Week 3 NFL Preview - Headlines and Best Matchups, Picks & Betting Odds

Each week Mike Calabrese will be offering his view on the best NFL picks week by week of the headline and some under-the-radar matchups. You will also find his College Football Preview too.

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Headliners

Buffalo Bills-6 @ Miami Dolphins (52.5)

1p ET on CBS

The Bills are dominating right now. They are the first team since 2002 to start a season 2-0 with wins against teams that won 12 or more games the previous season. Not only did they dispatch those playoff teams, they crushed them by a combined score of 72-17. That +55 point differential out of the gate against a pair of former playoff teams is an NFL record. And just for good measure, Josh Allen has settled in as the odds-on favorite to win league MVP. 

Toss in the fact that Buffalo ran roughshod over Miami last season in its two wins (61-11 aggregate) and its hard to envision a close game on South Beach. Right? 

Well, the Fins’ new-look offense under Mike McDaniel is already turning heads. Through two weeks the Dolphins are second in total offense, fourth in scoring, and lead the league in passing yards per game. Tua’s career game against the Ravens last week (469 yards, 6 TDs) demonstrates just how good their aerial attack can be with him at the helm. It doesn’t hurt that he’s throwing to the fastest wideout tandem in the NFL according to Next Gen Stats (Hill, Waddle). 

Defensively is where these two teams diverge. The Bills are pairing a dynamic offense with a defense that is first or second in the league in the following metrics:

• Points Per Game (8.5)
• Rushing Defense (66 yards)
• Sack Rate (12.16%)
• Interception Rate (7.69%)
• Opp Yards Per Pass (4.6)

This put the Bills in the running to field the number one offense and defense in the same season, a feat only accomplished by San Diego (2010) and Green Bay (1996) in the modern era. 

Betting Angle:

There’s no denying the Bills are on fire right now and that Miami’s defense seems ill-equipped to slow them down. But in the NFL, undefeated home dogs of close to a touchdown are both rare and lucrative. Dating back to 2006, only 10 games have been played in the NFL in which an undefeated home dog has received six or more points. The home team is 7-3 ATS in this instances. If this spread crosses over the key number of seven, I would play Miami, otherwise it’s worth laying the big ML number with Buffalo in the -235 to -265 range. 

Baltimore Ravens-3 @ New England Patriots (43.5)

1p ET on CBS

Baltimore was cruising towards a 2-0 start behind a dominant performance from Lamar Jackson when the roof fell in on them. Tua Tagovailoa threw six touchdowns passes, helping Miami erase a sizable second half deficit. The loss was deflating, but a veteran team with a Super Bowl-winning coach can bounce back, especially with Marcus Peters expected back soon and Marlon Humphrey easing back into form. As it stands today, however, this is the worst pass defense in the NFL.

The question is, can Mac Jones take advantage of a leaky Baltimore secondary? Jones has underwhelmed in his two starts this season, posting a QBR of 32.0 (26th). The good news is that he was able to push the ball down field to Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers against the Steelers. Given the Steelers secondary and pass rush, his stat line of 252-TD was encouraging enough to believe he can carve up the Ravens if given the opportunity. 

The difficult part of this handicap is predicting how Bill Belichick wants to play this game. Yes, the Patriots could score 30+ points if they aggressively attack Baltitmore downfield, but getting into a shootout isn’t Belichick’s M.O. It seems more likely that he’ll try to play keep away, leaving Lamar Jackson on the bench for long stretches of time. The Ravens have left their defense on the field way too long in 2022, checking in at 28th out of 32 teams in terms of time of possession. Given Jackson’s otherworldly 9.0 yards per attempt, I believe the Patriots’ staff will work to limit his opportunities in this one.

Betting Angle:

It’s a bad idea to bet against Bill Belichick at home. In his 23 years as the Patriots head coach, Belichick is 10-8 SU and 13-5 ATS as a home underdog. It’s certainly not a sexy choice to side with Mac Jones over Lamar Jackson, especially given Jackson’s up-and-down nature. Jackson is 7-3 ATS the week after scoring 35 points or more in his five-year NFL career. I’ll still back Patriots and the ninth-best pass defense in the NFL. 

Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers-2 (42)

4:25p ET on FOX

Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur successfully calmed the nerves of Packers Nation with a humdrum blowout of Chicago on Sunday Night Football. The Pack played keep-away from Justin Fields, eating up over 60% of the clock, while averaging 6.3 yards per play. Rodgers distributed the ball to eight different receivers and the running game chipped in 203 yards on the ground. In a word, the Green Bay offense was back. 

Tampa Bay got a win in New Orleans, but it came at a high cost. Mike Evans was suspended for his role in a skirmish, leaving the Bucs rather shorthanded at wide receiver. According to ESPN’s Field Yates this could be the TB wide receiver room this week:

• Mike Evans: suspended
• Chris Godwin: missed Week 2 (hamstring) 
• Julio Jones: missed Week 2 (knee)
• Russell Gage
• Breshad Perriman
• Scotty Miller

If the Bucs trot out this lineup, Green Bay could be in for a great afternoon. Against a similarly outgunned skill position group on Sunday night, the Pack held the Bears to just 70 yards through the air. Toss in Tampa’s issues along the offensive line and you could envision Brady taking a season-high in hits. That’s the exact recipe for upsetting Brady. 

Betting Angle:

This spread is predicated on Brady’s performance ATS when returning home from a road trip. In his two decades as a starting quarterback, TB12 is 28-12-1 ATS playing at home coming off two or more consecutive road games. I’m going to buck the trend and back a healthy and more complete Packers team that has the secondary to keep the Bucs below 20 points in this game. The key here will be the Packers anemic pass rush (31st in win rate). A coverage sack or two would go a long way in turning around their pass-rush fortunes and if GB can race out to an early lead and dictate early down passing situations, I believe they’ll tee off on Brady.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants-1.5 (39.5) (Monday Night Football)

8:30 ET on ABC

The Giants haven’t started a season 2-0 since 2016 and they’re doing it by mucking up games. Football Outsiders has graded them out with a -9.5% DVOA, which in laymen’s terms means they’re lucky to have one win let alone two. But there is a method to the Giants’ madness through two weeks. They’re the sixth-most run centric team in the league and they’re not allowing teams to convert on 3rd downs (21.7%, 1st). This has resulted in 11 punts for the Giants and 11 punts for their opponents. Field position battles and a reliance on Graham Gano, who is perfect on extra points and field goals (2x 50+ yarders) through two weeks, have carried them through. 

Dallas is also thrilled to be playing an ugly brand of football, as long as they win. After losing Dak Prescott to injury, the Cowboys were able to bully Cincinnati at home in Week 2, capturing their first win of the season. That 20-17 win was fueled by efficient play. The Cowboys turned the ball over just once, surrendered only one sack on Cooper Rush and held Cincinnati without a pass play of 20+ yards. That “play within yourself” formula will be on full display in East Rutherford on Monday night. 

The Giants’ mercurial starting quarterback, Daniel Jones, has been trending up as of late. Jones has covered six of his past seven games, including winning and covering four consecutive home games. But if we’re being honest the only thing to like about the G-Men’s offense is No. 26. Saquon Barkley’s 282 all-purpose yards through two games has been enough to power New York’s attack and he’ll need to be special against a quality Dallas defense if they hope to score 20+ in this one.

Betting Angle:

This is one of the lowest totals for a Monday Night Football game in the past ten years. In fact, this will be the second-lowest total for a MNF game that isn’t impacted by high wind, torrential rain or snow since 2010. With that being said, I like the under and the Giants to steal another low-scoring victory.

Under-The-Radar

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Chargers-7 (47.5)

4:05 ET on CBS

The Chargers got a mini-bye coming out of their Thursday night game against Kansas City and it was needed. Justin Herbert, the Bolts star quarterback, has fractured rib cartilage and will likely be suited up with extra padding to protect his tender torso. Unfortunately, for the Chargers, handing the ball to Austin Ekeler 30 times in a blowout isn’t on the table. The Jags field the league’s third-best run defense and are top 10 in havoc, harrassing quarterbacks (11 hits on Matt Ryan) and breaking up passes left and right (11 PDs vs. Indianapolis).  Suffice to say, this is a physical and aggressive Jacksonville defense that will hit Herbert early and often. 

Whether the Jags and Trevor Lawrence can score enough to make this a viable play plus the points is another question altogether. Lawrence has been awful in his short career on the road. Lawrence is winless straight up in nine opportunities on the road and a ghastly 2-7 ATS away from home in his NFL career. But early returns here in 2022 point to improvement from Lawrence and Jags passing attack. He helped the Jags capture a fourth quarter lead before fading against Washington in the opener and he played his best game as a pro last week against Indianapolis in a 24-0 rout. 

Betting Angle:

I believe that the combination of a healthy Herbert and a salty Charger defense is good enough to vie for the AFC Title. But on Sunday, with Herbert at less than 100% this is a game to survive in, not dominate. With that in mind, I’ll be on the under as the Chargers try to get the ball out of Herbert’s hands quickly. Expect shorter passes, and more from the running game when the Chargers have the ball. As for Jacksonville, facing an elite Charger pass rush should translate to lots of punts. I would play this down to 45.5.

Los Angeles Rams-3.5 @ Arizona Cardinals (48.5)

4:25p ET on FOX

Sean McVay is going to be sad to see Kliff Kingsbury go. The defending Super Bowl champion head coach is 10-1 straight up and 9-1-1 against the spread when facing Kingsbury’s Cardinals. That’s the most profitable head-to-head record for an intradivisonal coaching matchup in the NFL today. 

On the field, both teams feel pretty flawed despite matching 1-1 records. The Rams have been the Cooper Kupp show, through and through. Kupp has 236 of the Rams 580 total yards through two weeks. Arizona, hasn’t been quite as dependent on one player, but Kyler Murray did pull them out of the fire last week with a highlight reel run and two-point conversion pass at the very end of the fourth quarter to extend the game. Both defenses have major issues. Arizona is 28th in total defense, and the Rams have surrendered 58 points through two weeks. 

The key here is to explore how the final box scores in Week 2 influenced this spread. The Rams stormed out to a 28-3 lead over Atlanta, before allowing the Falcons to go on a 24-3 run to end the game. The Cardinals meanwhile needed a 21-3 blitz of their own, including a touchdown and two-point conversion on the final play of the game to force OT. They were also gifted a scoop and score to win the game in overtime. If both games played out as predicted, a double-digit Rams victory and a Cardinal loss, this game would be closer to -7 than -3. 

Betting Angle:

I’ll take advantage of the overreactions to both outcomes and grab a Rams roster that is considerably more talented on both sides of the ball. The Arizona secondary should struggle to slow Kupp and unless Murray excels in broken-play situations, both he and the undermanned Cardinals offense will be held in check. I would play this up to Rams-5.5.

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