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- UK saw its hottest May 1st on record, hitting 29.3°C earlier this month.
- 2/1 odds that the 40.3°C record (set July 2022) will be broken this year.
- Odds have shortened from 3/1 earlier this year amid growing climate concern.
May Heatwave Sends Weather Betting Markets Soaring
Britain’s heatwave has arrived early, with temperatures hitting 29.3°C on May 1st which was the warmest start to May on record, according to the Met Office.
As a result, betting markets have responded with betting odds now at just 2/1 that the UK will see a new all-time high temperature in 2025, surpassing the current record of 40.3°C, which was set on 19 July 2022 in Lincolnshire.
Back in January, as we reported here, the same market was priced at 3/1 with only a 25% chance implied.
That figure has now climbed to 33%, as forecasters warn of prolonged dry and hot conditions into June.
| Weather Betting Specials | Odds* | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Hottest Day in UK recorded in 2025 | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Wettest Year on record | 8/1 | 11.1% |
*As betting sites currently aren't taking bets on this event, odds have been compiled as theoretical probability from an entertainment perspective only and come from an industry expert
What the expert says...
Climate Context: A Trend, Not a Fluke?
The rising odds reflect not just a one-off heat spike, but an ongoing trend of record-breaking summers in the UK and across Europe.
The 2022 record shocked meteorologists at the time but extreme highs are now becoming part of summer forecasts.
With June and July still to come, and long-range forecasts pointing to a dry, hot stretch, punters and weather watchers are closely monitoring heatwaves, particularly in the South East and East Anglia, traditionally the UK's hottest regions.
Betting On The Weather With Bookmakers
Where to Bet on Weather Markets
Weather betting specials, including record temperatures, monthly rainfall totals, and first snowfall dates, are available at a handful of UK betting sites.
These novelty markets typically spike in activity during extreme weather spells.
Check out the latest free bets and browse our weather betting specials guide via our entertainment betting coverage.
