Many people bet based on headlines or hunches. I dig into research and market moves behind political odds & manager markets, so you can back decisions, not guesses.
- Fine Gael Leader and current Taioseach unlikely to change before the new year
- Bookmakers have Leo Varadkar as 60% chance of still leading in 2023
- Simon Coveney is the 10/11 favourite to be the next Fine Gael Leader
- Mary Lou McDonald is the clear favourite to become the next Taioseach
It is pretty unlikely anything at the head of the Irish government will happen prior to the end of the year and for that reason, Leo Varadkar is given a 60% chance of remaining in place into 2022.
Discussions of a United Ireland continues as does the betting and we take a look at the candidates to keep an eye on throughout 2022.
Betting sites have Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald as the favourite to be next Taioseach suggesting a change on government is imminent, although the next General Election is not scheduled until 2025
If Sinn Fein does win most seats in the next election then a united Ireland is expected to gain even more momentum.
Each price represents a percentage in the bookmaker's markets as you can see.
| Party | Most Seats | Percentage Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Sinn Fein | 1/2 | 66.67% |
| Fine Gael | 8/5 | 38.46% |
| Fianna Fail | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Green | 67/1 | 1.49% |
| Labour | 67/1 | 1.49% |
| Social Democrats | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Betting on politics is growing with the best betting sites offering a range of odds from a host of countries.
We saw in the US Election of 2020 when Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump that there is a healthy appetite for placing bets on political outcomes.
Irish Reunification betting will be affected should there be a switch-up in the leading party in Ireland, meanwhile there is also betting on who will be the next permanent leader of Fine Gail party.
Next Fine Gail Leader Betting
| Candidate | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Simon Coveney | 10/11 | 52.38% |
| Simon Harris | 10/3 | 23.08% |
| Paschal Donohue | 5/1 | 16.67% |
| Helen McEntee | 9/1 | 10% |
