Jannik Sinner vs Francisco Cerundolo Tips

In this match, the world number one will face the difficult Argentine player. Beyond having won in the last game they played in this tournament last year, I think that this time the Italian can have his rematch.

Cerundolo is in the form of his life. He is 4-3 against top 10 players this year and beat Sinner in their last meeting at this event 2 years ago. Odds of 4.0 offer very good value.

Sinner is undefeated in 2025 and currently world No. 1, showing dominant form. He has the tools to control this matchup and secure a straight-sets victory at home.

Cerundolo won the last meeting in straight sets, also played in this tournament. Sinner has looked strong so far, but I do expect Cerundolo to grab a set in this meeting.

Sinner will take the first set. He’s quick off the mark and tends to start strong in most matches, which will put immediate pressure on Cerundolo. Cerundolo may look to challenge in the early games, but Sinner’s return game and baseline control will quickly take over. Expect a break in the first few games to set the tone.

Sinner comes here after he won the first set in his first 2 official matches for the last 3 months. Cerundolo comes here after he won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches in all competitions (all on clay), including 2 first set wins in his first 2 matches here in Rome. At these odds, I will try Cerundolo to win the first set.

I'll take this head start with Cerundolo (ranked 18) here. The 26yo Argentine is in good form and has beaten World #1 Sinner at the Foro Italico before. In 2023, Cerundolo was a very comfortable winner over the 23yo Italian in the end that day. Sinner’s return to the tour in Rome has been a very comfortable one so far, facing two underpowered opponents, the latter of which, De Jong, was also injured. Cerundolo is a big step up as the latter has now won 7 of his last 13 matches against top-10 players. The losses came against Alcaraz (3 times), Ruud, De Minaur (on hard in Australia), and Djokovic (5 sets at last year’s French Open). This match will show us exactly where Sinner is at, having missed the last few months of the season, but I'll take a shot here.

Jannik Sinner will cover the handicap against Francisco Cerundolo. Sinner’s elite clay game and ranking advantage ensure a dominant performance. Cerundolo’s solid play falls short against Sinner’s precision, allowing Sinner to win by a wide margin, covering the handicap.