Week 2 NFL Preview - Headlines and Best Matchups, Picks & Betting Odds

Headliners

Each week Mike Calabrese will be offering his view on the best NFL picks week by week of the headline and some under-the-radar matchups. You will also find his College Football Preview too.

All wagers can be placed with licensed Sportsbooks in the US

Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens-3.5 (44.5)

1p ET on CBS

Both teams were favored in Week 1 and both teams took care of business, winning outright and against the spread. After a slow start in New York, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense came alive, scoring 14 points in the third quarter before calling off the dogs in the final fifteen minutes. The Ravens could be welcoming back J.K. Dobbins, which would only add to their pop offensively. 

The Dolphins exorcised some significant demons on Sunday afternoon, thrashing their longtime AFC East rival 20-7. Tua Tagovailoa took a few sacks, but for the most part was locked in, grading out with a 78.2 QBR. The hope was that the new coaching staff could unlock some big plays in the passing game and the receiving corps answered the bell in Week 1. Jaylen Waddle broke the game wide open in the second quarter with a 42-yard touchdown that was reminiscent of his time with Tua down at Alabama. Tyreek Hill also looked the part of an All-Pro receiver collecting eight passes for 94 yards. 

Defensively both teams smothered overwhelmed opponents. The Jets were working with journeyman quarterback in Joe Flacco and it showed. Despite a staggering 59 attempts, Flacco could only lead the Jets to the end zone once in garbage time. New England who is lacking perimeter weapons did an admirable job moving the football but a red zone interception and strip sack near their own goal line sealed their fate early against Miami. 

With both teams vying to be viewed as legitimate AFC title contenders, this game in Maryland could be decided between the Miami receiving corps and the Baltimore secondary. If Marcus Peters is once again a scratch for the Ravens (ACL), this game could devolve into a shootout.

Betting Angle:

There’s a reason why the public loses to the house on a regular basis and this game is a perfect example. John Harbaugh is an elite, Super Bowl-winning, head coach in the NFL. He continually assembles competitive rosters and gameplans with the best of them. Yet, as a home favorite, he’s sub-.500 in his career against the spread (46-51-2, 47.4%). If you can get the hook in this one, I would play the Dolphins for the second straight week and hope that the Miami front can corral Lamar Jackson and make him beat them from the pocket all game long. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers-2.5 @ New Orleans (44)

1p ET on FOX

It’s hard to say if the Buccaneers looked amazing or if the Cowboys looked horrible on Sunday night. Either way, the Bucs were able to prove their doubters wrong by protecting Brady with a patchwork offensive line. Brady took two sacks, but the running game got going behind Leonard Fournette. Defensively, it was a banner night for the boys in Pewter and Red. From a havoc perspective, TB generated seven tackles for loss, six pass deflections, and an interception. They also generated eight hits on the quarterback, knocking Dak Prescott out of the game.

Speaking of quarterback injuries, the Saints’ Jameis Winston is banged up headed into this game in Louisiana, complaining this week of a sore back. He was limited in practice on Wednesday, but according to NBCSportsEDGE, he is expected to start on Sunday. What we do know is that whether Winston starts or not, we will see Taysom Hill at quarterback at the Caesars Superdome. The Saints gadget player was on the field for 16 snaps against Atlanta, but he did his most damage out of a pseudo-Wildcat package. He finished with 81 yards on four carries and he caught one pass for two yards. 

Tampa Bay is going to be a difficult team to handicap for the remainder of the 2022 season. When they run the ball effectively, they can limit the hits on Brady and lean on a potentially elite defense. Holding Dak Prescott to a 15.3 QBR with a 48.3% completion rate is wildly impressive. They also bottled up Ezekiel Elliott, preventing him from surpassing a run of six yards all night. Where they may be in trouble is against teams with elite pass-rushing options on the edge who can score enough to force Brady into obvious passing situations. Last week, the New Orleans pass rush recorded just one quarterback hit and zero sacks. Not the formula for success against TB12.

Betting Angle:

I lean towards Tampa Bay, mainly because they have the scheme and personnel to shutdown the Saints ground attack and protect Brady against an average pass rush. But out of respect for the home field advantage in the Big Easy, I’m going to be playing the under. New Orelans scored just 10 points through three quarters last week and Tampa was far from a world-beater on Sunday Night Football as well. I would play this down to 42.5. 

New England Patriots-2 @ Pittsburgh Steelers (40.5)

1p ET on CBS

These offenses will be limping, both literally and figuratively, into the Steel City on Sunday afternoon. New England was humbled in its opener against Miami, mustering just 271 yards and seven points against the Fins. Pittsburgh was able to sneak out a win in Cincy, but it was without the services of Najee Harris down the stretch after he injured his foot. This explains why this game has the second-lowest total on the board in Week 2 across the entire NFL. 

It’s rare to see Pittsburgh catching points at home in Pennsylvania, but when they do it’s a profitable situation for bettors. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are a sterling 14-3-2 ATS (82.4%) as home underdogs since 2007. 

Injuries are set to play a major factor in this game with T.J. Watt (reigning NFL DPOY) out for Pittsburgh (pectoral), and Mac Jones a game-time decision due to a back injury. Najee Harris has indicated that he will play, but running backs and Lisfranc injuries don’t mix. I wouldn’t expect him to shoulder his usual workload given Mike Tomlin’s hesitance to confirm to the local media that his star tailback is completely healthy. 

Betting Angle:

Whether it’s Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe taking snaps for New England, this will be a game defined by field position and defense. The Steelers forced five turnovers in the first game and harassed Joe Burrow for sixty minutes and an overtime period. I don’t believe Belichick and is offensive staff will look to put an injured or rookie quarterback in harm's way all that often. That will translate to a lot of running from NE, which should only aid the under. I would play this all the way down to 38.5. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles-2 (50) (Monday Night Football)

8:30 ET on ABC

ESPN, CBS and NFL.com’s power rankings all list this as a top-10 battle on Monday Night and well they should. Both teams proved to be elite on one side of the ball on Sunday. The Birds addressed their top need this offseason (WR1) by acquiring A.J. Brown from the Tennesssee Titans. After a great preseason, Brown and Hurts dominated the Lions secondary on Sunday. Brown finished with a line of 10-155 with three first down receptions on third downs. Hurts led a dynamic Eagles offenses, closing his day with 333 total yards, a touchdown and zero turnovers. 

The Vikings offense was a one-man show, and what a show it was. Justin Jefferson caught nine passes for 184 yards and a pair of scores. But I was more impressed with the Vikings defense that essentially suffocated Aaron Rodgers and the Pack for four quarters. With the exception of a long bomb that was dropped by Christian Watson, the Packers couldn’t find chunk plays open downfield in the post-Davante era. Aaron Rodgers QBR of 16.1 was his lowest since Week 6 of the 2020 season. 

In a game with so much offensive firepower, let’s check in with Vegas on the historical trends of note. With Kirk Cousins as their QB1 (since 2018) the Vikings are just 9-13 ATS (40.9%) as a road underdog, the third-worst record against the closing number in the NFL in the past four-plus years. The Eagles, meanwhile, are 3-0 under head coach Nick Sirianni as a home favorite. 

Betting Angle:

The Eagles offensive line won’t completely neutralize a Vikings pass rush that graded out as the seventh-best unit in Week 1, generating pressure on 9.3% of dropbacks. But I do believe they’ll be light years better than a Packers front that was relying on three backups. What will that mean in this one? More points from the Birds. But it takes two to tango, and luckily Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook are healthy and raring to go against an Eagles defense that was average at best in Detroit last week. I’m banking on a shootout on national TV and would play this all the way up to 54. 

Under-The-Radar

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers-10 (41.5) (Sunday Night Football)

8:20 ET on NBC

This is the classic overreaction litmus test. Green Bay looked out of sorts against Minnesota in their opener, unable to protect Aaron Rodgers on offense and incapable of slowing Justin Jefferson defense. Chicago got an upset win in their home opener but played in a monsoon, which essentially made it impossible to throw the football in the second half. Should both box scores go in the trash? Perhaps. 

What we do know is that Aaron Rodgers, coming off a loss, is solid gold. Since 2008, Green Bay is 45-30-1 ATS (60%) following a loss. Layer in the fact that Rodgers is 21-7 ATS against the Bears in his career and a staggering 9-0 ATS against Chicago after a straight up loss. When he loses, he plays his best football, particularly against Chicago.

So can Chicago hang around or does this game have blowout written all over it? This could come down to dicey weather conditions for the second straight week. Rain is in the forecast up in Green Bay and if that takes the ball out of Aaron Rodgers hands, this game feels more like a one-possession affair as opposed to a blowout. 

Chicago doesn’t quite need an act of god to hang around, but they were lucky they got one in Week 1. Chicago managed just 26 yards on its first 20 plays from scrimmage on Sunday. According to the FOX broadcast, that was the worst start to a game offensive for Chicago in 31 years. Once Justin Fields got going he made a few big plays, namely his highlight reel scramble and touchdown toss to Dante Pettis. It’s his high-ceiling, on a per-play basis, that could leave the backdoor open for Chicago in the fourth quarter. 

Betting Angle:

Chicago showed zero signs of life offensively in the first half and the Green Bay defense, from a personnel standpoint, is too good to let up explosive plays to a below average Bears’ receiving corps. With that in mind, I’ll take Green Bay-6 in the first half to get back on track, eliminating any fears of a backdoor cover late in the fourth quarter.

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills-10 (48) (Monday Night Football)

7:15p ET on ESPN

These teams have some history, to say the least. Tennessee and their Music City Miracle back in 2000, sent Buffalo into a franchise-wide tailspin that nearly lasted two decades. Buffalo has finally recovered and is currently considered the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Tennessee had similar aspiration last season, beating Buffalo on Monday night football while steaming out to a 8-2 record in its first ten games. Tennessee would go 2-4 down the stretch, losing at home in the playoffs to Cincinnati. 

Even though we’re just one game into the 2022 season, this game has desperation-time vibes for the Titans. Losing at home to the hapless New York Giants, which included blowing a 13-0 halftime lead, has taken the air out of Tennessee’s balloon. Beyond the optics, surrendering 164 rushing yards to Saquon Barkley and 238 overall on the ground to the G-Men doens’t bode well with a well-rested and dynamic Buffalo offense playing in their home-opener. 

After years of frustration, Buffalo has arrived. They’re viewed and priced as an elite team. Dating back to last season they’ve been favored by double digits seven times, posting a 4-1-2 ATS (6-1 SU) record across those seven contests. And the additional rest in this spot only plays in the Bills’ favor. According to ESPN’s Mackenzie Kraemer “over the past 10 seasons (since 2013), teams that play the opening Thursday game are 15-3 outright and 12-6 ATS in Week 2.” 

Betting Angle:

This game is fairly priced at Buffalo-10, so I’ll be waiting in the wings for a live, in-game bet. If Tennessee is able to score first and this spread dips to Buffalo-7 or better, go ahead and jump all over that. As evidenced last week against LA, turnovers and sloppy play can stymie the Bills offense, but they’re simply too good to be held down for 60 minutes. Don’t be afraid of a slow start, in fact, take advantage of it.