Week 1 NFL Preview - Headlines and Best Matchups, Picks & Betting Odds

Headliners

Each week Mike Calabrese will be offering his view on the best NFL picks week by week of the headline and some under-the-radar matchups. You will also find his College Football Preview too.

All wagers can be placed with licensed Sportsbooks in the US

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins-3.5 (46)

1p ET on FOX

The Dolphins haven’t been favored over the Patriots since 2013 when they closed as a one-point home favorite in Week 15. But it should come as little surprise that the Dolphins are favored at home against a vulnerable Bill Belichick team. 

The Pats are a pedestrian 17-16 straight up in the post-Brady era with zero postseason victories. Their win total is set at 8.5, New England’s lowest since 2003. 

Sportsbooks think even less of the Pats in the AFC East race. The Patriots are +500 to win the AFC East, their longest odds to win the division since 2001, Tom Brady’s first season as the Patriots’ starter.

The Dolphins meanwhile are trending up. Their win total is set at nine and they’ve been installed as the 13th-best team in the league by The Athletic’s Power Rankings. There’s hope that Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins’ new head coach, can unlock the potential of one of the fastest offenses in the NFL. If he can work some magic with Tua Tagovailoa under center, this Dolphins team could give Buffalo a run for its money in the AFC East.

Betting Angle:

A lot of NFL bettors love to follow trends, which in turn, allows sportsbooks to recalibrate their odds to account for trend-bettors. Miami is the second-worst home favorite in the league dating all the way back to 2003. Its putrid against the spread record of 27-48-2 (33%) is almost hard to wrap your mind around. 

But the majority of those years the Fins suffered from anemic quarterback play, trotting out the likes of Josh Rose, Brock Osweiler, Matt Moore, Chad Henne, Cleo Lemon, Joey Harrington and Jay Fiedler, just to name a few.This season they have a real QB1 and a disruptive defense that finished fifth in the NFL in sacks. I’ll be playing Miami minus the points and will consider under if this total bubbles up closer to 48 before kickoff. 

Green Bay Packers-1.5 @ Minnesota Vikings (47)

4:25 ET on FOX

Aaron Rodgers is without his top target, All-Pro Davante Adams for the first time in 2013. His receiving corp was ranked 31st out of 32 teams by Pro Football Focus. This is bad news for a team that has relied on Rodgers and the passing attack to bail them out in years past. 

So why the love for Green Bay in a rebuilding season? Simply put, respect for the former MVP. Aaron Rodgers has opened up the season against an NFC North opponent six times in his career. In those six contests, Rodgers and the Pack are 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread. He seemingly always comes out hot against familiar foes. 

Minnesota, meanwhile, continues to search for game-changing quarterback play. If you combine Pro Football Focus, ESPN and the traditional Passer Rating metrics from last season, Kirk Cousins finished seventh in the NFL. By numbers alone that would put him on the verge of elite status. 

The reality is that Cousins continues to struggle against quality opponents when the Vikings need him most. Down the stretch last season, when facing playoff teams, Cousins tossed five touchdowns against four interceptions with an average QBR of 39.1. The Vikings went 1-2 in those critical games and missed the playoffs by one game. 

Betting Angle:

I think this will be a defensive battle given all the talent returning in the Green Bay secondary and the potential for receiving corps issues for the Pack. If this devolves into an old-school running affair both teams have star backs to feature in Aaron Jones and Dalvin Cook. Given the recent high-scoring history in this series, I would wait to see if this number climbs higher in the 49-point range before pulling the trigger.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers-2.5 @ Dallas Cowboys (51)

8:20p ET on NBC

It’s incredibly rare for the Cowboys to be installed as a home dog. This will be Dak Prescott’s first game as a home dog since 2019 when he led the Cowboys to an upset win over the Rams (DAL 44-21). Then there’s the primetime factor at play here. Prescott seemingly plays his best football when he’s on national TV. The Cowboys starting quarterback is 12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS at home in primetime during his six-year NFL career.

As of publication, the public has placed nearly 60% of all tickets and 60% of the handle on the Buccaneers. For all of that weight, this line has only moved by one point in the past month.

The game-within-the-game to monitor here will be the Buccaneers’ banged-up offensive line against the Cowboy's front seven. The Buccaneer's line was universally regarded as a top-five unit until injuries forced a pair of starters off the field. Tristan Wirfs will also be battling injuries at right tackle. 

Last season, The Cowboys finished with a pass rush rate of 42%, which ranked them 11th in the NFL. Micah Parsons wil be used all over the field on Sunday night, providing pressure off the edge as a traditional pass rusher. If they can pressure Brady early and often this could be a nice upset spot for America’s Team. 

Betting Angle:

Tom Brady is 16-4 in Week 1 of the NFL Season. It’s really hard to bet against that trend, but I’m going to do it because of the Cowboy's advantages in the trenches. Not only will Tampa Bay’s offensive line issues create havoc for Brady, but the Cowboy's offensive line is primed for its best season since 2016 when the ‘Boys went 13-3 and finished second in the NFL in rushing. 

I’ll be playing the Cowboys on the moneyline +120.

Denver Broncos-6.5 @ Seattle Seahawks (44.5) (Monday Night Football)

8:15p ET on ABC/ESPN

A tip of the cap to the schedule makers at NFL headquarters. Russell Wilson spent 10 years as the Seahakws starting quarterback, was traded to Denver in the offseason, and now gets to open the next chapter of his career right back in Seattle against his old team from Colorado. 

As of publication, the Seahawks (+6.5) have just 13% of the ticket count for this Monday Night Football showdown against the Broncos. If that seems low, it’s because it is…historically low. No NFL team has closed with fewer than 15% of tickets in its season opener since the Seahawks accomplished the feat back in 2010. As a short underdog back on September 12th, 2010, they crushed the 49ers 31-6 en route to an NFC West title. 

Another nugget when it comes to this game is the MNF home underdog angle. Dating back to 1998, Monday Night Football games taking place in Week 1 have seen underdogs produce tremendous results against the spread. The dogs have been barking to the tune of 27-12-1 (69.2%) ATS.

Betting Angle:

Seattle is a mess headed into this season with lousy quarterback play expected and a coach likely headed for retirement. Denver, meanwhile, could field a top-ten defense and have a promising backfield of Wilson and breakout candidate Javonte Williams at running back. But this is the NFL, where primetime games somehow find a way to remain competitive. With that in mind, I’ll avoid a backdoor cover predicament and simply play Denver on the ML at a reasonable price of -250. 

Under-The-Radar

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals-6.5 (44.5)

1 ET on CBS

The Bengals were the belle of the ball last season in the AFC. Cincy made the leap from last place in the AFC North to the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh took a major step backwards, going from 12-4 in 2020 to 9-7-1 in 2021. Will their slide continue?

Given what they have at quarterback, namely Mitch Trubisky, I’m inclined to say yes. Despite a promising win-loss record in Chicago (29-21), the former North Carolina Tar Heel struggled to elevate the Bears passing attack. His career 6.7 yards per attempt leave a lot to be desired. Of full-time NFL starters, that average places him in the 25-28 range out of 32. He couldn’t generate the big play and that’s what the NFL values the most out of its quarterbacks.

Joe Burrow, on the other hand, can help his team march the ball down the field one play at a time or go for broke with a single throw. Burrow led the NFL in yards per attempt last season (8.9) and finished second in passer rating behind Aaron Rodgers. The Bengals are in line for another explosive season and simply need to keep Burrow’s jersey clean against a fearsome Steelers pass rush. 

The Steelers only chance in this game is if they can rattle or knock Burrow out of the game entirely. In their two meetings in 2021, the Bengals won by a combined score of 65-20. The key stat across those two games was two, as in just two sacks for the Steelers defense. 

Betting Angle:

I don’t foresee a Super Bowl hangover for the Bengals against a team they completely figured out last season. Toss in an underwhelming passing attack from the Steelers and I don’t mind laying the points which are still under the key number of seven.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers-3 (52)

4:25p ET on CBS

Last season, the Super Bowl came home to Los Angeles and I think it will happen again in 2023. Just not for the Rams. The Chargers return a young and talented team around a potential MVP candidate at quarterback. Despite a mediocre 9-8 overall record, the Bolts scored impressive road wins at Kansas City, Philadelphia and Cincinnati. In my mind, that removed any doubts that this West Coast team could score big wins away from home. 

The Raiders were one of the most fascinating teams in the entire league last season, exceeding expectations during a tumultuous coaching change. But despite Rich Bisaccia excellent coaching job (7-5, playoff bid), they opted for NFL retread hire Josh McDaniels. The former Patriots assistant won six Super Bowls with Tom Brady serving in multiple roles, making him one of the most sought-after names in the coaching ranks. The problem is that McDaniels was just 11-17 when given a chance to led an NFL team (Denver). Can he do better with an established quarterback and playoff-caliber defense? Time will tell. 

With Justin Herbert on the verge of superstardom and a potentially devastating pass rush coming together for the Bolts (Mack, Bosa, Van Noy) this is the Chargers game to lose at SoFi Stadium. 

Betting Angle:

Point spreads are well-calibrated in the NFL and key numbers are more valuable than betting on college football games. At -3 I like the Chargers as a home favorite, but at 3.5 it’s a pass for me.