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- Johnson odds with bookies to make an Exit in 2022 trimmed from 3/1 into 9/4
- Better than EVENS chance with bookmakers that Johnson will be PM at the next General election
- Rishi Sunak odds-on to be replaced as Chancellor in 2022 according to bookies.
- Markets have not been as volatile as expected after conviction and fine news breaking on Tuesday
Following confirmation that both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer have been fined in relation to illegal gatherings during the COVID restrictions, their positions have been called untenable and heads have been called for.
So we have taken a look to see how the various political betting markets have been affected at betting sites in wake of the news.
Boris Johnson Markets
There are a wide range of political betting markets featuring the current PM including the next Prime Minister betting odds, and here are a couple of the major ones we might expect some movement in the coming days, although surprisingly there seems to have been no immediate effect with the recent news and fascinating fact that this is the first time a serving PM has been convicted of a crime whilst in office.
Boris Johnson Exit Date Betting Odds
if we go back to January this year there was a 75% chance that Johnson would leave office in 2022, whilst that price has drifted remarkably to just 30% today, it has been as low as 22% just a few days ago.
| Exit Date | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.25 | 30.77% |
| 2023 | 4.00 | 25.00% |
| 2024 or later | 2.00 | 50.00% |
To be Conservative Leader at the Next General Election
He is still favoured by the bookmakers and punters to be the PM when the next general election comes around. And in fact that position has strengthened today, having been only a 42% chance at the start of the month rising to a 52% chance today
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.90 | 52.63% |
| No | 2.10 | 47.62% |
So that is how the betting public are viewing the strength of Boris's position in the Government, let's take a look at Rishi Sunak and if his odds have shifted as a result
Rishi Sunak Markets
Sunak has never been a short-priced favourite to take over from Boris Johnson in the Next Conservative Leader betting, but there are some other interesting markets to consider, including being replaced as Chancellor this year
Sunak to be replaced as Chancellor in 2022
There is more than one reason why Sunak might be replaced as Chancellor, one is leaving the cabinet entirely, the other becoming PM of course. Whichever the case, punters are offered to bet on him being replaced in his current position in 2022 as a 57% chance
| to be replaced in 2022 | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Replaced | 1.75 | 57.14% |
| Remain | 2.05 | 48.78% |
