4:27 Stratford Tips

Diesel Line won on bumper debut at Exeter in February 23 and was third on novice hurdle debut at Taunton in November that year. He disappointed in his 4 starts last year but has been much improved this year. Placed 3 times for Jeremy Scott, he has found more improvement since switching to Charlie Pogson. Second, beaten just 0.5 lengths on stable debut at Uttoxeter last month, he went one better 9 days later, winning by 2.5 lengths. He is up 6 lbs here, but the ease of the last win suggests he can go in again.

The model I run suggests Jet Patrol can win this one. This result has been driven by Jet Patrol having the highest RPR of the 11-runner field but an official ranking which leaves Jet Patrol looking well treated in the weights. This means he steps out carrying less on average than the other runners around this 2m 6f round trip. The model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator which translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

I think it's easy to forgive the latest run, and they only jumped two hurdles. Prior to that, he was most taking when sauntering home at Huntingdon, suggesting that a 10lb hike was workable.

BASILETTE is something of a course specialist and her penultimate run appears to give her claims. Most horses can be forgiven one poor run , so still feasibly treated in the handicap hurdles sphere in a race with a decent each-way shape race-sharp she appeals.

Comes here race fit following several runs on the flat throughout the summer and was runner-up over course and distance at this meeting last year.

Northern Rose PU last time after the rain came and softened the ground. He has otherwise run well here before, and his penultimate start saw him just 8l behind Diesel Line at Uttoxeter. He is 9lb better off today and is capable of reversing form at what seems his favourite track with quicker ground. Reliable sort and on a workable mark.

I'm taking a chance with this mare given the form of the stable. When they have winners, they are usually big prices. This one hasn't shown much apart from a second at Uttoxeter, but she is a flat winner. If they can get the tactics right and things fall into place, she could run better than she has so far. Each way.