College Football Week 4 Viewers Guide - Betting Picks and Latest News

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Week 4 College football preview is ready to go with all of Mike Calabrese's best picks for you to consider single wagers or parlays. Ensure you are using the best betting site for college football when playing these picks and select from the best betting sites in your state for college football.

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#5 Clemson-7 @ #21 Wake Forest (55.5)

12p ET on ABC

Last season, Wake Forest finished 7-1 in the ACC, appearing in the ACC championship game for the first time since 2006. Their lone loss came at Clemson, a convincing 48-27 victory for the Tigers. In 2019, the Demon Deacons raced out to a surprising 7-2 start before Clemson obliterated them them 52-3. It’s the same story over and over again for head coach Dave Clawsen: Wake gives their fans hope and Clemson brings them back to reality. This series has been so lopsided that Wake has only kept the final score within single digits once since 2009. 

All of those blowouts notwithstanding, Clemson has been installed as a one-possession favorite in Winston-Salem. The reason is simple -- DJ Uiagalelei. Clemson’s embattled starting quarterback has been average this season after a disastrous 2021. But I believe that oddsmakers and the public are overstating his flaws without acknowledging his upside. In three starts this season, a slimed-down “Big Cinco” has accounted for six total touchdowns against just one turnover while chipping in 117 yards on the ground. They’ve run the ball well with Uiagalelei at the helm and committed few penalties. It may not seem like a ringing endorsement but when you pair stable, above average offense (44.5 ppg) with the Clemson defense you can win and cover numbers regularly.

Bryan Bresee, Clemson’s best defensive player, is set to return to the field after taking a leave of absence in the wake of his sister’s death. The 15-year-old Ella Bresee lost her battled with brain cancer last week. Dabo Swinney has earned a reputation as a master motivator and a head coach that connects with his players. Given his track record and the commentary from Bresee’s teammates, I believe we’ll be seeing a special performance from the nation’s best defense on Saturday as they reunite with their leader. 

Betting Angle:

With a broken offense last season, Clemson dominated Wake Forest on the ground, racking up 333 rusing yards and four scores. Defensively, it was even scarier. The Tigers spent the entire game in the Wake backfield, sacking Hartman seven times. Wake was nearly upset last week by Liberty, allowing too much on the ground, while being unable to protect Hartman. This is all trending towards a Clemson blowout.

#20 Florida @ #11 Tennessee-10.5 (62.5)

3:30p ET on CBS

It’s been quite a long time since Tennessee has been saddled with high expectations, but here they are in a rivalry game with both the public and oddsmakers expecting a convincing victory at Neyland Stadium. 

Offensively, the Vols are unquestionably good. Ever since Hendon Hooker took over as UT’s QB1 last season, this offense has really popped, even when facing nationally-ranked competition. Since October of last year, Tennessee’s offense has averaged 44 points per game while facing five ranked opponents. Hooker, in particular, has been a virtuoso with the football. So far in 2022, he’s accounted for eight touchdowns, against zero turnovers with a QBR of 86.3 (12th). 

But covering a double-digit number against a hated rival is so no small task for any team. Florida has looked out-of-sorts offensively, but they should be able to run the ball effectively against a mediocre Tennessee run defense. If you were to flip through the national rankings, Tennessee appears in the top 25 in almost every run defense metric, but that belies the truth. The Vols dominated a pair of MAC doormats (Ball State, Akron) with both teams abandoning the run after the first quarter. When they did face a real running game, Pitt’s Izzy Abanikanda gouged them for 154 yards and a touchdown. 

Then there’s the Billy Napier factor. The Saban protégé has been an absolute assassin in the underdog role. Dating back to 2019, Napier is 8-2 ATS as an underdog with seven outright victories. The question in this game will be Anthony Richardson and if we see him deployed the way he was in the opener against Utah when he sparked an upset of the Utes (274 total yards, 3 rushing TDs). The last two week against Kentucky and South Florida he’s been wholly ineffective through the air.

Betting Angle:

This is one of the SEC’s best rivalries, really taking hold in the 1990s at the peak of Steve Spurrier’s power in Gainesville. His annual battles, both on the field and in front of the mic, with Peyton Manning elevated this series to must-watch TV. For all of the great Tennesee teams, the Vols have beaten Florida by more than ten points just once since 1993. That includes the years the Orange and White won the national title (‘98), and six SEC East division titles (‘97, ‘98, ‘01, ‘03, ‘04, ‘07). Given the series history and Napier’s success when catching points, I’ll gladly take the ten and the hook.  

#10 Arkansas vs. #23 Texas A&M-2 (48.5) (Arlington, TX)

7p ET on ESPN

When this number opened, I was surprised given A&M’s issues on offense. Two separate quarterbacks have started for Jimbo Fisher already this season (King, Johnson) and neither have found much success. If you remove their blowout victory of FCS Sam Houston State, the Aggies are 125th in total offense. Given their overall team talent, that statistic is truly unbelievable. Scoring just 31 points across the last two weeks, it’s hard to imagine an offensive breakthrough is right around the corner. 

Arkansas, meanwhile, is cooking offensively. KJ Jefferson is piloting one of the top offenses in the SEC, pouring in 37.7 ppg, with tremendous balance between the run and the pass. Jefferson is now being taken seriously as a Heisman contender with his odds plummeting from 150:1 preseason to 33:1 as of publication. Averaging nearly ten yards per attempt, while accounting for nine touchdowns, Jefferson also adds a red zone rushing element that makes this Hogs’ attack nearly unstoppable near the goal line. 

This game is being billed as a bounceback opportunity for A&M, given the injury issues facing the Arkansas defense. But it will take a quantum leap from either Haynes King or Max Johnson for the Aggies to score four touchdowns in this game. And defensively, despite holding their first three opponents to just 26 total points, the Aggies check in at 97th in PFF’s coverage rankings (62.6). That should mean a big day for Matt Landers and Jadon Haselwood, the Razorbacks’ leading receivers. 

Betting Angle:

Do you trust the super talented defense with a high-ceiling or the complete offense that is simply out-scoring everyone on their schedule? Why don’t we split the difference and assume that both offenses look good at Jerry World. Arkansas just allowed an FCS opponent to throw for 357 yards through the air, and Jimbo Fisher and his staff would be wise to avoid running into the nation’s sixth best run defense (68.3 ypg). Look for explosive plays through the air all night long in Arlington. I would play this over all the way up to 51.5.

#7 USC-6.5 @ Oregon State (71)

9:30p ET on Pac-12 Network

If this line seems suspiciously low, allow me to explain. Corvallis has been a house of horrors for the Trojans in the past fifteen years. In 2006, USC was ranked third nationally and poised to return to its third straight national title game before Oregon State upset them at Reser Stadium. Two years later, as the number one ranked team, USC fell again to Oregon State on the road. 

The 2010s were far less forgiving to the Beavers and most fans and pundits seemed to have forgetten what kind of magic seems to transpire during #Pac12AfterDark in Corvallis. Oddsmakers haven’t forgotten, which is why this spread continues to hover below the key number of seven. 

On the field, Oregon State’s slow rise back to relevance is right on schedule. A 16-51 straight up run finally gave way to a bowl berth last season and now the Beavs are off to a 3-0 start. And it’s not a cream puff 3-0 by any stretch of the imagination. The Beavers destroyed Boise State and upset Fresno State on the road before dropping 68 points on Montana State (4th ranked in the FCS). In other words, they couldn’t be playing any better coming into this football game.

USC, not to be outdone, has been arguably the most impressive offense in the entire country. Caleb Williams is now the Heisman co-favorite with Ohio State’s CJ Stroud, leading USC to top ten national rankings in the following areas:

Points Per Game (50.7, 4th)

Total Offense (520 ypg, 7th)

Interception Rate (0%, 1st)

Plays of 20+ yards (22, 7th)

Will the Reser magic be enough to slow Lincoln Riley’s Trojan attack or is this just a spread that is exaggerating the situational advantage?

Betting Angle:

If Oregon State had the kind of pass rush to bother Williams (103rd in sack rate), or the kind of explosive running game that could expose a soft USC run defense, I would be intrigued by the points in this one. But aside from a random fumble or two biting the Trojans, I think it’s a safe assumption that they score 40+ for the fourth game in a row. Defensively, if USC can get ahead and make Oregon State one-dimensional, a performance akin to their work against an elite Fresno passing attack is likely in store on Saturday night. I’ll lay the points with the national title contender.

Under-The-Radar

Maryland @ #4 Michigan-16.5 (66.5)

12p ET on FOX

A few years ago it would have been laughable for a Maryland-Michigan game to viewed as a quarterback showcase, but that’s exactly what we have at high noon on Saturday at the Big House. Taulia Tagovailoa is running Dan Enos’ system to a T, connecting on 77% of his passes. That consistency, mixed with an improved running game has produced the third-most explosive offense on a yards per play basis in the entire country (8.1). Saturday will be their most challenging test, by far, but you have to wonder how prepared Michigan is after playing the easiest opening schedule of any team in the country through three weeks.

In Ann Arbor, there is a strong belief that J.J. McCarthy can elevate this offense to new heights. Due to game flow circumstances, he hasn’t been asked to do much through two starts but he’ll need to at least pose a threat if they hope to blowout Maryland in the same way they did Colorado State, Hawai’i and UConn. McCarthy, much like Tagovailoa, has been ruthlessly efficient (88.2%), but he did show some slight jitters when facing pressure from the UConn defense. Maryland’s defense is worlds better than the Huskies, checking in 44th nationally in havoc. If they can prevent Michigan from pushing them around on the ground, there’s a chance this could be a competitive game in the second half. 

That “if” above is a big one given Michigan’s running game at present. The Wolverines are averaging six yards per carry, with the nation’s fourth highest success rate. And defensively, the one thing they do better than anyone in the Big Ten is stop the pass. Given that fact, and the history of Tagovailoa falling off a cliff statistically after a big non-conference performance, it’s safe to say that Maryland is up against it on Saturday. 

Betting Angle:

This is a showcase game for the Michigan offense under McCarthy and Maryland has enough weaknesses on that side of the ball, name in the run game, for Michigan to put up north of forty points on the Terps. I would play this one all the way up to Michigan-20.5. 

Wisconsin @ #3 Ohio State-18.5 (57)

7:30 ET on ABC

After a sleepy start offensively, the banged up Buckeyes came alive against Toledo. The Rockets could have made a solid case before kickoff that they were the best defensive team in the MAC. Seventy-seven points and 763 yards later and it’s safe to say that Toledo has some work to do on defense. 

Ohio State, despite an injury to TreVeyon Henderson and a lingering hamstring issue with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, scored at will on Saturday. Stroud looked otherworldly for the first time in 2022 and the defense piled up nine tackles for loss. It was a complete performance against a solid bowl-quality football team. That’s bad news for the Badgers who have looked shaky thus far. 

In Wisconsin’s lone test against a legitimate opponent, Washington State upset the Badgers at Camp Randle Stadium in Madison. Yes, the defense is still capable of limiting teams through the air, but Graham Mertz is nothing more than a game manager who is confined to the pocket. That last element is why Wisconsin will be in trouble in this game. The only thing that Ohio State needs to tighten up on is opposing quarterbacks in the running game. Both Toledo’s Dequan Finn and Notre Dame’s Tyler Buchner found some success on the ground against Ohio State. Graham Mertz has just 14 career rushing yards. You won’t be confusing him for Jalen Hurts.

Even without Henderson suiting up, Ohio State will still be able to push the ball down the field against a quality Wisconsin secondary. If the Buckeyes can force Wisconsin to abandon the run early, this game could get out of hand. 

Betting Angle:

The last time the Badgers visited Ohio Stadium they got boat-raced 38-7. The supporting casts back in 2019 were very similar. Ohio State had a dynamic offense led by Justin Fields, J.K. Dobbins and Chris Olave and Wisconsin had a stout defense and an All-American level running back in Jonathan Taylor. Once Wisconsin had to abandon the run, Ohio State teed off on Jack Coan, sacking him five times. This game should follow a similar script. I would play Ohio State up to -20.5.

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