I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- Donald Trump is 2/1 favourite to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize as bookies open early odds.
- His frontrunner status follows another year of public hints at seeking recognition from the Nobel Committee.
- We break down the contenders, implied probabilities and where punters can grab free bets.
Trump Installed as Early 2/1 Favourite for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize
Betting sites have wasted no time in publishing odds for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with US President Donald Trump leading the early market at 2/1.
Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to win the award, referencing diplomatic achievements and often comparing himself to past laureates.
Despite being backed by punters for recent years’ prizes, the award has continued to elude him including in 2025, where he had briefly been favourite earlier in the year.
This year's award went instead to María Corina Machado, Venezuela’s opposition leader, praised by the Nobel Committee as “one of the most extraordinary examples of civilian courage in Latin America in recent times.”
Her decades-long campaign against Nicolás Maduro’s regime was recognised globally as a symbol of democratic resistance.
With the landscape resetting ahead of the 2026 award, the betting market has reopened — and Trump sits prominently at the top once again.
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 Winner Odds
| Nobel Peace Prize 2026 Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| United Nations Relief & Works Agency for Palestine (UNRWA) | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Greta Thunberg | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| International Court of Justice (ICJ) | 30/1 | 3.2% |
Why Trump Leads the Market
Donald Trump’s status as early favourite at 2/1 is driven by three major factors:
1. Persistent Self-Positioning
Trump has repeatedly highlighted his desire for a Nobel Peace Prize, citing his diplomatic efforts with North Korea, the Middle East and other negotiations during his presidency.
2. Media Amplification
His public comments receive widespread coverage, naturally influencing betting interest and shortening prices.
3. Polarising but Recognisable Global Figure
High-profile nominations often dominate early betting markets regardless of political alignment. Trump remains one of the most internationally recognisable political figures and betting demand tends to follow visibility.
UNRWA: A Serious Institutional Contender at 8/1
United Nations Relief & Works Agency for Palestine (UNRWA) is priced at 8/1, reflecting global attention on humanitarian operations in conflict zones.
The Nobel Committee has regularly recognised organisations contributing to peace, stability and humanitarian support, making UNRWA a viable institutional candidate if geopolitical conditions remain volatile in 2026.
Its odds position highlights how institutional bodies often sit just behind controversial or politically charged frontrunners in early markets.
Greta Thunberg at 25/1: A Longshot But Not Impossible
Climate activist Greta Thunberg continues to appear in long-range Nobel markets.
Despite being widely tipped in previous years, she has yet to secure the award. At 25/1, her chances for 2026 are modest.
Institutions like the International Court of Justice (ICJ) have long been part of Nobel conversations, particularly during periods of global tension.
At 30/1, ICJ sits as the outsider but if its rulings or interventions significantly impact international peace in 2026, its price could narrow rapidly.
