Jake is a Football and Entertainment betting expert, with a Man City season ticket and a deep knowledge of reality TV betting angles
- Rishi Sunak now 5/4 to leave role as Prime Minister in 2024 following dour local elections
- Kemi Badenoch is betting favourite to be the next Conservative leader after Sunak
- Labour Majority now 8/13 to be Government after next election
Rishi Sunak now 5/4 to leave role as Prime Minister in 2024 following dour local elections
Political betting is hotting up this week after Thursday's local elections heaped further pressure on Prime Minster Rishi Sunak with the Conservatives losing a third of their council seats so far on Friday morning.
In results that Sky News have called a 'hammering', the Tories are expected to post a final tally that will cause shockwaves around their party and concerns ahead of a General Election.
Bookies now say that Sunak is 5/4 to leave his role as Prime Minister in 2024 with the leader of the Tories reportedly planning an Autumn 2024 General Election.
The Telegraph reported back at the start of April that October and November have been pencilled in for a nationwide vote to give them "the best chance of a shock victory".
| Year Rishi Sunak is replaced as PM | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| 2024 | 5/4 | 44.4% |
| 2025 or later | 5/6 | 54.5% |
Kemi Badenoch is betting favourite to be the next Conservative leader after Sunak
Betting is also available around who Rishi Sunak's replacement will be as leader of the Conservative Party and it's Kemi Badenoch who leads the way in the odds.
Badenoch ran for the Tory leadership back in 2022 and it's expected that she'll do so again if Sunak loses the General Election.
The latest betting odds have Badenoch as the 7/2 favourite to lead the Tories next with former PM and Tory leader Boris Johnson the 4/1 second favourite in the market.
Next Conservative Leader Betting Odds
Labour Majority now 8/13 to be Government after next election
Following the local election results throughout Friday, bookies have now made a Labour Majority the favourite outcome after the next General Election.
Paddy Power say that Labour will win with a Labour Minority the second favourite in the betting market ahead of Conservatives Majority which is the third favourite outcome.
Sir Keir Starmer will be rubbing his hands in glee at the thought of the General Election after the outcome in the local elections and his party are now 1/6 to get the most seats.
| Government after next election | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour Majority | 8/13 | 61.9% |
| Labour Minority | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Conservatives Majority | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Labour/Lib Dem Coalition | 15/2 | 11.8% |
| Conservatives Minority | 10/1 | 9.1% |
