Germany haven’t lost a World War since 1945: A guide to when statistics can be a help or a hindrance

Statistics Introduction

When betting, statistics can often unveil some great value, but can also, be misleading to the detriment of punters. 

We feature stats and trends in many of our betting school articles, as know members have a passion for this subject

The title statistic of Germany not losing a World War since 1945 is correct, or it could be reported that “Germany are unbeaten in World Wars in nearly 70 years” is another statistic which would be correct. 

These are the sorts of statistics you are likely to hear John Motson telling us at the start of Match of the Day, 

Especially with newly promoted teams, such as Cardiff play this season we may hear “Cardiff haven't managed even a point against Manchester United since 1961”, when in fact they had only played them twice since 1961 before drawing in November.

Now, most people can see past these statistics but it is a similar statistic that can often be taken too seriously. 

An example of this type of statistic will be when a Championship side gets promoted and plays Manchester City or someone who has greatly improved since they last played this team, and we will hear “Manchester City have won on only one of their last fifteen trips to Middlesbrough” which is a real statistic. 

Yes, but this time they won't have Darius Vassell John Macken and Benjani upfront, and Sergio Aguero and Alvaro Negredo will fancy their chances.

Statistics like this can be useful if nothing major has changed at the club, for example, Manchester United's record at Villa Park has always been great because both teams haven't really changed too much, apart from Villa getting slightly worse, but these trends won't be ignored by odds-compilers. 

However, with football clubs changing all the time these kinds of records are rendered mute. 

To give one last example of these changes: Southampton last got a point at Old Trafford in the 1999/2000 season when they were at-best a mid-table team, more perennial relegation fodder. 

This season they got a point, but they are looking to establish themselves as a top-half team and paid £15 million for a player in the summer, and have their best team in a long, long time.

If you're reading this blog then it is likely that you have more than just a passing interest in football betting so rushing your accumulator selections at 2:54 pm on a Saturday afternoon has occurred at some point in your gambling “career” (?) where the following has happened:

“Team X has won their last 3 at home, how are they nearly Evens to win again today? They're going in the acca”.

 If you're looking at a Top European team, then yes they probably will win, because they are going to win most of their home games, but when you're looking at Kidderminster Harriers home form like that it is not so black and white. Who have they played in their last 3 home games? Is 3 home games really a good representation of their home form over the season?

Oh, they've played the bottom 3 teams in the league? That will explain that one then. It can also work in reverse, take Southampton a few weeks ago, they only had 1 win in 9 games, so why were they odds on for games? Because they had played 7 of the top 8 in those 9 games, and you don't become a bad team overnight.

Home and away statistics are used all the time, and on the whole, they are very helpful, but at the same time is it important, especially in early-mid season matches, to see who the teams have played in these games. 

They may have played all the bottom sides at home, and then top sides away, skewing their record and therefore not leaving a good representation of their ability.

So Many Statistics to Use These Days

Go back 20 years and in bookmakers, you would have your full-time coupons, and you would be able to bet on certain matches, with first goalscorer, double result, and correct score about the maximum you might get. 

With the advent of online-betting due to bet365, you can now bet on around 200 markets in a game. 

• Handicap betting in Israeli women's matches? Check. 
• Conference North team to win from behind? Check. 
• The number of 1st half corners in a Georgian Cup game? Check.

You get the point. 

You can really bet on whatever you want to these days, and even if it not priced up you might be able to get a price on it, for example, those who bet on their sons to play for England.

With sites such as Soccerbase, WhoScored, and Squawka you can now find out statistics to support your betting decisions in these markets. 

Want to know the number of corners West Ham have had away from this season? 

A simple Google search would give you an answer, years ago that might have involved keeping the newspaper cuttings from Sunday papers!

The NFL is full of statistics, in fact, they are obsessed with stats. 

They have shows on almost 24/7 discussing “Football”, and give them a few stats about a second-choice running back and there's another half an hour segment filled. 

Whilst we are not quite at that level yet, with WhoScored market betting we are certainly heading there.

In association with BetVictor, they now offer prices on who will have the most tackles in the games, the most shots, the “highest-rated player” based on a number of statistics that player has in the game, and occasionally possession. 

There are now “tipsters” who you can pay for tips on these markets and fair play to them, or so it appears from the (most annoying thing on Twitter) BOOOOOMM you will see on your timeline occasionally. 

If you have enough time, energy, and grip on the game you can go through the player's past statistics, and if you know the opposition they are coming up against you can probably predict who is going to be involved in the game.

 For example, Aston Villa's left-back Antonio is enduring a particularly difficult spell, so managers decided to target Villa's left-wing. 

You could then go and back this assumption by backing their opposition's right midfielder to have the most shots, highest-rated, and even be the man of the match.

With WhoScored joining forces with bookmakers, and so many statistics these days, it can only be a matter of time until we see markets such as “Player x to have under 35 passes in a game- 5/6” because people really will bet on anything, especially if they think they have “an edge”

With all these statistics recorded all over the internet, you don't even need to see the game, or the report to get a picture of the game, and depending on the profile of the league that may help from a betting perspective. 

An example would be Manchester City's away game at Aston Villa this season, where they managed to lose 3-2, but they could play that game another 99 times and win. 

When they met at Villa Park, they had 15 shots, 13 corners, and 67% possession and still lost and conceded 3 goals. 

Yet when they went to West Ham in their next away game they won 3-1, what changed? 

Nothing much really, City were more ruthless in front of goal but dominated the game in the same way. 

The point is that City were a decent enough price against a terrible team because they had struggled on the road, but they dominated those games, and against a blunt West Ham attack they were always going to win.

That is a very high profile example of when a couple of results can make a team an attractive price, as on paper they have lost the game but they had dominated in every other department. And what is a couple of games? 

Anyone with half a grasp on statistics and science will tell you that a small sample is never going to be a good representation.

Moneyball Football?

The likes of Michael Cox and Jonathon Wilson, who have now progressed into mainstream media such is their tactical knowledge and scientific like break down of situations is becoming more and more a part of the game, akin to the movie “Moneyball”. 

There was once a time where we were happy(ish) to watch Match of the Day and get a small amount of analysis from Alan Hansen (Something along the lines of “Watch as time and time again he gets dragged out of position) and we were happy. 

Now people prefer the Monday Night Football or even Goals on Sunday approach of sitting down after every game and breaking down the tactical problems one team suffered, such is the new generation's saturation with statistics.

Watching, reading, and listening in such detail can only help people's understanding of football. 

Without suggesting that you're going to go down the pub and discuss the intricacies of a 3-5-2 formation, you're going to have a better grasp on the finer details on the game. 

Without sounding too preposterous, learning about the game can only be good for football betting.

For instance, if you see that Tim Sherwood is going for his 4-4-2 formation you might not feel as confident about facing a Swansea team who are going to pack the midfield and outnumber your team. 

Yet you see he lines up in a 4-5-1 formation then they are going to have a much better chance.

If you see Norwich line up 4-4-2 at Everton you are going to feel much better about your bet on Everton as Norwich aren't going to try and stifle them as much and Everton will win 9/10 because they have the better football players

How many times do you see mid/lower table teams go to a big club and “have a go” because supports insist that they'd rather lose “5-0 and have a go” than “1-0 with 10 men behind the ball”, really? 

Clubs going away to big teams obviously have some sort of plan, whether it is counter attack or set-pieces, but these days a more adventurous set up against a better team than you just leaves you with Alan Shearer saying “Well, fair play to them, they had a go”.

Whilst this kind of logic isn't going to appeal to everyone, and if you're having accumulators and a bet “for fun” then who cares what formations are being played, but it is certainly something to keep in mind.

As the season progresses, form tends to become more reliable I find, as new signings settle in and managers find out their best XI, however odds are likely to be much shorter until the end of the season where teams have nothing left to play for. 

At the start of the season it is often useful to look back to the end of last season unless there has been a change of manager, and two great examples of teams continuing last season's vein of form is Fulham and Arsenal. 

Fulham ended last season with a run of 6 defeats in 8, and after their freak win at Sunderland (had one shot on target) they were pushed out to 9/1 (from 5/1) to be relegated, as bookmakers anticipated a decent season, but since then they have been poor. 

Arsenal carried on last season's form (apart from the opening day loss to Villa) and when you look at how good they were to the end of last season, and the addition of Mesut Ozil it can really be no surprise that they have been genuine title contenders this season, even if they are starting to drop off now.

In conclusion, there are so many different football statistics out there to use now, that even with a small amount of “research” or “studying” you may find a market which is completely priced up wrong or a series of smaller bets which can make up an accumulator. 

Although out gut instincts about a situation and basic football knowledge are always going to be helpful (e.g you're not going to need to research Manchester City's chances of winning a home game against Fulham) there are now so many tools out there for our use that it would be foolish not to use these, but just make sure to use the right type of statistics! 

If this article has whetted your appetite for more statistics please check out the tips section,  stats are an integral part of the tipping process for many OLBG members. 

As mentioned further reading on stats is available at the betting school, across a myriad of helpful articles.