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- Odds of a US recession in 2025 are now at evens (1/1) with a 50% implied probability.
- "No recession" sits at 5/4 (44.4%), meaning markets are tilting toward a downturn.
- Forbes reports Goldman Sachs places the probability at 45%, warning of an “event-driven downturn.”
Recession Fears Grow as Trump Hits First 100 Days
As President Trump marks his first 100 days back in office, there's now a 50% chance of a US recession by the end of 2025, according to the latest odds from top betting sites.
Bookies have priced “Yes” for a 2025 recession at evens (1/1), while “No” has drifted to 5/4, implying just a 44.4% chance that the US will avoid an economic downturn this year.
The betting line movement aligns closely with Wall Street sentiment.
A recent Forbes report cites Goldman Sachs reaffirming a 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months, highlighting risks tied to geopolitical instability, rising interest rates, and declining consumer confidence.
| Will there be a US Recession in 2025? | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1/1 | 50.0% |
| No | 5/4 | 44.4% |
What the expert says...
How Does This Compare to Recent Recessions?
📉 Early 1990s Recession (1990–91)
- Lasted 8 months, peak unemployment hit 7.8%
- Triggered by inflation fears, high interest rates, and the 1990 oil shock
- GDP contracted by −1.4%
📉 Early 2000s Recession (2001)
- Triggered by the dot-com crash and 9/11 attacks
- Mild and brief: GDP down −0.3%, unemployment peaked at 6.3%
📉 Great Recession (2007–09)
- Deepest recession since WWII
- Caused by the housing crash and financial sector collapse
- GDP fell −5.1%, unemployment surged to 10.0%
📉 COVID-19 Recession (2020)
- Shortest on record, lasting just 2 months
- GDP nosedived −19.2% and unemployment spiked to 14.7% in April 2020
- Triggered by lockdowns and a sudden halt to economic activity
What's Driving 2025 Recession Concerns?
- Sticky inflation and elevated interest rates continue to weigh on consumer demand and business investment.
- Unemployment remains historically low, but leading indicators show softening labour demand.
- Corporate earnings and GDP growth have slowed in Q1, raising red flags for Q2.
- Political instability and global tensions, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Pacific, could trigger an “event-driven downturn” as noted by Goldman Sachs.
With consumer confidence wobbling and key sectors such as tech and real estate under pressure, a recession before year-end is no longer a fringe scenario, it’s the favourite.
Top 10 Political Betting Websites in the UK
Where to Bet on Economic Markets
While niche, recession betting markets will be available at select betting sites if things continue as they are, especially those offering political and financial specials.
Explore our guide to the latest free bets and visit the best political betting sites for broader geopolitical markets including election outcomes, Fed rate decisions, and global indices.
