
Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites
Horse Racing Favourites
This blog has been regularly updated since it was first published in 2012; however, the premise remains the same: you can make money by laying favourites to lose.
In the context of exchange betting, 'laying' means betting against a particular outcome. In this blog, we're specifically talking about betting against the favourite winning.
Favourites are created by the bookmakers based on:
- The previous form of the horse
- Pertinent statistics on the horse/trainer/jockey race.
- The expected popularity of the horse.
- The competitiveness of the race.
- The actual weight of money bet on the selection.
- The bookmakers wish to create balanced and profitable books.
Once they have all the information they require, they publish the odds and then amend the odds as bets are placed.
This movement of odds is instigated to ensure that they make enough money to profit regardless of the outcome.
Favourites
Odds Available
Imagine a two-runner horse race where the favourite is heavily supported and the price is cut every 30 minutes. The bookmakers will look to take in bets for the other horse so they can balance their book. They will do this by making the outsider a very attractive bet by offering bigger and bigger odds.
Now we know that around 35% of outright horse racing favourites win their races, and that percentage has been fairly steady for many years. However, that does mean 65% do not win.
Year | Outright Favourites | Odds On Favourites |
---|---|---|
2023 | 34.30% | 61.24% |
2022 | 35.60% | 58.25% |
2021 | 34.90% | 58.57% |
2020 | 34.50% | 58.77% |
As you can see when a horse is odds on the favourite does win more often but still loses around 40% of the time.
To recap you have 65% of horse racing favourites losing and 40% of odds on horse racing favourites losing.
Once you have a betting exchange account you can start trying to make money by laying favourites.

Betting Exchanges UK - The best sites in the UK
Horse Racing Favourite Statistics
You can now compare favourites per month, below are the winning favourites for 2024, including the percentage.
Month | Races | Wins | Losers | Percentage |
---|---|---|---|---|
January 2024 | 783 | 302 | 481 | 38.57% |
February 2024 | 745 | 306 | 439 | 41.07% |
March 2024 | 859 | 306 | 553 | 35.62% |
April 2024 | 947 | 320 | 627 | 33.79% |
May 2024 | 1259 | 422 | 837 | 33.52% |
June 2024 | 1109 | 390 | 719 | 35.17% |
Horse Racing Odds On Favourites Statistics
Month | Races With Odds On Outright Favourites | Winners | Losers | Percentage |
---|---|---|---|---|
January 2024 | 163 | 97 | 66 | 59.51% |
February 2024 | 170 | 104 | 66 | 61.18% |
March 2024 | 160 | 95 | 65 | 59.38% |
April 2024 | 168 | 95 | 73 | 56.55% |
May 2024 | 160 | 97 | 63 | 60.63% |
June 2024 | 144 | 89 | 55 | 61.18% |
Horse Racing Laying Example
As you progress on your exchange learning curve, you will start to recognise which races are suitable for laying horses and which races should be avoided.
When you were choosing horses to back with a bookmaker, you often looked, I suspect, for races that looked non-competitive, as this made finding the winner easier.
When you want to lay the favourite, you must reverse this and look for competitive races at the bookies with LOTS OF POSSIBLE WINNERS.
The two sample bookmaker races below show that Frankel appears to have a much easier race than Enable.
Frankel | Enable |
---|---|
1.9 | 3 |
5 | 3.25 |
7 | 3.75 |
12 | 4.33 |
14 | 5 |
21 | 6 |
26 | 9 |
34 | 10 |
100.53% | 171.00% |
Frankel is odds on, and the next horse in the betting range is 5.0 (4/1).
Enable is odds against and has a host of horses in the market at similar prices.
The total percentage in Frankel's race is just above 100%, but the total percentage in Enable's race is huge, indicating that the race is very open.
These are made-up examples to give you an indication of over rounds. Collecting percentages can be a good exercise, and it will pay dividends in your laying.
When you check the exchange prices, you should look for competitive races such as Enables for laying purposes.
The exchange prices will be different but will follow the overall theme of the bookmaker prices.
As you watch more markets, it becomes much easier to recognise the best races with the bookies, and then transfer your actual wagers to taking on the favourites on the exchange.
You will not get everything right but the choice of race is one of the key attributes to successful laying.
You can read more about horses racing percentages on the OLBG Odds Converter Blog.

Odds Converter | Fractional to Decimal Odds & Probability
Horse Racing Favourite Statistics
When the favourite loses, generally, the bookmakers win and win more.
The horse is the favourite because it has been supported and received the most bets and money placed on them.
But as we know, there is more to them, such as shortening and lengthening prices.
Look for races where the head of the market is weak and take those horses on by laying them on the Betfair Exchange.
Odds Compiling
Bookmaker Calculations
I write down all the favourites over all the meetings and add up the percentage that each favourite currently offers compared to the rest of the book.
So you may have the first race with a total book percentage of 120% and the favourite at, say, 5/2 (28.57%), and the second race with a total book percentage of 110% but the favourite at 3/1(25%).
- Race 1: 8 run (5/2) 28.57%
- Race 2: 7 run (3/1) 25.00%
- Race 3: 11run (7/4) 36.36%
- Race 4: 8 run (6/4) 40.00%
- Race 5: 16 run (7/1) 12.50%
- Race 6: 9 run (4/1) 20.00%
When you have these percentages written down across ALL THE CARDS and side by side, it becomes much easier to see and read weak favourites, compare and contrast, as they used to say in school exams.
Now, obviously, the 7/1 favourite is a bigger risk than the 7/4 favourite; that is where the layer's skill needs to be honed.
This learned skill can take time. The need to watch many markets and see how they play out is crucial in understanding the ebb and flow of odds.
Reading The Market
When you are armed with the above stats and knowing that on a regular 6 runner race card a maximum of 3 favourites are going to win at a particular meeting it becomes easier to intuitively see what is happening.
Although do be aware that one 1 day 6 favourites could win on a race card and the next day 0 favourites win on a race card.
Horse Racing Meetings
A horse race consists of lots of elements, trainers, odds, going, jockeys, prize money, runners, distance, form, handicaps, all weather etc.
Many of these elements are related not just individual meetings but on the day as a whole, you as a layer need to be aware of them all.
The more horse racing information you have the better your decision making will be.
Odds v Runners Relationship
Here is typical midweek day of race meetings, we have broken down all the 11.00 am favourites along with how many runners are in the race, and each individual meetings average and overall odds.
N.B: These bookmaker odds will change as the race gets nearer, but use them as a guide, remember all the time you are adding information readying you to make a laying decision.
Track | Time | Horse | Runners | Odds | Average Odds | Total MeetingOdds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ayr | 2.3 | Tilsitt | 7 | 3.75 | ||
Ayr | 3.05 | Strong Warrior | 4 | 2.2 | ||
Ayr | 3.4 | La Boo | 8 | 3 | ||
Ayr | 4.15 | Novello Lad | 10 | 3.25 | ||
Ayr | 4.5 | The Gay Blade | 13 | 4.33 | ||
Ayr | 5.25 | Helter Skelter | 7 | 3.75 | 3.38 | 20.28 |
Ballinrobe | 5.1 | Cordouan | 9 | 2.5 | ||
Ballinrobe | 5.4 | Presence | 13 | 3.75 | ||
Ballinrobe | 6.1 | Jack Spriggins | 8 | 3 | ||
Ballinrobe | 6.4 | Bear Profit | 7 | 3.5 | ||
Ballinrobe | 7.1 | See Me Through | 8 | 3 | ||
Ballinrobe | 7.4 | Forlio | 13 | 4.33 | ||
Ballinrobe | 8.1 | Carlo Bianconi | 8 | 1.57 | 3.09 | 21.65 |
Beverley | 6 | Bonnies Boy | 12 | 2.75 | ||
Beverley | 6.3 | Golden Rainbow | 12 | 5 | ||
Beverley | 7.3 | Clotherholme | 9 | 3.5 | ||
Beverley | 8 | King Sharja | 8 | 4 | ||
Beverley | 8.3 | Dandys Angel | 11 | 4 | ||
Beverley | 9 | Cakewalk | 9 | 4 | 3.87 | 23.25 |
Cartmel | 1.4 | Secret Secret | 9 | 4.5 | ||
Cartmel | 2.1 | Restandbethankful | 8 | 5 | ||
Cartmel | 2.45 | Jolie Coeur Allen | 8 | 1.83 | ||
Cartmel | 3.2 | Saint Bibiana | 11 | 4.33 | ||
Cartmel | 3.5 | No Outright Favourite | 5 | 3.75 | ||
Cartmel | 4.3 | Ilikedwayurthinkin | 8 | 2.38 | ||
Cartmel | 5 | Dr Sanderson | 10 | 3 | 3.54 | 24.79 |
Windsor | 5.18 | Ran Amok | 10 | 5.5 | ||
Windsor | 5.5 | Star Of Mehmas | 15 | 3 | ||
Windsor | 6.2 | Calumet | 9 | 2 | ||
Windsor | 6.5 | Raheen Rode | 8 | 2.1 | ||
Windsor | 7.2 | Bona Fortuna | 15 | 4.33 | ||
Windsor | 7.5 | Seek And Destroy | 6 | 2.88 | ||
Windsor | 8.5 | Salaamaat | 12 | 4.33 | 3.44 | 24.14 |
Race Meeting v Odds Relationship
Today's Race Meetings
Weak Horse Racing Favourites on OLBG
On OLBG we receive 000’s of horse racing tips in the OLBG tipping competition, here you can read and follow the most popular horse racing selections of the day.
Tipsters assess the form and the market and then add their best bets and horse racing tips..... their study can help us!
- To help in finding weak favourites, look at which favourites have received lots of OLBG tips and which favourites only a few.
- If a forecast favourite is not on the list of most tipped horses on OLBG then consider this as a potential lay.
- Look for races where there is a spread of horses being tipped, thus making the race competitive.
- You can also separate the daily meetings on the horse racing tips pages and view which meeting is best or worse for tipped favourites.
If a favourite is not on this popular list then that horse should be considered.
Below is a snapshot of 1 meeting with the most popular tipped horses at 9.00AM.
Event | Selection | Odds | Tips |
---|---|---|---|
2.10 Kelso | Elvis Mail | 1.3 | 9 of 12 tips |
2.40 Kelso | Bennys Secret | 4 | 5 of 14 tips |
3.10 Kelso | Ueueteotl | 6 | 5 of 12 tips |
3.40 Kelso | Another Venture | 2.88 | 10 of 17 tips |
4.10 Kelso | Halcyon Days | 4.33 | 6 of 15 tips |
4.40 Kelso | Sir Lonica | 1.8 | 3 of 8 tips |
5.10 Kelso | Royal Reserve | 1.91 | 12 of 15 tips |
In the above example, the 3.10 and 4.10 had horses that were not forecast favourites receiving the most tips.
This means the forecast favourite was not the most tipped and could be a possible lay.
Remembering you have already created your percentage favourites list above, so you are building your knowledge on a horse and race with each piece of research undertaken.
Then choose the best betting exchange which gives the shortest lay price on your researched horse.
The Risks In Laying Horse Racing Favourites
Once you have laid the favourite, you will, of course, be concerned that if the horse wins, you will lose your money—more than your initial stake.
Some of your lay bets will win, and the way to accept these losing outcomes is to ensure that your record-keeping is perfect and that you do not stake too heavily until you have built up your betting bank.

Keeping Betting Records
Once you have accumulated funds in your bank, the losses you experience just need to be seen as part of the process. As long as you always protect your bank, these losses can be managed.
There will be peaks and troughs, but records should always be maintained.
Your results of £10 lays may look something like this:
Odds | Result | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|
3 | Win | 10 |
3.5 | LOST | -25 |
1.8 | Win | 10 |
1.5 | LOST | -5 |
2 | Win | 10 |
3 | Win | 10 |
1.9 | LOST | -9 |
2.2 | Won | 10 |
2 | Won | 10 |
2.7 | Won | 10 |
Responsible Gambling
Whether you are backing horses or laying them, the following articles are worth reading and provide a helpful guide to responsible gambling, which we all need to adhere to.

Responsible Gambling Features, Function and Help

How to be Sensible and Gamble Responsibly (Examples)
Editorial Information
OLBG betting expert Nigel Skinner wrote the original article and has regularly updated the content. The information is based on his experiences in horse racing betting over the last twenty years.