Jake is a Football and Entertainment betting expert, with a Man City season ticket and a deep knowledge of reality TV betting angles
- Runcorn and North Helsby By-Election takes place Thursday, May 1.
- Reform UK are odds-on favourites at 2/5 to win the newly created Cheshire constituency.
- Labour trail at 7/4, with all other parties and independents 66/1 or bigger.
Reform UK Head into By-Election as Clear Favourites
With polling set for Thursday, May 1, the latest odds show Reform UK firmly in control of the betting market for the Runcorn and North Helsby By-Election.
Reform’s price has moved from 4/11 earlier this month to 2/5, according to Star Sports, confirming their status as the clear frontrunner.
In our previous update Reform were given a 73% chance which has now drifted to over 71% again with slight market fluctuation.
Labour sit at 7/4 with UK Betting Sites and will be needing a strong local turnout and tactical support to pull off a comeback win.
| Runcorn and Helsby By-Election Winner | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 2/5 | 71.4% |
| Labour | 7/4 | 36.4% |
| Workers Party of Britain | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| Conservatives | 100/1 | 1.0% |
| Alan McKie (Independent) | 200/1 | 0.5% |
What the expert says...
Jake Ashton - Senior News Editor - OLBG.com
Labour Faces Uphill Battle in Reform-Dominated Race
Despite national momentum, Labour remain second favourites in Runcorn and North Helsby which is a key marginal area formed in boundary changes.
The 7/4 price suggests the party is still competitive but faces a tough task to unseat Reform, whose campaign has resonated locally on issues such as immigration, crime, and housing.
The Conservatives, Workers Party of Britain, and all independent candidates trail at long odds signalling a likely two-horse race unless turnout surprises the market.
Top 10 Political Betting Websites in the UK
Where to Bet on the Runcorn and North Helsby By-Election
Markets for the Runcorn and North Helsby By-Election are available now at select betting sites, with the latest prices led by Star Sports.
If you’re backing a party or spotting late value, don’t forget to check for free bets ahead of polling day.
For a wider look at UK political markets, explore our top political betting sites guide.
