4:21 Southwell Tips

A beaten favourite over course and distance last time out when ridden by apprentice Ashley Lewis. Cieren Fallon takes over in the saddle and looks a positive booking, having won twice in three rides on this 6-year-old.

The use of this jockey for the horse's last two runs (which were both wins) looks to have been the key to this horse. The way he's been finishing his races also suggests that this step up in trip could suit him. I'd have this race as a match between this one and the favourite, but the key for me is that I think he'll be even better at this trip and can complete the hat-trick.

Qazaq, after making a very promising start to his career, has fallen a long way in a short space of time. But at some point he will find his form again, and off today's mark and at the price I'm willing to take the chance.

Lerwick Handicap mark has been gradually falling as his trainer has been a bit out of form, but he had a winner yesterday. Perhaps his horses will be in the winning enclosure more in the coming weeks, and the current price of 10/1 looks attractive.

Camera Shy made a winning debut at Newmarket as a juvenile, and despite some good runs in defeat, hasn't really built on that debut win. His handicap mark has dropped from an initial high of 79, now down to a low of 62. Going back up to 7f, and as long as he doesn't run too keenly, he might just land a second success.

This one is a bit risky, but I think the current odds are too generous. He was restless in the stalls and blew the start last time out, but won over course and distance before that. Another negative is the draw, but this horse previously won a C5 race here from a wide draw in December 2024. Capable on his day and worth chancing each way.

The front two in the market take up nearly 70% share, and there might be some value elsewhere. Cargin Bhui is unproven at 7 furlongs. A each-way chance is given to Scott Dixon's Mereside Madness, who has previously run well fresh (won in February 2025 after a break). He is proven at the distance and is on a winning mark. This is a drop in grade, and the application of a tongue strap may yield improvement too. Daniel Muscutt rides well at this track, and Camera Shy might trouble the judge after hinting at better last time.

A repeat of his Kempton second back in August in the class and over this trip would make him competitive here. No joy yet for this stable, but he's 4 lb lower now and this stable is always capable of a shock.