Tom Brady's Next Team Betting Odds: +250 to Play for the Pats

Updated: 293 Sport

Mike Calabrese provides a look at where Tom Brady may call home next season, complete with sportsbooks betting odds and analysis.

Tom Brady's Next Team Betting Odds: +250 to Play for the Pats

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Michael Calabrese US Content Manager

Experienced sports journalist, College sports expert and broadcaster, hailing from Pennsylvania

  • Tom Brady is in danger of experiencing his first losing season as a professional.
  • Sportsbooks believe a New England reunion is the most likely outcome this offseason with odds of +250 to join the Pats
  • The Patriots have a top ten defense and the most cap space available to them of any serious Brady suitor.
  • Tom Brady wanted to be drafted by San Francisco back in 2001 and could complete a childhood dream by joining the 49ers.

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are in the thick of what can only be called a down year. Brady is in danger of finishing a season with a losing record for the first time in his illustrious career. While some of his statistical accomplishments remain in the top ten across the NFL, like his passing yardage and interception rate, his QBR checks in at 23rd. That puts him behind players like Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones, Marcus Mariota, Andy Dalton and Ryan Tannehill. 

Rumors are swirling that a change of scenery is likely for Brady this offseason, which begs the question, “where is Tom Brady headed next?”

Sportsbooks are on top of this question with official odds on his next landing spot already available in the market. 

Tom Brady's Destination In '23-'24 Odds Probability
New England Patriots +250 28.57%
San Francisco 49ers +350 22.22%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +500 16.67%
Retirement +750 11.76%
Las Vegas Raiders +1200 7.69%
Miami Dolphins +2000 4.76%
The Field +1250 7.41%

The New England Patriots are on the playoff bubble this season. The major issue with Bill Belichick’s team has been quarterback play. Mac Jones has regressed and is now 28th in QBR in the NFL. His backup, Bailey Zappe, has played significant snaps in four games. In three of those appearances his QBR has been sub-29. Brady, even at his advanced age, would be a major upgrade for a team with a bona fide top ten defense and the fourth-most projected cap room for 2023. His history with Belichick and owner Robert Kraft makes New England the most likely landing spot as of today. 

The San Francisco 49ers are another team that appear to be a quarterback away. They have the NFL’s top defense. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are two of the best offensive weapons in the NFL. And it doesn’t hurt that this was Tom Brady’s dream team when he was growing up in California in the late 80s and early 90s. The 49ers will have to great creative financially to make it work, but their cap situation isn’t a deal-breaker at the moment. 

It’s been a rollercoaster of a year for Brady, with his divorce and the Bucs’ struggles front page news. A fresh start would make sense and joining a team with an elite defense (NE, SF) would give him the best chance of making one last Super Bowl run.

Mike Calabrese - NFL Betting Expert -

Staying in Tampa Bay isn’t out of the realm of possibility. It will largely depend on how this season shakes out. Should Tampa Bay win the NFC South and win a game or two in the playoffs, Brady’s up-and-down season may be viewed in another light. But if they fail to qualify for the playoffs while Brady logs his first losing season as a professional, well, that could spell the end of Tampa Tom.

Could he retire? Given that he did just that last year, absolutely. But Brady has proven to be incredibly stubborn and wants to do things on his terms. Having the league push him out after a losing season could be a difficult pill to swallow. I wouldn’t count Brady out for next season unless he suffers a significant injury. 

Las Vegas and Miami currently have quality quarterbacks under contract, but contracts, like hearts, are made to be broken. Derek Carr carries with him a significant cap hit, but it’s possible they could move him to another team or cut him. Tua Tagovailoa has been great at times this season but one more head injury could prematurely end his career. Both are long shots and have been appropriately listed by sportsbook at +1200 and +2000. 

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