4:30 Southwell Tips
Summary of Tipster comments
Moab is highly recommended by tipsters for today's race, having recently finished strong in a Class 4 event and showing good form despite a couple of near misses. With a suitable ground condition and an optimal distance of 2m 4f 88yds, Moab is expected to perform well, especially given its favourable weight of 11st 4lb. The tipsters suggest placing a bet on Moab to win, as they believe it has a strong chance of success based on its recent performances and current conditions.
Most Popular Tip
Moab
Daily Racing
| Selection | Win Tips | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| • | Moab | 14 / 42 | 34% |
| • | Karton Plein | 11 / 42 | 26% |
| • | Nazare | 6 / 42 | 14% |
| • | Other | 11 / 42 | 26% |
Best Tipster’s Tip
Moab
Daily Racing
57% strike rate on Horse Racing in the last week
WIN @
Ran a good 2nd of 15 on 22nd January in a same-as-today Class 4, being all out at the finish of 2m 4f 145yds on soft going with a rating of 105. Then had a spin on Southwell’s AW in February before again finishing 2nd in a Class 4 hurdle over a maybe-too-short 2m 161yds on good to soft with a rating of 108. Better 'good' ground today will suit back up in trip to 2m 4f 88yds, with a rating of 107, looking nicely weighted with 11st 4lb. Turned out again quickly, as that last run was only 18 days ago.
- Annual Profit
- 46
- Annual Strike Rate
- 31 %
- 30 Days Profit
- 10
- 7 Days Profit
- -5
-
Daily Racing
Hide Selections
9 Moab
- Form: -25022
- 6yo 11st 4lb
- T: Henrietta C Knight
- J: Paul O'Brien
14 / 43 Win Tips33%5 comments6 / 48 EW Tips13%6 / 13 NAPs46%57% strike rate on Horse Racing in the last week
WIN @
Ran a good 2nd of 15 on 22nd January in a same-as-today Class 4, being all out at the finish of 2m 4f 145yds on soft going with a rating of 105. Then had a spin on Southwell’s AW in February before again finishing 2nd in a Class 4 hurdle over a maybe-too-short 2m 161yds on good to soft with a rating of 108. Better 'good' ground today will suit back up in trip to 2m 4f 88yds, with a rating of 107, looking nicely weighted with 11st 4lb. Turned out again quickly, as that last run was only 18 days ago.
- Annual Profit
- 46
- Annual Strike Rate
- 31 %
- 30 Days Profit
- 10
- 7 Days Profit
- -5
11 Karton Plein
- Form: 1-62P3
- 6yo 11st 2lb
- T: Olly Murphy
- J: Sean Bowen
11 / 43 Win Tips26%2 experts
4 comments4 / 48 EW Tips8%1 / 13 NAPs8%+2182 profit on Horse Racing in the last 6 months
WIN @
Karton Plein won a C4 maiden hurdle here last year but has been pants since starting in handicaps. The latest, in Jan, was a decent third. With another drop of 2 lbs today, he might be ready.
- Annual Profit
- 1776
- Annual Strike Rate
- 19 %
- 30 Days Profit
- 824
- 7 Days Profit
- 303
7 Codetalker
- Form: 426133
- 6yo 11st 8lb
- T: Stuart Edmunds
- J: Charlie Hammond
2 / 43 Win Tips5%4 / 48 EW Tips8%0 / 13 NAPs0%
4 Nazare
- Form: -411F9
- 6yo 11st 9lb
- T: James Owen
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
6 / 43 Win Tips14%1 comment2 / 48 EW Tips4%1 / 13 NAPs8%Won on Melton Mossy @9.00 Yesterday
EW @
A reproduction of the form he showed when winning over the course and distance rated 109 (102 today) would put Nazare into contention here. He will need to put a couple of moderate runs behind him but, after a break and with cheekpieces going on, that's not impossible.
- Annual Profit
- -982
- Annual Strike Rate
- 24 %
- 30 Days Profit
- -89
- 7 Days Profit
- -94
6 Sutherland
- Form: 6-5203
- 6yo 11st 8lb
- T: T Ellis
- J: Finn Lambert
3 / 43 Win Tips7%4 comments6 / 48 EW Tips13%1 / 13 NAPs8%+161 profit on Horse Racing in the last 6 months
WIN @
Sutherland looks worth a nibble here at 15/2. He has course form and has shown some recent improvement now that he is in handicap company. Finn Lambert taking off 3 lbs will help lighten the load.
- Annual Profit
- 161
- Annual Strike Rate
- 20 %
- 30 Days Profit
- -341
- 7 Days Profit
- -33
10 Purple Owl
- Form: 5-2530
- 6yo 11st 3lb
- T: David Pipe
- J: Jack Tudor
3 / 43 Win Tips7%1 expert
3 comments4 / 48 EW Tips8%1 / 13 NAPs8%+2266 profit on Horse Racing in the last year
EW @
This horse's best run was arguably a 2nd on good ground behind a very useful horse in a novice hurdle, and this better ground could be the key here. His win in a 3-mile PTP (along with other lines of form) would strongly suggest that 2½ miles on good ground could be the ideal scenario. The other four finishers in that PTP have all won since, and the horse has had a wind op since his last run, which could also prove to be a positive.
1 member found this comment useful.
- Annual Profit
- 2266
- Annual Strike Rate
- 23 %
- 30 Days Profit
- 242
- 7 Days Profit
- 60
2 Menaggio
- Form: -P7P44
- 7yo 11st 12lb
- T: Billy Aprahamian
- J: Gavin Sheehan
1 / 43 Win Tips2%0 / 48 EW Tips0%0 / 13 NAPs0%
1 Fine Casting
- Form: 4-21P4
- 10yo 12st 0lb
- T: Ben Pauling
- J: Elliott England
2 / 43 Win Tips5%1 expert
6 comments12 / 48 EW Tips25%3 / 13 NAPs23%+867 profit on Horse Racing in the last 3 months
EW @
With four places on offer, I like the chances of this one being involved. Generally reliable and on what appears to be a good mark for a return to hurdling. Also drops slightly in grade.
- Annual Profit
- 857
- Annual Strike Rate
- 35 %
- 30 Days Profit
- 11
- 7 Days Profit
- -60
8 Heard That
- Form: 1-PP36
- 7yo 11st 4lb
- T: Olly Murphy
- J: Aidan Weaver
0 / 43 Win Tips0%1 / 48 EW Tips2%0 / 13 NAPs0%
3 Isle Of Sark
- Form: 612438
- 8yo 11st 11lb
- T: Micky Hammond
- J: Joshua Thompson
0 / 43 Win Tips0%2 experts
3 comments7 / 48 EW Tips15%0 / 13 NAPs0%+3337 profit on Horse Racing in the last year
EW @
Don't be deterred by the steep odds. This 8-year-old is a standout performer who has excelled in both Flat and jumps racing. He boasts four victories from 49 starts, along with an impressive 20 podium finishes. After a rough patch with his last yard, he recently raced on the flat at this venue in February, where he finished eighth with a performance his trainer called encouraging. With a 5 lb claimer in the saddle, he might be worth considering for an each-way bet as he returns to jumps on turf.
- Annual Profit
- 3337
- Annual Strike Rate
- 27 %
- 30 Days Profit
- 312
- 7 Days Profit
- 128
5 Summergrounds
- Form: -52225
- 10yo 11st 9lb
- T: Nicky Richards
- J: Danny McMenamin
1 / 43 Win Tips2%2 / 48 EW Tips4%0 / 13 NAPs0%
Experts are OLBG tipsters with high strike rates, current month or 6 month profitability for a particular sport.
Value Rating is based on comparing the odds of a selection to the theoretical probability of winning based on the percentage of tips for it.
Profits calculated to a 10 point stake.