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Bookies Offer 1000/1 Odds for United Ireland Referendum Before 2023 or 11/10 before 2030

Published: Sep 14, 11:26am Last Updated: Sep 15, 9:15am 0 Comments 17 Views

Bookmakers are offering odds of when an United Ireland referendum could take place

Bookmakers think there is a 99% chance that no referendum will take place on Irish reunification before 2023 - You'll win only £1 for every £1000 you bet on the outcome.

Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert -

Thoughts of a United Ireland could not have been further away in pre-Brexit days, but since 2016 and certainly, since the turn of the year, the possibility of reunification of the Republic and the Northern lands has been under speculation.

Whilst the possibility is now in the consciousness of both sides of Ireland, Betting sites are readily discounting the possibility of a rumoured reunification referendum - For the time being at least.

Some bookmakers have opened betting on the possibility of the public vote taking place and have put a date of the end of 2022 as a line in the sand. They are, at present discounting the chance with a 99% possibility that it will NOT happen with odds of 1000/1 that it will.

Some punters are betting it will happen but whilst odds of just 5/1 are available, shrewd bettors are looking for closer to 100/1 for the chance of a vote to happen in time.

Irish Reunification Betting Odds

Bookmakers odds of a reunification referendum taking place in Ireland before 2023

Vote to take place Odds Probability
Yes 5/1 16.67%
No 1/1000 99.01%

**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 14/9/2021

Could it Happen

There are many things that would have to happen for a referendum prospectus to be released and the voting process to be organised in such a short period of time, hence the huge odds on the possibility. 

One announcement could shorten the odds however as we have recently seen with announcements affecting the betting on a Scottish Independence referendum

Taking a longer-term view on the possibility and extending the date out beyond the end of 2022 and for it to happen before 2030, the odds shorten considerably to 11/10 making it a 48% chance.

Longer-term betting investors might be tempted to take the 11/10 odds and 47% probability available with bookmakers that the referendum will take place before 2030

Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert -

99% Chances sometimes lose!

As unlikely as the possibility of the United Irish Referendum might be deemed by bookmakers, punters are willing to bet at 100/1 that it will happen before 2023; let's not forget huge probabilities can be overturned and even bigger shock results have happened in the world of betting.

Big Odds Bets in Numbers

  • 500/1 - Emma Raducanu to win SPOTY
  • 1000/1 - 62 bets landed on in running horse racing in 2019
  • 5000/1 - Leicester City to win the Premier League in 2015/16

As recently as last week you could have bet on Emma Radacanu to win Sports Personality of the year at 500/1. After winning the US Open, her 0.02% chance has risen to 90% and the odds have turned to just 1/12

There has been a bigger odds winner in recent times though - In the 2015/16 Premier League season, Leicester City were complete outsiders at 5000/1 to win the top tier league of football in the UK - They did so although most winning bets were struck at prices between 100/1 and 500/1 during the season as chances still looked slim.

1000/1 winners happen all the time in horse racing, but more often 1/1000 bets are lost betting in running as runners looking certain to win, tie-up and are beaten on the line or the jockey makes a fatal mistake or falls off. In 2019 there were no fewer than 62 occasions when bets of 1000/1 were made, laid, won and lost in running.

Punters are willing to bet at odds of 100/1 with bookmakers that a United Ireland referendum will take place - Unlikely outcomes do happen from time to time, Just look at Leicester City to win the Premier League in 2016

Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert -


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