Donald Trump Incarceration Odds: Is A Plea Agreement On The Table For The Former President?

Updated: 96 Politics & Current Affairs

Will the 45th President see the inside of a jail cell?

Donald Trump Incarceration Odds: Is A Plea Agreement On The Table For The Former President?
Michael Calabrese US Content Manager

Experienced sports journalist, College sports expert and broadcaster, hailing from Pennsylvania

  • His latest indictment includes 37 separate charges.
  • Legal experts believe a plea agreement is unlikely.
  • A former president has never served jail time.

Could Donald Trump actually face prison time if convicted? That's the million-dollar question. Two weeks ago the 45th president was hit with a 37-count federal indictment. The 49-page document was unsealed and released to the media, and on its face, it appears to be more serious than his March indictment in New York. If he violated the Espionage Act, he could become the first president to see the inside of a prison cell in US history. Sportsbooks placed the odds of him serving prison for his March indictment at +2000, but his recent legal trouble has caused them to reevaluate that market. 

Will Donald Trump Serve Prison Time

Odds Probability
Yes +1000 9.09%
No -1500 93.75%

It may take more than a year for Trump to appear in court for either of his cases. Prosecutors and Trump's legal team will be filing briefs, exchanging documents, and potentially meeting to negotiate a plea agreement between now and then. 

Will Donald Trump Accept A Plea Agreement With State Or Federal Prosecutors 

Odds Probability
Yes +200 33.33%
No -400 80%

While Trump remains adamant that he has done nothing wrong, the mounting pressure may force him and his legal team to the negotiation table. Prior to his federal indictment, the odds of him taking a plea deal were set at +300 Yes / -500 No. While this market has only shifted slightly, it is still worth noting the movement. 

Will Donald Trump End Up On The 2024 Ballot?

Odds Probability
Yes -2500 96.15%
No +2000 4.76%

His chances of winning the Republican nomination remain incredibly strong. Even with all of these issues, he has maintained a virtually insurmountable lead against fellow Republicans. And if there is any major delay in his criminal cases, he could push off all legal ramifications to 2025. 

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