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- Cardinal Robert Prevost elected as the next Pope, taking over from Pope Francis.
- The American-born cardinal was priced at 66/1 before the Conclave as a massive outsider.
- His election stunned bettors, with favourites like Parolin and Tagle passed over.
66/1 Surprise: Robert Prevost Elected New Pope
In one of the biggest surprises in modern papal history, Cardinal Robert Prevost has been elected the new Pope, shocking betting markets where he was priced as a 66/1 outsider.
Prevost, a U.S.-born Augustinian with deep connections to Latin America and the Vatican’s Congregation for Bishops, was barely mentioned in most Conclave forecasts.
His election represents a major shift in the expected trajectory of the Catholic Church’s leadership.
Prevost will take the name Pope Leo XIV.
What the expert says...
Who Is Robert Prevost?
Born in Chicago, USA, and fluent in Spanish, French, and Italian, Prevost brings a global background to the papacy.
He served as bishop in Peru for nearly a decade before being called to Rome in 2020 to lead the powerful Dicastery for Bishops.
A moderate with a reputation for diplomacy and discretion, Prevost’s election signals a desire for unifying leadership that reflects the Church’s increasing global diversity.
Punters Left Stunned
With betting markets dominated by European and Asian favourites, very few saw Prevost’s rise coming.
His 66/1 starting price placed him among longshots with just 1.5% implied probability of being chosen.
By contrast, names like Pietro Parolin, Luis Antonio Tagle, and Matteo Zuppi attracted most of the market attention.
The outcome marks one of the biggest upsets in recent papal election betting history.
How the Odds Looked Pre-Conclave
| Candidate | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 10/3 | 23.1% |
| Matteo Zuppi | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Robert Sarah | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Robert Prevost | 66/1 | 1.5% |
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