Adding Extra Value to 1X2 Bets: Part 2 - Goal Timings

Throughout my time as a punter, there have been many occasions when I think I have found the perfect 1X2 bet. 

I study the form and find a fantastic unbeatable home team. 

They are taking on a team that just can't win away.

You look at the price and it's near to or better than even money, surely you know this feeling? 

Then you probably also know the feeling of seeing that 'dead cert' fall short.  

I've had this happen an innumerable number of times now, and although, of course, many of these have come through and led to large profits, it doesn't take long to realise that n the world of football there is no such thing as a certainty.

As I have grown more experienced as a gambler and a tipster, I have moved more and more away from the standard match winner market and now my largest stakes bets are nearly always using the goals market. 

These bets can come in a number of forms, most notably via variations of goal timings and quantities.

In part 1 of this series of blogs, I took the time to have a look at how we can use the goal scoring patterns of teams in order to find value in the HT/FT market.

Here I will look at how to place bets focused around goal timings, there are plenty of markets out there!

A Game Of Two Halves - The Highest Scoring Half Market

The 'highest-scoring half' is still a scarcely used market, but it is because of this that it can, in many ways lead to excellent profits. 

Bookmakers tend to ignore the market to an extent, and we generally see little variation in the price for each selection regardless of the teams involved.

You can see the breakdown by half from 3 European leagues. 

EPL 2019/20 

Goals Scored By Half	Percentage Of Goals By Half
1st Half = 475 Goals	45.9%
2nd Half = 559 Goals	54.1%

La Liga 2019/20

Goals Scored By Half	Percentage Of Goals By Half
1st Half = 400 Goals	42.5%
2nd Half = 542 Goals	57.5%

Bundesliga 2019/20

Goals Scored By Half	Percentage Of Goals By Half
1st Half = 413 Goals	42.1%
2nd Half = 569 Goals	57.9%

The second half of games is widely known to produce the most goals, therefore resulting in a lower price when choosing this half when compared with the first half or a tie. 

The average odds to expect are around 2.1 for the second half, 3.1 for the first half, or 3.6 for a tie.

It is because of this lack of variation in price that we are able to make substantial gains if studying the goal scoring patterns of teams prior to betting.

The Holy Grail is a game involving two sides both of whom have a tendency to score the majority of their goals in the first half.

I highlighted in part 1 of this series of blogs a section of the website Soccerway which could be used to identify good HT/FT bets, and the same source can be used to find games when goals in the first or second half of games are greatly favoured.

Under the 'H2H comparison' tab when looking at an individual match, one can see a breakdown of the timings of a single team's goals, whilst also seeing an average time at which they concede the first goal in their games. 

Another website that is useful when looking for ‘highest-scoring half' bets is soccerstats.com, which has detailed breakdowns of when goals are scored and conceded by each individual team.

The simple analysis here will lead you to a deduction about whether a bet on the first or second half would prove most fruitful, although most of the time you will see around a 45/55 spread in favour of the second half.

Statistics

You need to check the statistics as the season progresses. 

We know that some managers are more cautious than others, we also know that some could be described as attacking and some more as defensive. 

They send out their teams with a certain mentality and then adjust as the game progresses. 

West Ham in 9th  scored 25 goals in the 1st half.

Sheffield United in 10th only scored 16 goals in the 1st half. 

Everton scored 27 goals in the 1st half, they only scored 17 goals in the second half. 

Wolves scored 14 in the 1st half but a huge 37 goals in the second half. 

If next season (2020/21) this continues (no guarantee) we should: 

Back West Ham and Everton in the 1st half, and lay those two teams in the 2nd half. 

Lay Wolves in the 1st half and back them in the 2nd half. 

Back Sheffield United to score in the 2nd half. 

Nutshell

West Ham and Everton tire.

Wolves are asleep in the 1st half and then given motivation at HT.

Sheffield United are cautious in the 1st half. 

After looking at these statistics over a period of time, certain teams will start to become familiar to you for being particularly useful when looking at this market. 

To Score or Not to Score? - Using Exact Goal Timings

An even more lucrative profit can be made in backing certain teams to score (or not to score) during certain periods of a game. 

Different sides are more efficient at different times during a game, and so we can often see a surprising consistency in terms of when a side scores its goals.

For instance, a team with a coach who is a fantastic motivator would be expected to score a relatively large proportion of their goals in the periods of the game just after they have taken a team talk I.e. 0-15 and 45-60 minutes. 

Teams with tactically astute managers on the other hand will often see their teams score late in either half, as a result of tactical changes made during the play. 

Check the stats to guide you.

The same sources can show us the goal scoring patterns of teams during specific 15 minute time frames during the 90, which can often show a greatly increased or decreased chance of certain teams scoring or conceding during certain times. 

Markets can be found at most bookmakers which allow the punter to bet on a goal occurring, or not occurring during certain time periods of a game. 

Although the prices for the 'no goal scored between' market are usually quite low (around the 1.3-1.6 mark depending on team and league and time period selected) one can often find teams who almost never score, for example, after half time, these bets can offer excellent value. 

Other teams score a lot of goals in specific periods in the game, say, for example, a team that keeps possession, gradually wearing their opponents down, may score a large number of goals in the final 30 minutes of a game. 

Backing a goal to occur during these times can also offer some excellent value. For instance in a previous season Ligue 1 big spenders Monaco has an amazing record in the time periods at the end of each half.

In the period of the game between 30-45 minutes, they have scored 10 and conceded 1 goal, while during 75-90 minutes they have scored 11 and conceded 0. 

This kind of information can be used either to back Monaco to score between either of these times in a game.

Alternatively if betting in-play, one can wait until the 30th or 75th minute before betting on Monaco to either take the lead before half time or to win the match if they are not already winning by 75 minutes.

By comparing the goal scoring patterns of two teams playing each other, it can seem quite obvious when a goal is likely to be scored in a match. 

Again I would recommend the use of the website soccerstats.com for this research - you are sure to find some interesting correlations.

Of course, any findings could be used in combination with the match result or correct score that you may have a feeling towards, in the often seen 'time casts' available with most bookies. 

Sometimes these can offer excellent value. 

Thanks for reading, and I hope this information can be useful for you when looking at the goal markets in football. 

Next time I will be looking at quantities, rather than timings of goals,

This will include how to get the most out of the over/under markets and naming exact quantities of goals either for individual sides or in the game as a whole.

If you missed my first blog on how to exploit the HT/FT market, you can find it here

Follow me on Twitter @DanBradleyTips and check out the OLBG betting school article on how to assess football form.