3:15 Worcester Tips

Stumps Or Slips found lots of improvement for the switch to Olly Murphy's yard, winning all three starts over fences. This is his first start over hurdles since finishing 3rd over course and distance 3 years ago. But in his current form, he looks the most likely winner here.

Second last time beaten favorite, cheekpieces added and should do the trick. A drop in distance. Jockey and trainer in good form. Will be there at the finish.

The model I run suggests Mighty Fleur can win this one. Mighty Fleur lines up here with a comparably high RPR to the other runners but steps out carrying a rock bottom weight. This leaves Mighty Fleur working off an attractive mark. Very consistent placing history of 2323 but needs to find a bit more to get over the line first. Hasn't run in 88 days and needs to go well fresh. Shane Fenelon on board claims a further 5 lbs and this makes sure Mighty Fleur carries the lowest weight in the field by 5 lbs around this 2m 4f trip. Model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator which translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

Placed 11th in a bumper at Bangor on his NH debut about 16 days ago. He is now set to make his hurdles debut, but he has significant improvement to make. Adam Wedge will be riding him this time, which I think will suit the 5-year-old better. Jack Tudor appeared to take him in too early while pursuing the leaders and he was outpaced 2f out. This gelding will have benefited from that outing, and at 125/1 for an each-way bet, he warrants another chance.