U.S. Economy Betting Odds: 68.22% Likelihood Of A Recession By April 2024

Updated: 390 Politics & Current Affairs

Is a recession a forgone conclusion in the US?

U.S. Economy Betting Odds: 68.22% Likelihood Of A Recession By April 2024
Michael Calabrese US Content Manager

Experienced sports journalist, College sports expert and broadcaster, hailing from Pennsylvania

  • According to YCharts, there is better than a 50% likelihood of a recession in the US starting in January of 2024.
  • The Conference Board is even more confident that we'll see a recession in 2024, citing their probability model's 99% likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months.
  • Statista placed the likelihood of a recession in the US by January of 2024 at 57.13%.

There have been storm clouds forming in the US economy for the past year and some economic forecasters believe that a recession is a forgone conclusion in the US in 2024. Three leading economic models from YChart, Statista and The Conference Board are all calling for a recession in the first quarter of '24. Sportsbooks have taken notice of this chatter and are now offering recession odds. 

U.S. Recession Odds In 2024

Will There Be An Economic Recession in 2024 Moneyline Probability
Yes -1500 93.75%
No +1250 7.41%

It's important to read the fine print before placing a bet on the U.S. economy. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the governing body that declares a recession in the United States. Their group of economists define a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” For this reason, sportsbooks won't be paying out recession bets in real-time. It's likely that if they're offering recession odds by quarterly, monthly or yearly time horizons, bettors will need to wait at least six months before those bets are confirmed by the NBER. 

YCharts offers recession projections up to 11 months into the future. As of today, they project the probability of a recession in January of 2024 at 57.13%, February at 54.49%, March at 57.77%, and finally April at 68.22%. It's worth noting that this is the highest likelihood of a recession they've predicted since they began offering projections in 2018. 

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