College Football Week 2 Viewers Guide - Betting Picks and Latest News

Headliners

#1 Alabama-20 @ Texas (65.5)

12p ET on FOX

Two blue bloods collide down on the 40 Acres in Austin, Texas, on Saturday. Alabama, the premier college football team of the past fifteen years, against a perennial underachiever led by a former Nick Saban lieutenant. On paper this doesn’t seem to be a fair fight, but the Longhorns has pulled a few rabbits out of their hat at DKR Texas Memorial Stadium in recent years. 

Back in 2016, Texas upset #10 Notre Dame at home, besting the Fightin’ Irish 50-47 in double overtime. In 2018, they strung together three home wins over Top-25 competition and nearly upset the eventual national champions (LSU) in Week 2 of the 2019 season. Suffice to say, ranked teams should be on upset alert when they arrive in the Austin city limits. 

Alabama, meanwhile, has beaten the breaks off of Power Five competition in the non-conference under Nick Saban. Since 2010, Alabama has faced 11 P5 opponents in non-conference play. Seven of their 11 opponents were ranked in the AP Top 25. Saban’s teams are 11-0 in those games by an average score of 37-11. 

So which trend will persist: Texas’ home field advantage against ranked foes or Alabama’s dominance against high-profile non-conference opponents? If you can’t zero in on a side, backing Alabama first half-11.5 points wouldn’t be a bad idea. Alabama is 15-5 ATS in the first half of their last 20 contests.

Betting Angle:

Quinn Ewers and Bijan Robinson are a rare five-star QB/RB combination, Texas’ first since 2004 when Cedric Benson teamed up with Vince Young. The result that season was an 11-win season a top-five finish in the AP Poll. That bodes well for the future of UT football. Here in the present, UT would need a small miracle to beat Alabama outright. But Nick Saban has a history of taking his foot off the accelerator when facing former assistants and he seized multiple opportunities this offseason to laud the work Steve Sarkisian (UT HC) did for him while at Alabama. I believe that will leave a backdoor cover on the table in this game and UT will take advantage. 

#24 Tennessee-6.5 @ #17 Pittsburgh (66.5)

3:30p ET on ABC

Pitt is coming off an emotional and exhausting victory in the Backyard Brawl. Pitt and West Virginia played for the first time in 11 years and a late pick-six by the Panthers helped them snag a victory over their border rivals. This qualifies this game against Tennessee as a “letdown” spot. 

Tennessee, meanwhile, has major bowl game aspirations and will need to win and win convincingly to stay on track. This explains why the Vols are a sizeable road favorite despite the fact that Pitt is higher-rated in the AP Poll. 

The other explanation is UT’s dynamic offense. Last season, the Vols finished seventh in scoring and ninth in total offense. Given their performance in Week 1 against Ball State (59-10) it appears they may be even better in 2022. Ten different receivers caught passes and nine different players rushed the football as UT racked up 569 yards of total offense. Ball State was powerless to stop them and a Pitt defense that just surrendered 404 yards and 31 points to WVU may be next in line to get embarrassed. 

The real game-within-the-game to keep an eye on will be WVU’s offense against an improved UT defense. Last season, Tennessee regularly gave up explosive plays (20+ yards, 85th) and they were downright dreadful against the pass (273.2 ypg, 122nd). Against Ball State, a MAC team with a strong receiving corps, the Vols generated two interceptions while holding the BSU QB to a QBR of just 31.2 (out of 100). That’s a promising sign heading into this critical non-conference showdown. 

Betting Angle:

Pitt got off to a slow start in Week 1, something they can’t afford to do against the potent UT attack. Dating back to last season, UT has averaged 14 points per game in the first quarter. Those hot starts have become a calling card of head coach Josh Heupel and offensive coordinator Alex Golesh. I’ll back another hot start and look to play Tennessee-3.5 in the first half against Pitt. 

#20 Kentucky @ #12 Florida-5.5 (52.5)

7p ET on ESPN

This series has been dominated by Florida over the years. From 1987 through 2017, the Gators reeled off 31 straight victories. In the past four years, things have gotten considerably more competitive with the Wildcats and Gators splitting the four contests. 

Each team got wins in Week 1, but those victories were not created equal. Kentucky had some issues on their offensive line, resulting in four sacks for the Miami (OH) Redhawks. Additionally, the UK running game couldn’t get out of neutral, tallying just 50 yards on 1.9 yards per carry. Chris Rodriguez Jr., UK’s star halfback, remains suspended and his absence is a major concern in this game at The Swamp. 

Florida, on the other hand, notched one of the most impressive wins of Week 1, knocking off seventh-ranked Utah in a thriller. The Gators’ bend-but-don’t-break defense stiffened in the Red Zone and that proved to be the difference. A last minute interception by Amari Burney sealed the victory, ensuring that UF wouldn’t waste a tremendous performance from rising star Anthony Richardson. 

Speaking of Richardson, the Gators’ QB1 rated as one of the nation’s best running quarterbacks according to Pro Football Focus. An excerpt from PFF’s review of Richardson’s night against Utah:

“Against a stingy Utes defense, he led the Gators to victory and earned a very respectable 79.6 grade. He rushed for 104 yards and three touchdowns on just 12 attempts and showed why he might have the best tools in the country.”

Betting Angle:

Billy Napier (UF’s HC) loves to control games on the ground. He did just that on Saturday against Utah and I’m banking on him sticking to the script here as well. The last four UK-UF games have gone under this number of 52.5 and I see that trend continuing with each offense playing things conservatively in a close game. I would play this total all the way down to 50.

#9 Baylor @ #21 BYU-4 (53.5)

10:15p ET on ESPN

The media loved Baylor in the preseason, selecting them to win the conference back in July. Vegas hasn’t been as bullish on the boys from Waco. Oddsmakers listed Baylor as the fourth-best team in the Big XII and they have once again listed them as an underdog in this spot. 

My personal power rankings have this game as a pick ‘em, but I believe both the public and oddsmakers have been overly influenced by BYU’s blowout win last week. Yes, the Cougars thoroughly thrashed USF in Tampa, but let’s keep in mind this is the same South Florida team that is 3-19 under head coach Jeff Scott.

Baylor opened their season at Albany and it was business as usual for Dave Aranda. The Bears’ defense allowed fewer than three yards per carry and just three points overall (punt return TD). But the big story was Blake Shapen. The sophomore ran off Gerry Bohanon in the offseason and rewarded his coaching staff’s faith with a flawless performance in Week 1. Shapen ended the night 17-for-20 for 214 yards, a pair of scores and a QBR of 90. 

Brigham Young hosted a pair of Top-25 opponents in Provo last year, beating both (Utah, Arizona State). But it is worthy noting the Cougars haven’t knocked off a Top-10 opponent at home since 1990 when Ty Detmer helped them upset number-one ranked Miami (FL). 

Betting Angle:

It’s rare to grab a defending conference champion from a Power Five conference as a true underdog, but that is what is available on Saturday Night. I’ll be backing Baylor on the moneyline at +135 and hitching my wagon to their RVO (Reliably Violent Offense) which racked up close to 600 yards in their opener.

Under-The-Radar

South Carolina @ #16 Arkansas-8.5 (53)

12p ET on ESPN

There’s an acronym in sports gambling KYP, which stands for “Know Your Personnel.” In this case, it’s critical that you scour the injury reports because if Arkansas is without nickel cornerback Myles Slusher and safety Jalen Catalon, this game tips in South Carolina’s favor considerably. 

If either or both of them were cleared to play, then this point spread would favor the home team. 

As for the personnel that will be suiting up on Saturday, Arkansas’ quarterback KJ Jefferson is coming off of a brilliant season debut. The hefty signal caller accounted for 285 total yards and four touchdowns against a highly-regarded Cincinnati defense. 

South Carolina’s quarterback, on the other hand, struggled against Georgia State. Spencer Rattler, a highly touted transfer QB from Oklahoma, averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt and had just one touchdown against two interceptions. If he is forced to throw into a Hogs’ secondary that features both Slusher and Catalon, it could be a long afternoon for the Gamecocks.

Betting Angle:

If both of the aforementioned defensive backs start for Arkansas, I’ll be playing the Razorbacks and laying the eight-and-a-half points. If neither suit up, over 53 begins to look like the more suitable play. DonBest.com is the best resource to check for injury news before placing a bet here. 

#25 Houston @ Texas Tech-3 (63)

4p ET on FS1

Both quarterbacks in this game are coming off of impressive Week 1s. Houston’s Clayton Tune helped the Cougars avoid an upset at the hands of UTSA, chipping in 257 total yards and four total touchdowns. Texas Tech’s Donovan Smith entered his game in relief of injured starter Tyler Shough. Smith would finish 14-for-16 for 221 yards and four passing touchdowns. 

The most fascinating element to watch in this game will be Doug Belk (Houston DC) vs. Zach Kittley (TTU OC). Both are considered rising stars in the coaching ranks and this one-on-one battle will likely determine the winner in Lubbock on Saturday evening. 

One final note, Dana Holgorsen (UH HC) has been a profitable play when installed as a road underdog, covering five of eight contests with three outright wins since arriving in Houston. 

Betting Angle:

I anticipate a high-scoring game with Houston pulling away late. The reason for my confidence resides in Texas Techs’ defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter. He has a knack for turning around defenses, just not in year one. In his last two stops, during his first season calling plays on defense, his pass defenses have finished 113th and 89th. TTU was 119th last season against the pass, which generated a lot of high-scoring affairs. Last week, they gave up five 20+ yard passing plays to Murray State, including two of over 50+ yards. Bank on more shaky defense from Texas Tech.