2:45 Ayr Tips

Most of these are very moderate and pretty much fully exposed. The exception is Carmel Valley, a three-year-old filly with not many miles on the clock. She came to Katie Scott from Ireland earlier in the season and has raced three times at Ayr since joining her new yard. She has definitely shown promise in her last two races, the most recent against fairly reliable yardsticks. She drops a pound in the ratings following that run, and with today's race at a lower level, she could be the one. Jason Hart rode her last time, and that experience will help him know how to get any improvement from her.

Hasn't won for more than two years but was placed four times last year in July / August off 79 & 80 handicap mark is down to only 62 today. His four career wins have been three times at todays seven and once over a mile, his last six runs have all been over 6 furlongs.

Novak's form is fairly decent, and his handicap mark is easing. The drop back into a Class 6 is a positive for me. He finished fourth of nine at Ayr over 1 mile on his latest start, beaten about 4 lengths after being hampered, but is now 2 lb lower and nearing his last winning mark also.

Black Rock Beauty looked good on the initial two runs this season. The first run and first win in a handicap was a Class 6 at Redcar over today's trip of 7 furlongs. The following run was also good at Doncaster with a 4 lb rise in the weights. The last run can be ignored, and you can forgive any horse a bad run at Chester. The stable has picked up a bit lately after being out of sorts, and the stable jockey reunites today.

Keep me stable comes here only a few days after finishing a good second at Musselburgh, has a 5lb claimer taking the ride, and his trainer Linda Perratt is in excellent form. He also won three straight last summer, so there is evidence he can put races together when in form.

He does not appear to be a likely winner, but a successful refitting of his visor could change the game. His drop to Class 6 and an OR of 59 makes him a threat, so place chances remain at 22/1.

A speculative play on STONEYWELL here just because the handicap keeps dropping and he probably finds his level at some point. Finished 7th at Chepstow the run before last but wasn't beaten by far and is far pounds ligher in the weights and in a lower grade now. The mini break might have done him some good also.