Experienced sports journalist, College sports expert and broadcaster, hailing from Pennsylvania
(5) San Diego State vs. (1) Alabama-7.5 (137.5)
6:30p on TBS
Alabama has overwhelmed teams on the offensive end by scoring in the two most efficient ways possible, which is from three-point range and at the rim. They finished with the second-highest percentage of their points at the rim or from long range. San Diego State defends both the interior and three-point range at an elite level making this a strength-on-strength battle in Louisville. It's worth noting that Alabama has struggled against elite defenses this season, losing by 15 points to UConn and nine points to Tennessee. But it's the Crimson Tide's defense that may win the day in the Sweet 16. Dating back to their title run in the SEC tournament, Alabama has held its last five opponents to just 59 points per game. And that includes 75 from Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in a blowout. If Alabama continues to elevate their play on the defensive end, there may not be a path to victory for any team in the field when facing the SEC champs.
The Aztecs have the defense to make life hard on the Crimson Tide and their struggling superstar Brandon Miller. The future NBA lottery pick is just 5-for-22 from the field in the NCAA Tournament.
Mike Calabrese - College Basketball Betting Expert - OLBG.com
San Diego State has the defense (5th in KenPom) to turn this game into a rock fight. But as I mentioned above, they'll need to find a way to crack this Alabama defense that is suffocating teams this month. The key will be Matt Bradley's shot-making. The Cal transfer is the Aztecs best offensive option and he's proven he can carry them against an SEC opponent already this season. His 23-point outing against Arkansas in the Maui Invitational nearly sparked a top-ten upset for SDSU. I also give the coaching edge to SDSU in this one. Since 2018, under Brian Dutcher, SDSU has won 40% of their games as an underdog, tops in the Mountain West, and 27th nationally. He is a master gameplanner, having covered over 60% of his games as a head coach when he has 4+ days to prepare.
(5) Miami (FL) vs. (1) Houston-7.5 (138.5)
7:15p on CBS
The Houston Cougars have won nine NCAA Tournament games since 2021 and that number could end up as high as 13 by the end of this year's Big Dance. Kelvin Sampson has built the Coogs into a well-oiled machine, posting top eight metrics on offense and defense this season (KenPom). According to Evan Miya, Houston has the highest ratio of 10-0 runs in their favor in all of college basketball. Those "Kill Shots," as he calls them, essentially break games wide open. They create them and they never allow them, a great combination. If Marcus Sasser's groin injury doesn't impact his play, UH should win this one going away.
The Sasser injury makes it difficult to play this game with any level of confidence. If he can play 30 minutes at his usual high-level, UH will win easily. But if he's a shell of himself, the Hurricanes have a chance to knock out the third #1 seed from this tournament.
Mike Calabrese - College Basketball Betting Expert - OLBG.com
On the other side of that coin, if Sasser is limited or leaves this game due to his injury, the Hurricanes have the shot-making ability to pull off a major upset. Miami's three-headed backcourt all averages over 13 points per game and shoots better than 35% from three. That gives them a chance to catch fire. Norchad Omier is the Canes' version of Dennis Rodman, snagging every rebound and loose ball. But even Omier can't paper over just how bad their defense can be at times. Miami has, far and away, the worst defense of any team remaining in the field and that includes the undersized Princeton Tigers. If they do slip past Houston, it'll require a Sasser injury, some three-point variance luck (bricks from UH) and a lot of triples falling for UM.
(15) Princeton vs. (6) Creighton-10.5 (139.5)
9:00p on TBS
Princeton is a phenomenal story. They've already made the deepest Ivy League run since Cornell in 2010. They dispatched Arizona, a team that spent a large chunk of the season in the AP Top Five. Then they overwhelmed the Missouri Tigers with a barrage of three pointers and arguably their best defensive performance of the season. Tosan Evbuomwan is the Tigers heart and soul, a "point forward" who facilitates the offense and stuffs the stat sheet. He'll need to be as prolific on the offensive end as he was in the Ivy League tournament when he scored 21 points in back-to-back games to help the Tigers punch their ticket to the Big Dance. If he's anything less than special against a dangerous Creighton team, the Ivy League champs will be drawing dead in their upset bid.
Princeton is a great story, but Creighton is rounding into national title contender shape. I'll add CU-550 on the moneyline to a few of my parlays as a sweetener.
Mike Calabrese - College Basketball Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Creighton had the statistical profile of a potential national champion coming into this tournament. They are now top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and are coming off an impressive win over Baylor. They crushed the three seed, scoring 85 points. Ryan Nembhard scored 30 points, illustrating that Creighton has elite scoring options at all five starting positions. All five starters for CU have scored at least 25 points in one game this season. They've also become an elite defensive rebounding team that rarely turns the ball over. What that means is that the Bluejays never beat themselves and don't give their opportunities second-chance opportunities. This spread is just about right, but don't expect Princeton to flirt with the outright upset down the stretch.
(3) Xavier vs. (2) Texas-4.5 (149.5)
9:45p on CBS
Xavier was flirting with disaster in the first round, requiring a sizable comeback to knock off Kennesaw State. They followed that up with a complete performance against Pitt, drilling the Panthers with a wire-to-wire win. Now Xavier must face one of the most balanced teams in the field in the Texas Longhorns. Xavier has struggled to contain high-scoring teams this season and enter with the second-worst eFG% defense of teams remaining in the field. That will necessitate the Musketeers outscoring UT, which is doable if they get to the line early and often. The Longhorns foul a decent amount and allow nearly 19 foul shot attempts per game (224th). The X-Men attempted 26 shots at the charity stripe against Pitt, but only netted 16. They'll need to make every opportunity count in this potential shootout.
Texas is a wagon right now and Xavier doesn't have the interior defense to slow down their low-post threats, namely the resurgent Dylan Disu.
Mike Calabrese - College Basketball Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Texas is rolling right now. Since March 4th, they've downed three nationally ranked opponents and ended the Nittany Lions dream season in the Round of 32. Dylan Disu has come out of nowhere, pumping in 20 points per game across his last four after averaging just eight during the regular season. What does that mean for Texas? Just another reliable offensive threat to help them around the basket. The Longhorns turn teams over regularly and do a great job of protecting the basketball, and that hasn't changed in the NCAA Tournament. What has changed is their work on the glass. After getting bullied during the regular season, UT has limited both opponents thus far to just nine offensive boards per game. If they keep that up against Xavier, they should cover this spread while advancing to the Elite Eight.
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