Many people bet based on headlines or hunches. I dig into research and market moves behind political odds & manager markets, so you can back decisions, not guesses.
- Luis Antonio Tagle now moves into the 2/1 favourite to be the next Pope
- There have been 10 Popes from Asia but none of them in the modern era
- Papal name of next Pope favourite to be Francis once again
Luis Antonio Tagle now moves into the 2/1 favourite to be the next Pope
Cardinal Luis Tagle, or Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle to give him his full name, has moved into the bookmakers favourite to become the first Asian Pope in more than 1000 years.
The latest betting market puts the 66-year-old as the clear favourite at 2/1 to take over as the next Pope with the betting odds changing around once again.
Tagle has a 33% implied probability given of becoming the next Pope according to those odds with Peter Erdo following behind him in the market at 8/1.
Hungarian Cardinal of the Catholic Church Erdo is second favourite in the market that other than Tagle is dominated by European candidates.
| Next Pope After Francis I | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Antonio Tagle (Phillipines) | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Peter Erdo (Hungary) | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Angelo Scola (Italy) | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Cristoph Schonborn (Austria) | 11/1 | 8.3% |
| Gianfranco Ravasi (Italy) | 20/1 | 4.8% |
What the expert says..
There have been 10 Popes from Asia but none of them in the modern era
Tagle has been referred to as becoming the first Asian Pope although this is something that has been fact-checked with PressOne giving the specific details.
Overall there have been 10 popes from Asia:
- five from modern-day Syria (St. Anicetus, Pope John V, Pope Sisinnius, Pope Constantine, and Pope Gregory III);
- three from modern-day Israel (St. Peter, St. Evaristus, and Pope Theodore I); and
- two from Anatolia in modern-day Turkey (Pope Conon and Pope John VI).
Papal name of next Pope favourite to be Francis once again
According to the latest betting market, there's a 44% chance that we see the next Pope also be called Francis with the current Pope the first to use that name.
The current Pope now became the first to use a new name since Pope Lando in 913-914 and it could be that we see Francis II sooner rather than later.
John Paul, Leo and John wrap up the top four of the betting market with various special markets offered for one of the biggest roles there is in religion.
| Papal Name of Next Pope | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Francis | 5/4 | 44.4% |
| John Paul | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Leo | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| John | 12/1 | 7.7% |
