one 1 day 6 favourites could win on a race card and the next day 0 favourites win on a race card.

Horse Racing Meetings

A horse race consists of lots of elements, trainers, odds, going, jockeys, prize money, runners, distance, form, handicaps, all weather etc. 

Many of these elements are related not just individual meetings but on the day as a whole, you as a layer need to be aware of them all. 

The more horse racing information you have the better your decision making will be. 

Odds v Runners Relationship
When you note how many runners in a race check what price the favourite is trading at. The favourite at 4.0 in a 5 runner race is a big price, whereas the favourite at 4.0 in a 10 runner race is about right.

Here is typical midweek day of race meetings, we have broken down all the 11.00 am favourites along with how many runners are in the race, and each individual meetings average and overall odds. 

N.B: These bookmaker odds will change as the race gets nearer, but use them as a guide, remember all the time you are adding information readying you to make a laying decision.  

TrackTimeHorseRunnersOddsAverage OddsTotal MeetingOdds
Ayr2.3Tilsitt73.75
Ayr3.05Strong Warrior42.2
Ayr3.4La Boo83
Ayr4.15Novello Lad103.25
Ayr4.5The Gay Blade134.33
Ayr5.25Helter Skelter73.753.3820.28
Ballinrobe5.1Cordouan92.5
Ballinrobe5.4Presence133.75
Ballinrobe6.1Jack Spriggins83
Ballinrobe6.4Bear Profit73.5
Race Meeting v Odds Relationship
Look at each meeting individually and check which meeting has the shortest and biggest priced favourites. This analysis will help point you in the right direction on which meetings offer value laying opportunities, and which races should be avoided.

Today's Race Meetings

Weak Horse Racing Favourites on OLBG

On OLBG we receive 000’s of horse racing tips in the OLBG tipping competition, here you can read and follow the most popular horse racing selections of the day.

Tipsters assess the form and the market and then add their best bets and horse racing tips..... their study can help us!

  • To help in finding weak favourites, look at which favourites have received lots of OLBG tips and which favourites only a few.
  • If a forecast favourite is not on the list of most tipped horses on OLBG then consider this as a potential lay.
  • Look for races where there is a spread of horses being tipped, thus making the race competitive.
  • You can also separate the daily meetings on the horse racing tips pages and view which meeting is best or worse for tipped favourites.

If a favourite is not on this popular list then that horse should be considered.

Below is a snapshot of 1 meeting with the most popular tipped horses at 9.00AM.  

EventSelectionOddsTips
2.10 KelsoElvis Mail1.39 of 12 tips
2.40 KelsoBennys Secret45 of 14 tips
3.10 KelsoUeueteotl65 of 12 tips
3.40 KelsoAnother Venture2.8810 of 17 tips
4.10 KelsoHalcyon Days4.336 of 15 tips
4.40 KelsoSir Lonica1.83 of 8 tips
5.10 KelsoRoyal Reserve1.9112 of 15 tips

In the above example, the 3.10 and 4.10 had horses that were not forecast favourites receiving the most tips.

This means the forecast favourite was not the most tipped and could be a possible lay.

Remembering you have already created your percentage favourites list above, so you are building your knowledge on a horse and race with each piece of research undertaken. 

Then choose the best betting exchange which gives the shortest lay price on your researched horse.

The Risks In Laying Horse Racing Favourites

Once you have laid the favourite, you will, of course, be concerned that if the horse wins, you will lose your money—more than your initial stake. 

Some of your lay bets will win, and the way to accept these losing outcomes is to ensure that your record-keeping is perfect and that you do not stake too heavily until you have built up your betting bank.

Keeping Betting Records
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Keeping Betting Records

Once you have accumulated funds in your bank, the losses you experience just need to be seen as part of the process. As long as you always protect your bank, these losses can be managed. 

There will be peaks and troughs, but records should always be maintained.

Your results of £10 lays may look something like this: 

OddsResultProfit/Loss
3Win10
3.5LOST-25
1.8Win10
1.5LOST-5
2Win10
3Win10
1.9LOST-9
2.2Won10
2Won10
2.7Won10

Responsible Gambling

Whether you are backing horses or laying them, the following articles are worth reading and provide a helpful guide to responsible gambling, which we all need to adhere to.

Responsible Gambling Features, Function and Help
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Editorial Information

OLBG betting expert Nigel Skinner wrote the original article and has regularly updated the content. The information is based on his experiences in horse racing betting over the last twenty years.

Nigel Skinner

Nigel Skinner

Blog Content Manager

Nigel is one of OLBG's senior editors with 19 years of industry experience. Today he specialises in researching and writing about the betting angles to political and mainstream news stories and being the OLBG in-house expert on 'next football manager' betting markets.

Specialist Subjects๐Ÿ”ฌ๐Ÿ“š

โšฝ๏ธ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ’ผ Nigel is an Arsenal fan first and foremost but has an unrivalled knowledge of English football managers at every level. Meticulously putting together our Next Manager articles, Nigel can quite possibly name you every manager of every club in the land, not to mention a pretty good eye for predicting replacements when changes happen. 

๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“Š๐Ÿ“‰ A long-time exchange trader and spread betting fan, Nigel is our go-to for advice on the subjects and uses them daily in his own betting activity. 

๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ๐Ÿ’ผ Finally, Nigel loves his politics and [some would say] has an unhealthy interest in the day-to-day events in the UK's political landscape, contributing to all our Political betting content and new pieces.

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