Steve Madgwick Editor-In-Chief
Editor-In-Chief with 20 years experience covering the betting angles to breaking news stories. Daily slots player, Portsmouth fan and League Snooker Player
Further to the forum debate on the merit of following front runners or horses preferred to be held up, I went investigating if there was something to follow on a system based approach - here is what I found.
I may very well rue the day I wrote this article but in the spirit of OLBG, I present the following to you loyal readers and occasional browsers alike.
My first approach was to look specifically at handicap races and horses who had gained the comment "Held Up" by the race readers. There were going to be loads of these so I narrowed my search down to those that had gained the comment in the previous two outings and had finished either 2nd or 3rd. This approach, I applied on the basis that perhaps an effort was made and was mis-timed or something had sprung from the front and nicked the event from the runner, coming from behind that was making a genuine attempt to win the race.I decided rather than look at all races, I would so so in two categories.
Results researched from 1st May 2012 up to and including 13th May 2013 - May to September only
- Races from 5f to and including 8f
- Races from 8f up to and including 12f
First of all, the overall results were as follows
5f-8f
Restriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE | AvWSP |
ALL | 111 | 660 | 16% | 73.45 | 11% | 6.6 |
ALL (LONE) | 68 | 366 | 18% | -1.86 | -0.51% | 5.35 |
8f-12f
Restriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE | AvWSP |
ALL | 112 | 725 | 15% | -29.29 | -4.04% | 6.21 |
ALL (LONE) | 60 | 327 | 18% | 11.42 | 3.49% | 5.64 |
Another difference worth noting is that in the first set of numbers, if we had ignored races with multiple qualifiers and only bet on those races where we had a single runner, we would have seen an overall loss of 1.86pts, whilst at the longer trips, this is quite the reverse with the loss of nearly 30pts being turned into a profit of 11.42pts had we bet the LONE qualifiers only!
I can not explain why the difference exists but the fact that the mile races, (which appear in both sets of numbers) when looked at in isolation, provide the following figures, makes for interesting reading.
Restriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE | AvWSP |
Dist: 08f | 48 | 256 | 18% | 54.78 | 21% | 6.47 |
Call me mad but something so simple never satisfies my mind - Four hours of getting the numbers together to discover something good inside with four minutes is a travesty to my analytical mindset. (but I will be looking very closely at them for future reference!)
What I was hoping to find were maybe jockeys or trainers to follow; particularly those of a less well known nature as we may also get some good prices to boot. I shall cover this off later in the piece but for now, I want to look at aspects such as;
- Race Distance (We already know that 8f is going to outstrip the rest)
- Age (My instinct suggests to me that 2yo results may not be as reliable)
- Class (Is there any difference as we go up the class ranks?)
- Going (Are results more reliable on certain ground conditions?)
- Month (Are particular times of the year better than others?)
- Days since last run (On the basis that if a previous run had been mis-timed, will connections try to strike again quickly?)
RACE DISTANCE:
Restriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE | AvWSP |
Dist: 05f | 16 | 88 | 18% | -15.14 | -18% | 4.55 |
Dist: 06f | 26 | 165 | 15% | -30.17 | -19% | 5.18 |
Dist: 07f | 21 | 151 | 13% | 64 | 42% | 10.23 |
Dist: 08f | 48 | 256 | 18% | 54.78 | 21% | 6.47 |
Ignore the 5f and 6f trips and we have a profit of
Restriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE |
Dist: 07f | 21 | 151 | 13% | 64 | 42% |
Dist: 08f | 48 | 256 | 18% | 54.78 | 21% |
Subtotal: | 69 | 407 | 17% | 118.78 | 29% |
From the highlighted total, profit has improved to 29%ROI and 118pts to single point level stakes; the strategy being: Follow runners in 7f & 8f races that were held up but finished 2rd or 3rd in either of their last two outings over any trip.
AGE:
As it turned out, my initial thoughts about 2yos in nurseries was incorrect, although the profit is produced by just 4 winners from 29 runners and would test the most patient of systemitesRestriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE |
Age: 02yo | 4 | 29 | 13% | 4.5 | 15% |
Age: 03yo | 40 | 226 | 17% | -27.56 | -13% |
Age: 04yo | 32 | 145 | 22% | 43.58 | 30% |
Age: 05yo | 13 | 92 | 14% | 18 | 19% |
Age: 06yo | 4 | 60 | 6% | -41.39 | -69% |
Age: 07yo | 12 | 59 | 20% | 49.33 | 83% |
Age: 08yo | 4 | 36 | 11% | -6 | -17% |
Age: 09yo | 2 | 12 | 16% | 34 | 283% |
Age: 10yo | 0 | 1 | 0% | -1 | -100% |
There is no angle to take from here, so I leave the numbers for illustrative purposes only. Whilst 4, 5 & 7yos followed in isolation would be the most profitable back-fitting exercise, I see no point.
CLASS OF RACE:
Restriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE |
Class 1 | 1 | 3 | 33% | 1 | 33% |
Class 2 | 15 | 133 | 11% | -25.34 | -20% |
Class 3 | 14 | 86 | 16% | 17.5 | 20% |
Class 4 | 25 | 154 | 16% | -19.75 | -13% |
Class 5 | 33 | 173 | 19% | 51.7 | 29% |
Class 6 | 23 | 111 | 20% | 48.34 | 43% |
Class Listed | 1 | 3 | 33% | 1 | 33% |
Again the profits are intermittent as we run down the grades with class 2 and 4 showing losses but 3, 5 & 6 showing good profit. I suppose one could follow only the bottom grades in 5 and 6, resulting in the following returns.
Restriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE |
Class 5 | 33 | 173 | 19% | 51.7 | 29% |
Class 6 | 23 | 111 | 20% | 48.34 | 43% |
Subtotal: | 56 | 284 | 20% | 100.04 | 35% |
GOING:
My instinct on this one was closer to being correct although I would have thought good to soft and soft may have been the other way round.Restriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE | AvWSP |
Going: G | 38 | 204 | 18% | 52.08 | 25% | 6.74 |
Going: GF | 33 | 204 | 16% | 32.54 | 15% | 7.16 |
Going: GS | 10 | 86 | 11% | -13.75 | -16% | 7.22 |
Going: H | 3 | 30 | 10% | -8.75 | -30% | 7.08 |
Going: S | 27 | 136 | 19% | 11.33 | 8.33% | 5.45 |
Restriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE |
Going: G | 38 | 204 | 18% | 52.08 | 25% |
Going: GF | 33 | 204 | 16% | 32.54 | 15% |
Subtotal: | 71 | 408 | 17% | 84.62 | 21% |
Again, great returns on following only good and good to firm with a 21%ROI, but I shan't advise this as a separate approach, going is such a subjective variable.
TIME OF YEAR:
Whilst the sample takes in the racing through only May to September, (reason being, I am not a fan of the flat at the beginning nor the end of the season), I though it might be interesting just to see how each month performed in isolation.Restriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE |
Month: 05 | 20 | 111 | 18% | 9.86 | 8.88% |
Month: 06 | 28 | 133 | 21% | 30.5 | 22% |
Month: 07 | 22 | 137 | 16% | 13.39 | 9.77% |
Month: 08 | 16 | 148 | 10% | -54 | -37% |
Month: 09 | 25 | 131 | 19% | 73.66 | 56% |
Look at August, smack bang in the middle of the numbers making a mess of things! Incredible too how September came back with a bang. I just don't know what to read into this on the basis of a single years analysis. It is a bit frustrating to find it. I am left only with the option of running the number back over a few more years prior to see if there is a trend with the month of August not being friendly, or indeed if any of the other months turn around. Going forward for 2013, I will ignore this aspect but should things take a down-turn in August I may scale back stakes.
DAYS SINCE LAST RUN:
This is precisely what I was expecting to find, a quick return to the track after failing to win under a previous hold up rideRestriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE |
DSR: 001 to 010 days | 37 | 185 | 20% | 52.18 | 28% |
DSR: 011 to 020 days | 40 | 248 | 16% | 13.17 | 5.31% |
DSR: 021 to 040 days | 27 | 158 | 17% | 24.98 | 15% |
DSR: 041 to 060 days | 2 | 27 | 7% | -13.5 | -50% |
DSR: 061 to 100 days | 2 | 11 | 18% | -0.25 | -2.28% |
DSR: 101 to 200 days | 1 | 6 | 16% | -1.67 | -28% |
DSR: 201 to 300 days | 2 | 22 | 9% | 1.5 | 6.81% |
DSR: 301 days + | 0 | 3 | 0% | -3 | -100% |
Restriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE |
DSR: 001 to 010 days | 37 | 185 | 20% | 52.18 | 28% |
DSR: 011 to 020 days | 40 | 248 | 16% | 13.17 | 5.31% |
DSR: 021 to 040 days | 27 | 158 | 17% | 24.98 | 15% |
Subtotal: | 104 | 591 | 18% | 90.33 | 15% |
JOCKEYS & TRAINERS:
I did mention having a look at Jockeys as a point of interest here. I'm not sure if I will take any notice of these numbers going forward, again they are subjective but I thought you may find it interesting just to see the results anyway.I am accounting only for those with 10 or more qualifiers, (there are plenty of 1-1 100% strike rates but for me it means nothing. These are organised in strike rate order: Make of them what you will, ut also be aware when finding some nice looking LSP's the Average winners SP too! (AvWSP)
Restriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE | AvWSP |
Jockey: D Tudhope | 5 | 12 | 41% | 13.86 | 115% | 5.17 |
Jockey: P Hanagan | 7 | 19 | 36% | 29.58 | 155% | 6.94 |
Jockey: P McDonald | 4 | 11 | 36% | 20.5 | 186% | 7.87 |
Jockey: R Hughes | 5 | 14 | 35% | 6.86 | 49% | 4.17 |
Jockey: B McHugh | 3 | 10 | 30% | 54 | 540% | 21.33 |
Jockey: K Fallon | 3 | 11 | 27% | 7 | 63% | 6 |
Jockey: G Lee | 3 | 13 | 23% | 11 | 84% | 8 |
Jockey: T Eaves | 3 | 14 | 21% | 1.81 | 12% | 5.27 |
Jockey: J P Spence | 2 | 10 | 20% | 4 | 40% | 7 |
Jockey: William Bu | 2 | 10 | 20% | -2 | -20% | 4 |
Jockey: S De Sousa | 2 | 11 | 18% | 9.5 | 86% | 10.25 |
Jockey: J Fanning | 2 | 11 | 18% | -1 | -9.10% | 5 |
Jockey: P Mulrenna | 2 | 14 | 14% | -5.25 | -38% | 4.37 |
Jockey: James P Su | 3 | 23 | 13% | -9.75 | -43% | 4.41 |
Jockey: W A Carson | 1 | 10 | 10% | -2 | -20% | 8 |
Jockey: R Winston | 1 | 10 | 10% | -6.5 | -65% | 3.5 |
Jockey: Luke Morri | 1 | 11 | 9% | -6.5 | -60% | 4.5 |
The trainers offer some interEsting results both at the top and bottom end, and this I WILL be taking into account
Restriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE | AvWSP |
Trainer: R A Fahey | 7 | 19 | 36% | 46.5 | 244% | 9.35 |
Trainer: D B O'Mear | 4 | 15 | 26% | 9.33 | 62% | 6.08 |
Trainer: Mrs R Carr | 6 | 25 | 24% | 11.25 | 45% | 6.04 |
Trainer: T D Easter | 3 | 13 | 23% | 5 | 38% | 6 |
Trainer: R Hannon | 4 | 20 | 20% | 2.58 | 12% | 5.64 |
Trainer: P T Midgle | 2 | 11 | 18% | -2.5 | -23% | 4.25 |
Trainer: J S Goldie | 1 | 10 | 10% | 3 | 30% | 13 |
Trainer: M Dods | 1 | 12 | 8% | -8.75 | -73% | 3.25 |
Trainer: Miss Tracy | 1 | 12 | 8% | -6.5 | -55% | 5.5 |
Trainer: M R Channo | 1 | 16 | 6% | -13 | -82% | 3 |
Trainer: D M Simcoc | 0 | 12 | 0% | -12 | -100% | 0 |
Trainer: J M Bradle | 0 | 13 | 0% | -13 | -100% | 0 |
COURSES
You might also be interested in some course information,I have to admit some surprise in finding Beverly top of the tree. Although in retrospect on such a tight track it might be considered that hold up horse might run out of time to make runs.interesting all the same.it looks like there is a good steer toward front runners too for Lingfield, Goodwood and Ascot!Restriction | Wins | Runs | W% | WLSP | WPOE | AvWSP |
Course: BEVE | 8 | 25 | 32% | 41.86 | 167% | 8.35 |
Course: SAND | 2 | 18 | 11% | 19.5 | 108% | 18.75 |
Course: MUSS | 5 | 16 | 31% | 15 | 93% | 6.2 |
Course: NEWC | 5 | 32 | 15% | 21.86 | 68% | 10.77 |
Course: REDC | 4 | 15 | 26% | 7.5 | 50% | 5.62 |
Course: DONC | 6 | 35 | 17% | 17 | 48% | 8.66 |
Course: NEWB | 2 | 13 | 15% | 5 | 38% | 9 |
Course: AYR | 7 | 30 | 23% | 10.75 | 35% | 5.82 |
Course: CHEP | 3 | 18 | 16% | 2.5 | 13% | 6.83 |
Course: CATT | 2 | 11 | 18% | 1 | 9.09% | 6 |
Course: RIPO | 3 | 16 | 18% | 1.33 | 8.31% | 5.77 |
Course: BRIG | 8 | 30 | 26% | 2 | 6.66% | 4 |
Course: BATH | 6 | 23 | 26% | 1.5 | 6.52% | 4.09 |
Course: THIR | 2 | 26 | 7% | 1.5 | 5.76% | 13.75 |
Course: HAMI | 5 | 25 | 20% | -1.5 | -6% | 4.7 |
Course: YORK | 4 | 25 | 16% | -2.5 | -10% | 5.62 |
Course: CARL | 2 | 14 | 14% | -1.5 | -11% | 6.25 |
Course: WIND | 4 | 22 | 18% | -3.75 | -18% | 4.56 |
Course: CHES | 2 | 25 | 8% | -6 | -24% | 9.5 |
Course: HAYD | 3 | 23 | 13% | -5.5 | -24% | 5.83 |
Course: NEWM | 8 | 70 | 11% | -25.86 | -37% | 5.52 |
Course: YARM | 3 | 20 | 15% | -10.25 | -52% | 3.25 |
Course: GOOD | 1 | 23 | 4% | -18 | -79% | 5 |
Course: ASCO | 1 | 33 | 3% | -27.5 | -84% | 5.5 |
Course: LING | 0 | 11 | 0% | -11 | -100% | 0 |
SUMMARY OF THE SYSTEM:
Well, there you have it, potentially a profitable approach to handicap betting for race up to a mile on the flat this summer if the runner had gained a "Held Up" comment in either of its previous 2 outings.I am going to run the figure back over the past 5 years now to see how consistent they may be (this is usually the point at which I discover my first test is the only profitable time span), but to leave you with some options for this approach
- Follow runners in 7f & 8f races that were held up but finished 2rd or 3rd in either of their last two outings over any trip.
- Follow runners in 5f to 8f races in class 5 & 6 races that were held up but finished 2rd or 3rd in either of their last two outings over any trip.
- Follow runners in 5f to 8f races that were held up but finished 2rd or 3rd in either of their last two outings over any trip and last ran under 40 days prior.
I may well apply a basic 1-5pt staking plan to this in that
each qualifier will gain a 1pt follow, and an extra point for each
of the three criteria above will come into force as
applicable.
Another point applicable with discretionary use, for either
one of the top trainers from the tables above
I'll take a look at front runners for my next Systems
article
If you have any comments of questions please let me know
below