March Madness 2023: The Final Four Is Set, UConn Sits As A -125 Favorite

Updated: 6 Sport

Devin Ellington provides an overview of this year's Final Four complete with odds and advanced stats.

March Madness 2023: The Final Four Is Set, UConn Sits As A -125 Favorite
Devin Ellington Basketball Editor

Devin Anthony Ellington is OLBGs expert Basketball writer. He has previously contributed to numerous quality publications including ESPN.

  • FAU (opened at +40000, now +600) becomes first C-USA team to make the Final Four.
  • Miami (+490) reaches first Final Four in school history.
  • UConn (-125) is now the odds-on favorite.

For the first time this season, the Connecticut Huskies are now the odds-on betting favorites to win the National Championship. Coach Hurleys’ team has dominated on its way to the Final Four, winning three games in a row by 15+ points. Per, UConn has a significantly higher adjusted efficiency +/- than what Kansas had last year as the national champion. Over the course of the last twenty three NCAA tournaments, the Huskies have won three championships (all three with different coaches), with a championship this year, UConn would own nearly 25% of the national championships over the span of the last twenty three years. The Huskies have made it to their first Final Four since 2014, of which they won the title. Since early December, the Huskies have been ranked as a Top-6 team even when they suffered six losses in eight games during conference play. The Huskies rank second in OREB%, per Torvik–UConn grabs nearly 39% of all offensive rebounds, the other three teams remaining collect about 31% of all offensive rebounds.

College Basketball National Championship 2023 Odds

Team Moneyline Probability
UConn Huskies -125 55.56%
San Diego State Aztecs +360 21.74%
Miami Hurricanes +490
Florida Atlantic Owls +600 14.29%

In this section, we will focus on the San Diego State Aztecs, who are luckily not facing the UConn Huskies. SDSU (+360) is representing the Mountain West Conference, a league that has never sent a team to the Final Four. San Diego State is ranked 1st for adjusted efficiency on defense in all of CBB over the last ten games played. The Aztecs and the Owls are set to face off in what could be a defensive clinic–of the Final Four teams, FAU and SDSU hold the two bottom ranked offenses while both of their defenses are elite. These two teams are ranked 15th and 18th for eFG% on defense, the Aztecs hold an offensive advantage over the Owls for free throw attempt rate, ranking nearly one hundred spots higher than FAU. A key player to watch for the Aztecs is Adam Seiko, who is their quiet leader. Seiko is the teams’ best shooter from deep, 15-foot plus two pointers, and in terms of both true shooting percentage and eFG% this year.

For the very first time, the Final Four will be played without a 1, 2, or 3-seed. Adding in the fact that two mid-majors have crashed the national semifinals, we have clear proof that this has been the best and most chaotic NCAAT tourney ever.

Devin Anthony Ellington - College Basketball Expert -

The remaining two schools are both from the state of Florida. The Hurricanes of Miami (FL) and the Owls of Florida Atlantic round out the Final Four. Both programs will be making their Final Four debuts. Jim Larranagas' team has a unique style of play which frustrates teams while operating as a highly-efficient offense. The Canes (+490) have made two straight Elite Eights under Larranaga. Miami had not made any Elite Eight appearances prior to the arrival of Coach L. The Canes beat the MVC champs in Drake during their first round game, ousted 4-seed Indiana, beat top-seeded Houston in the Sweet 16, and then overcame a 13-point deficit to knock off Texas in their Elite 8 game. The 35-3 Owls have had an interesting path to their Final Four matchup with SDSU. Florida Atlantic (+600) beat Memphis in their 1st round matchup, eliminated the Belle of the Ball in Fairleigh Dickinson, expelled the Vols of Tennessee in the Sweet 16, and went the distance with 3-seed Kansas State inside of Madison Square Garden on Saturday. In my opinion, other than UConn, the Owls are the team capable of beating all other Final Four participants. FAU offers immense balance as a team–the Owls are the only team in the Final Four to be ranked in the Top-35 for both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency, in addition to being the only team ranked inside of the Top-25 in offensive and defensive eFG%; FAU is also the best remaining 2P% defense. (Torvik)      

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