US Presidential Election Odds: JD Vance Favourite as Trump 16/1 Amid Third Term Talk

JD Vance is 9/4 favourite to be the next US President with William Hill. Donald Trump has teased a third term, but constitutional rules bar it, leaving him at 16/1. We examine the odds and key contenders.
US Presidential Election Odds: JD Vance Favourite as Trump 16/1 Amid Third Term Talk

Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

Jake Ashton
Jake Ashton - Your Betting Odds Guide 👍

I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.

  • JD Vance 9/4 favourite to be the next US President with William Hill
  • Donald Trump 16/1 after hinting at a third term, despite constitutional ban
  • Gavin Newsom (9/2) and AOC (10/1) also among leading contenders

JD Vance Leads as Trump Teases Third Term

The race to be the next US President is beginning to take shape, with JD Vance emerging as the early favourite with UK Betting Sites

However, speculation this week has centred around Donald Trump, who teased a possible third term despite being constitutionally barred from serving again.

Vance is the 9/4 favourite to succeed in 2028, positioning him as the natural heir to Trumpism within the Republican Party. 

His growing profile and alignment with Trump’s base make him a serious early frontrunner.

William Hill's latest odds give a 30.8% chance that Vance is the next US President, with Trump's probability at 5.9%.

Trump Teases Third Term

Photos posted on Trump’s Truth Social account showed “Trump 2028” hats on his desk during a meeting with congressional leaders, sparking fresh speculation that the former President could try to extend his political career.

But under the 22nd Amendment, Trump cannot legally serve a third term. Amending the Constitution requires either:

  • A two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate, or
  • Two-thirds of state legislatures calling a constitutional convention, followed by three-fourths ratification.

Both routes are extraordinarily difficult, making Trump’s 16/1 odds largely reflective of the immense hurdles ahead.

Next US President Odds

CandidateOddsImplied Probability
JD Vance9/430.8%
Gavin Newsom9/218.2%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez10/19.1%
Marco Rubio12/17.7%
Pete Buttigieg12/17.7%
Donald Trump Jr16/15.9%
Donald Trump Sr16/15.9%

Expert Insight

What the expert says...
Trump’s third-term talk may excite his base, but constitutionally it’s almost impossible. JD Vance’s 9/4 favouritism reflects the belief he’s the candidate most likely to carry the Republican flag forward. Newsom remains the Democrats’ strongest hope in the market.

Jake Ashton - Political Betting Expert - OLBG.com

Where To Bet on US Politics

US election markets are already available with major UK betting sites such as William Hill.

Punters can also claim free bets when wagering on political markets. 

Our guide to the best political betting sites explains where to find top value on elections and global politics.

4.1 / 5 181 Ratings
  • Rank in our top 10s for ten different categories
  • Live stream horse racing, basketball (NBA), football, cricket and tennis matches through William Hill TV

What Happens Next?

The early focus will remain on whether Trump continues to tease a 2028 run, but the constitutional block leaves the path clearer for names like Vance, Newsom, and Ocasio-Cortez.

As the primaries edge closer, expect odds to shorten rapidly for whichever candidates officially declare.

No Comments

There are no comments here. Be the first to comment...

Please login or register to reply to this news article
KEEP READING
US Presidential Election Odds: JD Vance Favourite as Trump 16/1 Amid Third Term Talk

US Presidential Election Odds: JD Vance Favourite as Trump 16/1 Amid Third Term Talk

JD Vance is 9/4 favourite to be the next US President with William Hill. Donald Trump has teased a third term, but constitutional rules bar it, leaving him at 16/1. We examine the odds and key contenders.
Continue Reading
Pope Leo XIV Favourite in Time Person of the Year 2025 Betting Odds

Pope Leo XIV Favourite in Time Person of the Year 2025 Betting Odds

Pope Leo XIV is 7/4 favourite to be named Time Person of the Year 2025, ahead of AI and Donald Trump at 5/2. We break down the latest odds, market movers, and where to bet on this annual award.
Continue Reading
Political Betting Specials: Bookmakers Price 25% Chance of Boris Johnson Joining Reform UK

Political Betting Specials: Bookmakers Price 25% Chance of Boris Johnson Joining Reform UK

Boris Johnson has distanced himself from Reform UK, calling the party “extremely dangerous” but bookmakers still make him 3/1 to join before the next General Election. We examine the odds, political context, and where to bet.
Continue Reading